FI Evening Grain Comments 09/19/22

PDF Attached

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

USDA
US crop conditions

US
CORN – 52 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 53 PCT WK AGO (59 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
CORN – 7 PCT HARVESTED VS 5 PCT WK AGO (8 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
CORN – 87 PCT DENTED VS 77 PCT WK AGO (88 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
CORN – 40 PCT MATURE VS 25 PCT WK AGO (45 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SOYBEAN – 55 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 56 PCT WK AGO (58 PCT YR AGO)

US
SOYBEANS – 3 PCT HARVESTED (5 PCT YR) (5 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SOYBEANS – 42 PCT DROPPING LEAVES VS 22 PCT WK AGO (47 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
WINTER WHEAT – 21 PCT PLANTED VS 10 PCT WK AGO (17 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
WINTER WHEAT – 2 PCT EMERGED (3 PCT YR) (2 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SPRING WHEAT – 94 PCT HARVESTED VS 85 PCT WK AGO (94 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 11 PCT HARVESTED VS 8 PCT WK AGO (11 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 33 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 33 PCT WK AGO (64 PCT YR AGO)

US
COTTON – 59 PCT BOLLS OPENING VS 49 PCT WK AGO (51 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
RICE – 72 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 72 PCT WK AGO (76 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
RICE – 45 PCT HARVESTED VS 34 PCT WK AGO (51 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

 

Soybeans,
meal and corn ended higher. Soybean oil and wheat traded lower. US harvesting is expected to ramp up this week bias Delta and lower Midwest with a weather outlook calling for mostly dry conditions. Hot and dry conditions are seen for the southwestern hard
red winter wheat growing areas over the next two weeks. Brazil will see widespread rains this week, favoring early development for recently planted corn and lessor extent soybeans. Argentina is still battling a drought and we could see the local exchanges
start to lower their estimates for soybeans and corn planting areas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

La
Nina set to hit SA for third straight year

 

World
Weather, INC.

WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH

• Argentina
  received some important rain during the weekend
• Moisture
  totals in La Pampa, eastern Cordoba, central and southern Santa Fe and western Buenos Aires ranged from 0.05 to 0.43 inch with local totals to 1.00 inch in east-central Cordoba and to 0.75 inch in Santa Fe through 2000 GMT
  
• Eastern
  La Pampa reported many amounts of 0.79 to 1.65 inches
• Temperatures
  were warm with highs in the 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit in the south and in the upper 80s and lower 90s in the north
• Argentina’s
  rain during the weekend was welcome to winter wheat areas that have been trending too dry in recent weeks. Improved crop establishment and development rates are likely, although follow up rain will be important. The moisture will also be good for improve sunseed
  and early corn planting and establishment. Much more rain is needed to ease long term dryness.
  
• As
  of Thursday, Sep. 15, sunseed planting was 18% complete most of which was in Entre Rios, Santa Fe and Chaco with fieldwork just beginning in Cordoba.
• Brazil
  rainfall during the weekend was mostly confined to southern and eastern Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Espirito Santo and southeastern Bahia with a few showers in northern Goias
• Rainfall
  was mostly less than 0.50 inch with one location in east-central Minas Gerais reporting 0.79 inch
• Rain
  did develop overnight in Rio Grande do Sul, western Santa Catarina, southwestern Parana and southern Paraguay where moisture totals varied from 0.20 to 0.68 inch with a few amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches
  
• Dry
  and very warm to hot weather occurred in other areas with most temperatures of 95 to 104 degrees Fahrenheit occurring in Mato Grosso, northern Goias, northern Minas Gerais and western Bahia
• Brazil’s
  weather will include three waves of rain moving across center west and center south crop areas during the next ten days
• Sufficient
  rain will fall to bolster topsoil moisture for improved soybean planting, germination and emergence conditions
  
• Corn
  planting and establishment will also improve
• Wheat
  conditions may deteriorate in Parana and immediate neighboring areas because of too much moisture as the crop matures and is harvested
• Total
  rainfall by September 28 will vary from 0.75 to 2.5 inches with local totals of 2.50 to more than 3.50 inches from Mato Grosso through Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias to western and southern Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina and northern Rio Grande
  do Sul.
• Parana
  to Minas Gerais will be wettest
• Eastern
  and southern Paraguay will also receive some important rain
• Temperatures
  will trend cooler than those of late
• Additional
  rain is advertised for Sep. 29-Oct. 4
• Brazil’s
  coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas from Mato Grosso do Sul to northern Parana, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais should benefit from the coming two weeks of rain with flowering of coffee and citrus trees expected over time and new sugarcane development will evolve
  just as soon as significant rain has fallen.
• Brazil’s
  weather outlook is a boon to starting soybean planting and to supporting corn development and early rice and cotton planting. The moisture will be sufficient to support early planted corn, but it may raise some wheat quality concerns in areas where the crop
  is ready to be harvested.
• U.S.
  weekend precipitation was greatest in northern and eastern Nebraska, Iowa, northeastern Kansas, northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin
  
• Rainfall
  ranged from 1.00 to 3.01 inches in southeastern Iowa and reached over 1.00 inch in northeastern Missouri, far western Illinois, north-central Kansas and north-central South Dakota
  
• Florida
  was also wet with most of the central and southern Peninsula reporting 1.00 to 3.00 inches with local totals of 3.00 to nearly 5.00 inches
• Net
  drying occurred in the interior southeastern states of the nation, the Delta, the lower and eastern Midwest and the southern Plains
• Some
  light showers occurred from central Washington through central Oregon to northern California as well as from Montana into a few sugarbeet and dry bean production areas in Wyoming
• U.S.
  weekend temperatures were quite warm in the Midwest and especially the southern half of the Plains where 80s and 90s occurred respectively
• Extreme
  highs reached over 100 degrees Fahrenheit from Kansas to northern Texas
• Seasonably
  mild air was over the northern Plains where 50- and 60-degree highs occurred Friday and Saturday in parts of North Dakota, northern Minnesota and Montana
• No
  crop damaging cold occurred during the weekend
• U.S.
  Rainfall over the coming ten days will be restricted in many crop areas
• Totally
  dry weather is not expected, but areas of net drying will occur in the central and southern Plains, Delta, southeastern states and a part of the Midwest
• Other
  areas will receive 0.10 to 0.75 inch, but the coverage of the greatest rain will be less than 25% of the region
  
• The
  Great Lakes region, eastern North Dakota northern Minnesota and a few areas in Kansas, northeastern Colorado and from southeastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri to Ohio Wettest
• Northern
  California will receive some important rainfall early this week with 0.50 to 1.50 inches and local totals to 2.00 inches resulting
• Rainfall
  in northern and eastern Idaho, western Montana and western Wyoming will vary up to 0.80 inch
• Florida’s
  peninsula will receive up to 1.50 inches of rain this workweek and then trend drier
• Texas,
  Oklahoma, the Delta and southeastern states will be driest with little to no rain expected
• U.S.
  temperatures will be cooling this week with well above normal readings likely in the central and southern Plains and Midwest early this week followed by more seasonably warm readings during the weekend and early next week
  
• Temperatures
  will rise more significantly above normal once again later next week
• Extreme
  highs through Wednesday will continue to reach the 90s and over 100 degrees Fahrenheit from the central Plains and southwestern Corn Belt into the Delta and southern Plains
• Canada
  Prairies will experience seasonably cool weather for a little while this week with a boost in rainfall possible in the east early this week before dry weather resumes later this week into all of next week
• The
  moisture boost will delay harvest progress, but only shortly and the returning drier and warmer weather during the weekend and next week will be quick to get harvesting back on track without any serious crop quality concerns
• Other
  areas in the Prairies will continue dry biased, although a few brief showers will be possible
• No
  fix or significant relief is expected from drought conditions in the central through southwestern Prairies
• Ontario
  and Quebec weather will continue to alternate between mild and showery conditions with warm and dry conditions
  
• Europe
  weekend weather continued dry biased in the U.K., France and much of Spain and Portugal as well as in parts of the Baltic Sea region and Baltic Plain
  
• Rain
  fell across northeastern Italy, eastern France and Belgium through western and southern Germany to Ukraine and the Balkan Countries
• Moisture
  totals varied up to 0.45 inch most often, but greater amounts of 0.50 to 2.00 inches occurred in many localized areas
• One
  location in Slovenia reported 9.49 inches
• Temperatures
  were mild in the north and warm in the south with some highs in the 60s north while 80s and lower 90s occurred in the south
• Western
  Europe will continue dry into Friday while showers and thunderstorms occur in other parts of the continent
• Rainfall
  in the central and eastern parts of the continent varied from 0.30 to 1.00 inch with local totals of 1.00 to 1.50 inches
  
• Some
  increase in rainfall is expected in Spain, Portugal, southern and eastern France, Germany and parts of Italy during the weekend and early part of next week
  
• Northwestern
  France and parts of the U.K. may continue to experience below average precipitation next week
  
• Temperatures
  will be cooler than usual in the central and eastern parts of Europe this week with most of the continent seeing near normal temperatures next week
• Europe’s
  bottom line continues to be one of improvement for much of the continent with the exception of northern and western France which may continue too dry through much of the forecast period. Soil moisture is improving across most of the continent with rain noted
  in the past couple of weeks and it will continue this week. There will be an increasing level of concern over France soil moisture and water supply.
  
• Western
  CIS crop areas are still experiencing increasing soil moisture through periodic rainfall that will ultimately lead to better winter crop establishment.
  
• Weekend
  rainfall varied from 0.05 to 0.60 inch with local totals to 0.80 inch
• Rain
  in central Ukraine varied from 0.50 to 1.62 inches
• Temperatures
  were mild across Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
• Additional
  rainfall over the next ten days will vary from 0.25 to 1.00 inch in eastern Ukraine and 0.60 to 2.50 inches in most other areas west of the Ural Mountains; including Russia’s Southern Region.
  
• Drying
  is expected east of the Ural Mountains
• The
  bottom line for CIS crop areas is still good for improved wheat and rye planting, emergence and establishment conditions. Weather farther to the east will be equally good for sunseed and late spring wheat harvest progress.
  
• Gujarat,
  Rajasthan and Punjab, India northwest into Pakistan will be seasonably dry over the next ten days favoring good summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• India
  rainfall will be greatest over the next ten days from Maharashtra to Uttaranchal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Bangladesh and the far Eastern States as well as areas southward into West Bengal and Odisha
• Rain
  totals will vary from 2.00 to more than 4.00 inches over the next ten days with a few amounts getting up over 8.00 inches, but mostly in northeastern India
• Far
  southern India will experience net drying conditions
• China
  will continue to experience poor rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin for the next ten days, despite a few showers
• Not
  much precipitation fell during the weekend except in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Muifa which produced 1.50 to nearly 3.00 inches of rain from southeastern Heilongjiang to Liaoning and eastern Shandong with local totals to nearly 6.00 inches
  
• The
  greatest rain fell in southeastern Liaoning and eastern Shandong
• Yunnan
  also received heavy rainfall with some totals reaching over 10.00 inches
• Dry
  weather occurred elsewhere; including the Yangtze River Basin
• Northeastern
  China will receive 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain during the Wednesday through Friday period this week with a few amounts of 1.50 to 3.00 inches in northeastern Inner Mongolia
• Drier
  weather is expected thereafter into next week
• Temperatures
  will be warmer than usual over the next two weeks in southern China’s crop areas and more seasonable in the north
• Xinjiang,
  China weather is expected to be mild to warm with rain mostly impacting the far northeast periodically
• This
  pattern will be very good for cotton and corn maturation as well as early harvesting in most areas, but there will be some disruption due to the showers in the far northeast
  
• Typhoon
  Nanmodal came to the south coast of Kyushu with 110 mph sustained wind speed around 0600 GMT today (Sunday)
  
• At
  2100 GMT Sunday the center of the storm was located 40 miles east of Sasebo, Japan moving northerly at 14 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 80mph
• Most
  of Kyushu, Japan experienced sustained wind speeds of 80-110 mph today which may have induced some significant property and agriculture damage
• Flooding
  rain has also occurred with rain amounts earlier today already over 7.00 inches
  
• Those
  amounts have likely doubled and flooding should be serious
• Damage
  to rice is probably greatest along with some sugarcane in the northern Ryukyu Islands as well
• Typhoon
  Nanmodal will turn to the east tonight and Monday and move along the north coast of Honshu while steadily weakening
  
• Most
  of the worst damage may be over, but some minor problems with crops and property are possible in western and northern Honshu into Tuesday
  
• Most
  of the problems will be associated with heavy rainfall
• Hurricane
  Fiona was located 10 miles west of Mayaguez, Puerto Rico at 1700 EDT near 18.2 north latitude and 67.3 west longitude moving northwesterly at 9 mph at 85 mph
  
• Tropical
  storm force wind was occurring out 140 miles while hurricane force wind was occurring out 30 miles
• Hurricane
  Fiona will move along the north coast of Dominican Republic late Monday while intensifying additionally
  
• The
  storm may become a Category three hurricane after passing the Turks and Caicos Islands Tuesday
• The
  storm is expected to turn more to the north Tuesday and Wednesday before turning to the northeast late Wednesday and Thursday and beginning to weaken into Friday
• Fiona
  will likely weaken as it turns to the northeast and it will pass very near to Bermuda late Thursday or early Friday
• Damage
  to crops and property may occur over Puerto Rico and eastern parts of Dominican Republic, but the impact may be low
  
• Rice,
  coffee and sugarcane may be most at risk, although the damage will be low because of the limited radius of hurricane force wind
• Australia
  is still expected to see periodic bouts of rain over the next two weeks
• Rainfall
  may be a little too great in portions of Victoria and New South Wales, but no imminent problems are expected
• Rain
  will be greatest into Wednesday of this week and again early next week
• Moisture
  totals may vary from 1.00 to 3.00 inches
• Showers
  in Western and south-central parts of the nation will be more reasonable with amounts to 0.20 to 0.75 inch over the same period of time
• Australia’s
  bottom line still looks very good for winter wheat, barley and canola development. As long as the crop region warms up a little more in coming weeks and rain frequency does not get excessive, this year’s production will be huge. There is some concern about
  a wet bias in October and November that could harm the quality of some crops.
  
• South
  Africa precipitation is expected to be beneficial for winter wheat, barley and canola
  
• Most
  of the precipitation will be confined to the southern and eastern parts of the nation
  
• Some
  early corn and other crop areas may receive some needed rain, but more will be necessary to support planting in October and November.
  
• Winter
  crops are still poised to perform well this spring as long as continues late this month and into October.
  
• Central
  America, Colombia and parts of Venezuela are expected to trend wetter than usual in the next few weeks due to the persistent La Nina influence on the region
• North
  Africa showers at this time of year are always welcome, but have a minimal impact and that will be the case over the next ten days
• Mexico’s
  drought in the northeast continues and will not likely end without the help from a tropical cyclone
• With
  that said some significant rain has fallen over the past few weeks in portions of the dry region
• This
  coming week’s rainfall will be trending lighter than usual once again
• Southern
  and western Mexico will get some rain periodically through the next couple of weeks with sufficient amounts to maintain moisture abundance
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall is expected to be frequent and significant during the next ten days to two weeks
  
• All
  areas are expected to be impacted and sufficient rain is expected to bolster soil moisture for long term crop development need
  
• Local
  flooding is expected
• West-Central
  Africa showers and thunderstorms will continue frequently benefiting coffee and cocoa production areas during the next two weeks.
  
• Some
  rice, cotton and sugarcane will also benefit from this pattern
• Weekend
  precipitation was minimal, but it will be increasing later this week and next week
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will continue to occur most frequent and significantly in Ethiopia, Uganda and southwestern Kenya over the next two weeks
• Good
  coffee, cocoa and other crop development conditions will prevail
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +14.65 and it will move higher over the next few days.
  

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Sept. 20:

• China’s
  third batch of August trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Malaysia’s
  Sept. 1-20 palm oil export data
• World
  Agri-Tech Innovation Summit, London, Sept. 20-21

Wednesday,
Sept. 21:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 1
• Sugar
  and ethanol conference by Indian Sugar Mills Association and Datagro

Thursday,
Sept. 22:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• US
  cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 2
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• Future
  Food Tech Conference, London, Sept. 22-23

Friday,
Sept. 23:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 3
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar production data (tentative)
• US
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
790,145                 versus   400000-950000  range

Corn                     
549,354                 versus   375000-800000  range

Soybeans           
518,743                 versus   350000-650000  range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 15, 2022

          
                 — METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      09/15/2022  09/08/2022  09/16/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0        1,414        6,550 

CORN         
549,354     474,388     403,422    1,147,097      622,041 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0            0           24 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0         100           0        6,486          200 

RYE  
              0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM        
8,565      46,513       9,207       56,372       15,050 

SOYBEANS     
518,743     341,713     279,572      912,755      503,820 

SUNFLOWER          
0         384           0          384            0 

WHEAT        
790,145     757,804     567,522    7,211,633    7,751,236 

Total      
1,866,807   1,620,902   1,259,723    9,336,141    8,898,921 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn started lower from weakness in CBOT wheat and US harvesting pressure but turned higher after WTI crude oil rebounded. US cash grain basis eased across the Midwest as US harvest progress expanded over the weekend into
this week. Look for producer selling from any rallies in corn futures.

·        
Attached is our US corn S&D. We trimmed corn exports and ethanol use by 75 and 50 million bushels, respectively.

·        
The Delta and lower Midwest will see mostly dry conditions this week, allowing producers to collect corn. The US harvest could jump about 15 points this week.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of September 15, 2022 were 549,354 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 474,388 tons previous week and compares to 403,422 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 217,839
tons, Japan for 161,834 tons, and China for 142,833 tons.

·        
FOMC US rate decision is Wednesday, and many are looking for a 75 to 100 point basis increase. Several other countries will revise interest rates this week.

·        
Ukraine left their 2022 grain crop estimate unchanged at 50-52 million tons from 86 million last year. 19 million tons of wheat and 5.5 million barley was projected. 45 million tons could be potentially exported during 2022-23,
but the Black Sea shipment pace may need to increase to realize this.

·        
EU’s MARS lowered its yield estimate for the 2022 corn crop to 6.39 tons per hectare versus 6.39 tons previous month. USDA has a EU production of 58.8 million tons, down from 70.98 million tons previous season. Some think USDA’s
estimate is overstated, and we are gravitating towards a 56 million ton estimate.  Harvesting is well underway in western Europe.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Updated
9/7/22

December
corn is seen in a $6.00-$7.25 range.

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans ended higher after crude oil rebounded and fund selling dried by mid-morning session. Prices were lower at the start. Last month’s US crush was lower than expected and crush rates are expected to be low during first half
September. CBOT crush basis the March is off 5 cents this morning at $1.40. Soybean meal gained throughout the session, in part to spreading against soybean oil, which was lower from easing US basis and slowing export demand. The discount for soybean oil to
palm oil reached more than $700 per ton over the weekend.

·        
US crop conditions for soybeans and corn were down 1 point each, shaving off a small amount of soybean production but took off nearly 100 million bushels. We updated our balance sheets (attached) prior to the crop progress report.
NASS September grain stocks are due out a week from Friday. Our carryout for soybeans and corn will tighten by the end of the month.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of September 15, 2022 were 518,743 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 341,713 tons previous week and compares to 279,572 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 149,393
tons, Mexico for 140,694 tons, and Japan for 97,435 tons.

·        
Brazil soybean plantings began in Mato Grosso on irrigated areas, AgRural reported. Most producers are waiting for good rains to fall before sowing. The official start of the season for Mato Grosso is Thursday. Parana officially
started September 10 and planting progress is advancing nicely for that state. Overall less than 1 percent of Brazil’s soybeans have been planted.

·        
EU’s MARS lowered its yield estimate for the sunflower crop to 2.05 tons per hectare versus 2.06 tons previous month.

·        
(Bloomberg) — Bunge to Sell Oilseed Processing Business in Russia, according to a press release. Bunge today announced that it has agreed to sell its oilseed processing business in Russia to Karen Vanetsyan, the controlling shareholder
of Exoil Group.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

 

 

Updated
9/13/22

Soybeans
– November is seen in a $13.25-$15.50 range

Soybean
meal – December $390-$480

Soybean
oil – December 63.00-72.00

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat was sharply lower from favorable US weather, lower USD, and a pickup in Black Sea shipments, notably Ukraine boats to “poorer” countries, a topic Russia has been criticizing. Russia shipments have increased. US spring wheat
harvesting pressure was also weighing on wheat. Other traders noted global economic concerns hurting demand. US wheat prices are unattractive for fresh commitments and French shipment pace had slowed, but USDA all-wheat export inspections were excellent, and
last week were the highest weekly reported since May 16, 2019 (unadjusted for revisions).

·        
IKAR raised their estimate for 2022 Russia wheat production to 99 million tons, a 2 million ton increase from their previous forecast. Russian exports were seen at 47.5 million tons, a record if realized. USDA is at 91 million
tons and we think they will raise that figure by 2-3 million tons in its October update.

·        
Russian wheat prices appreciated las week from a rising currency and improving demand. 12.5% protein was $317 per ton, up $5.00 from the previous week (fob). Russia exported 1 million tons of wheat last week, up from 640,000 tons
previous week.

·        
Ukraine shipments are increasing but well off average. Grain shipments so far this season are down 46 percent from year ago at 6.364 million tons. Ukraine shipments by sea was estimated at 3.5 million tons, according to the UN.
Of that total nearly a half million tons was inspected at Istanbul.

·        
Reuters noted “some 165 ships with 3.7 million tons of agricultural products have left Ukraine.”

·        
Bloomberg noted Russia’s currency strengthened early Monday against the USD as exporters started selling the currency for upcoming tax payments.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of September 15, 2022 were 790,145 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 757,804 tons previous week and compares to 567,522 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
136,464 tons, Japan for 90,926 tons, and Mexico for 80,853 tons.

·        
Pakistan is in for wheat. Wheat stocks within that country are enough for 153 days. Domestic consumption runs at about 30.5 million tons. Recent flooding continues to threaten food security.

·        
India’s monsoon season will ease early this week and conditions are seen favorable for the northwest, according to the state-run India Meteorological Department.

·        
Hot and dry conditions are seen for the US southwestern hard red winter wheat growing areas over the next two weeks.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 8.50 euros at 325.75 per ton. The increase in Ukraine shipments was noted.

 

 

FI
US 2022 wheat production estimates for USDA’s September 30 small grains summary

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Saudi Arabia bought 556,000 tons of wheat at an average price of $371.61/ton c&f for November-February shipment. Offered origins were EU, Black Sea, North & South America and Australia, at seller’s option (Bloomberg).

·        
Iraq may soon float an import tender for 300,000 tons of wheat from various origins.

·        
Bangladesh cancelled their import tender for 50,000 tons of wheat. They recently bought wheat from Ukraine and Bulgaria.

·        
Pakistan seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on September 26 for October shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in September 20 for 120,000 tons of wheat.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on September 21.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

Updated
9/6/22

Chicago
– December $7.25-$10.00

KC
– December $7.50-$10.75

MN
– December $8.00-$11.00