PDF Attached

 

Is
weather a mess?  We think it’s starting to sink in for Northern Hemisphere winter grain producers (Black Sea and US) and late developing summer grains (China storms).  Supply is an issue for oilseeds after Brazil oversold their soybean crop.  Two-sided trade
today, with soybean meal leading the charge higher for soybeans, corn and wheat.  News was light.  The trade remains focused on Chinese corn and soybean buying of US and new crop Brazil.  US equities were lower while the USD also traded lower by US afternoon
and crude WTI was higher.  US is starting to cool only to warm up after the weekend. Freeze ending US growing season will be a reality by the end of the month.  

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map

 

 

TROPICAL
COMMENTS

  • Tropical
    Disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico will likely become the next tropical depression and it may threaten Mexico and/or the United States during the weekend or next week
    • Most
      forecast models have the storm meandering around in the western Gulf of Mexico For days before threatening land
  • Tropical
    Storm Sally diminished to depression status overnight and was nearing the Alabama/central west Georgia border this morning
    • The
      storm center was 50 miles southeast of Montgomery, Alabama
    • Sally
      will move across central Georgia and into the Carolinas today and Friday while slowly diminishing further
    • Additional
      rainfall of 1.00 to 4.00 inches and locally more (to 6.00 inches) is expected which may cause localized flooding, but the storm’s greatest wind and rain have diminished enough to minimize the risk of damage
  • Sally
    has damaged crops and property across the western Florida Panhandle and in southern Alabama, but the assessments are incomplete and it will be a few days before the extent of the damage is known
    • Rain
      totals of 10 to more than 20 inches occurred in in the Florida Panhandle while amounts of 4.00 to 10.00 inches occurred northward into southern Alabama mostly along the Interstate 65 corridor and east to the Georgia border
      • These
        areas also experienced the strongest wind speed of 40-60 mph
      • Some
        higher wind speeds occurred near the Mobile Bay area of Alabama where speeds of 60 to 100 mph occurred as the storm came inland
  • Hurricane
    Paulette lost its topical characteristics over open water in the northern Atlantic Ocean Wednesday
  • Tropical
    Storm Vicky was expected to dissipate by Saturday over open water in the central Atlantic Ocean
  • Hurricane
    Teddy, however, was expected to become a Category 3 hurricane equivalent storm over open water in the central Atlantic Ocean later today and Friday before moving toward Bermuda during the weekend
    • Teddy
      may pass very near or slightly to the east of Bermuda early next week as a Category 2 storm after that the storm may threaten Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada with heavy rain and high wind speeds
  • A
    tropical wave south southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will move toward the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean over the next several days
    • This
      system may become a tropical depression, but there is not much support for a stronger storm as the environment it moves into this weekend becomes a little hostile for further development
  • Tropical
    Storm Noul is still moving toward central Vietnam, but the system is no longer advertised to reach typhoon status and that may help the system have a lower impact from central Vietnam to northeastern Thailand
    • The
      system will stay north of the key Central Highlands production region, although some rain from the storm will impact a part of coffee country without damage
    • Landfall
      is expected around 0600 GMT Friday to the north of Hue, Vietnam
      • Torrentially
        rain and flooding will accompany the storm inland
        • Crop
          damage will be low because the area impacted is not a very important rice production area
  • Tropical
    Disturbance well south of Hawaii has some potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days, but it will move west northwesterly and stay far to the south of the Hawaiian Islands
  • Tropical
    Depression Karina was dissipating over open water well to the west of Mexico today

 

OTHER
WORLD WEATHER ISSUES

  • Dryness
    continues to threaten winter crop planting and establishment in the drier areas of southeastern Europe, central and eastern Ukraine, western Kazakhstan and parts of Russia’s Southern Region
    • No
      relief from drought will occur in these areas for another ten days, but conditions may begin to improve in early October
  • France,
    the United Kingdom, Spain and Portugal will receive rain this weekend and during much of next week resulting in some improved topsoil moisture
    • More
      rain will be needed, but the precipitation will help to improve pre-planting and early planting moisture for autumn crops
  • Germany
    will receive some rain in the second half of next week and that will help ease recent drying
    • Parts
      of Italy will also receive rain during mid- to late-week next week and some of this moisture may begin to push into southeastern Europe during the second weekend of the two week outlook
  • Western
    portions of Western Australia will receive some rain during mid- to late-week next week, but interior crop areas may not get much moisture for a while
    • Net
      drying in northern parts of Western Australia’s wheat and barley production region may be cutting into yields as reproduction is under way
    • Southern
      and western crop areas will get just enough moisture to maintain a good production outlook
  • Australia’s
    crop areas from South Australia to Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria will get needed rain by Sunday and sufficient amounts will occur to support better winter crop conditions
    • Additional
      rain will still be needed to restore soil moisture after prolonged drought in South Australia, Queensland and some western and northern New South Wales crop areas, but crops will certainly benefit from the moisture
  • South
    Africa still needs significant rain for its winter wheat, barley and canola crops, especially those in eastern production areas
    • Not
      much rain is expected over the coming week, although a few sporadic showers are anticipated
  • Argentina’s
    drought in the west will not be altered over the next week to ten days
    • Rain
      is expected in northeastern parts of the nation benefiting future cotton, corn and sunseed planting and supporting a little citrus flowering
    • Temperatures
      will be near average over the coming week and a little colder than usual in the last days of September
  • Center
    West and southern parts of center south Brazil are advertised to receive scattered showers and thunderstorms Sep. 20-23 with some follow up rain periodically into the end of this month
    • The
      precipitation might eventually help lift topsoil moisture for “some” early season soybean planting, but much more rain will be needed
    • Coffee
      and citrus flowering “may” occur in a few areas from northeastern Sao Paulo into southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro while sugarcane and early corn experience a moisture boost to improve crop development; however, most of the region will fail to get quite
      enough moisture to make big changes in crop or soil conditions without follow up moisture
  • Southern
    Brazil rice, corn and wheat areas will get periodic rainfall through the next two weeks
    • Crop
      and field conditions will either improve or continue good through the end of this month
  • China
    rain Wednesday became widespread again in the Northeast Provinces reversing the drying trend of the past few days
    • Rain
      totals varied from 0.20 to 1.00 inch with one amount of 1.69 inches
    • Most
      of the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain was left dry
    • Rain
      fell significantly again in the Yangtze River Basin where amounts ranged from 1.00 to 4.00 inches and local totals to 6.00 inches
    • Net
      drying occurred in the southern coastal provinces
  • China
    rainfall the past three days from extreme southeastern Sichuan and Guizhou through southeastern Hebei to parts of southern Anhui has ranged from 4.00 to 13.31 inches resulting in some flooding once again
  • China
    weather over the next two weeks
    • Rain
      will continue to impact portions of Heilongjiang and Jilin frequently over the next week to ten days resulting in further delays to crop maturation and harvesting through the balance of this month; some crop quality declines are expected to continue especially
      for soybean, rice and some groundnuts
    • A
      good mix of rain and sunshine will impact the middle and lower Yellow River Basin and portions of the North China Plain over the next ten days resulting in relatively good summer crop maturation and harvest conditions while improving future wheat planting
      potentials
    • Rain
      will fall frequently in the Yangtze River Basin and southern coastal provinces as well as Yunnan and Guangxi during the next two weeks to maintain soggy field conditions
      • The
        wettest conditions will shift south of the Yangtze River reducing the risk of more serious flooding in the Yangtze River Basin once again
    • Much
      of eastern China needs to dry down in support of summer crop maturation and harvesting as well as support for winter crop planting that occurs from late this month through October and into November
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather will continue favorable for cotton and other crop maturation and early harvest progress
    • Alternating
      periods of warm and cool weather will occur through the next ten days with restricted rainfall expected
    • The
      environment will support crop maturation, leaf defoliation and early harvesting
    • High
      temperatures Wednesday were in the 70s Fahrenheit northeast and 80s southwest followed by lows today in the upper 40s and 50s
  • India
    weather over the next two weeks will continue wettest in central, southern and far eastern parts of the nation while net drying occurs in the north
    • Monsoonal
      precipitation will continue without much withdrawal through early next week, but a more significant withdrawing trend is expected in the last week of September and early October improving crop maturation conditions in central parts of the nation
    • Weather
      conditions in most of India are still favorable, but drying is needed in Gujarat and that may not come for another week
  • U.S.
    weather over the next ten days
    • Favorable
      summer crop maturation and harvest weather is expected due to restricted rainfall and mild to warm temperatures for the next ten days including the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt
    • Southeastern
      U.S. rainfall will be winding down after today and Friday with a developing drier bias expected during the weekend and during much of next week
      • The
        change will result in better conditions for summer crops not seriously impacted by Tropical Cyclone Sally
    • U.S.
      hard red winter wheat areas will receive limited rainfall which may be good for summer crop maturation and harvest progress
      • Wheat
        planting and emergence will continue, although there is need for greater rain to induce better emergence and establishment in the driest areas
        • The
          bulk of additional planting will occur in October
    • West
      Texas rainfall will be limited enough to support favorable crop maturation
    • Northern
      Plains will receive restricted rainfall and experience warm temperatures favoring a good crop maturation and harvest environment
  • U.S.
    temperatures will slip to the frost and freeze threshold in the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region late this week again tonight with lows in the 30s Fahrenheit and with a few colder readings near the Canada border
    • Some
      extreme lows in the upper 20s occurred this morning in northern Minnesota, but key crop areas in the Midwest were not experiencing temperatures nearly as cold
    • Some
      frost and a few more light freezes will occur in northern Minnesota and the western Great Lakes region Friday morning
    • Overall
      temperatures in the coming week will be warmer than usual from the central and northwestern Great Plains through most of the western states while near to below average farther to the east
      • The
        coolest conditions relative to normal through the weekend will be in the eastern Midwest through the Atlantic Coast states
    • Temperatures
      next week will be similar to those of this week, although a little warmer in the eastern Midwest and a little milder in the central Plains
      • Some
        minor cooling is also expected in the Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountain region
  • U.S.
    NWS forecast for October suggests above average rainfall for most of the contiguous United States excepting the Pacific Northwest where there was an equal chance for above, below and near normal temperatures
    • Rainfall
      for October was advertised to be lighter than usual in the central and southern Plains, southern Rocky Mountain region and from the lower Midwest into the Delta
    • Wetter
      than usual conditions were advertised for Florida and in the Pacific Northwest
  • US
    NWS Forecast for October through December was warmer than usual for the entire contiguous United States
    • Precipitation
      was advertised to be below average from the southwestern desert region through the southern Rocky Mountain region and southern half of the Great Plains to the Delta and Alabama