PDF Attached

 

Calls: 
Soybeans up 1-3, corn up 1-2 and wheat steady. 

 

US
crop conditions fell 2 points for soybeans and one point for corn.  Trade was looking for unchanged for both.  USDA reported additional corn and soybean sales this morning. Fundamental news was light. 
Palm
oil was very strong on Monday, up 3 percent, on renewed fund buying.  Saudi Arabia bought wheat, Jordan seeks wheat and Taiwan is in for corn.  US temperatures will be drier and warmer this week, facilitating harvesting progress. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

US
CORN – 60 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 61 PCT WK AGO (55 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
CORN – 5 PCT HARVESTED (3 PCT YR) (5 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
CORN – 89 PCT DENTED VS 79 PCT WK AGO (82 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
CORN – 41 PCT MATURE VS 25 PCT WK AGO (32 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SOYBEAN – 63 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 65 PCT WK AGO (54 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
SOYBEANS – 37 PCT DROPPING LEAVES VS 20 PCT WK AGO (31 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
RICE – 72 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 78 PCT WK AGO (69 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
RICE – 34 PCT HARVESTED VS 26 PCT WK AGO (47 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SPRING WHEAT – 92 PCT HARVESTED VS 82 PCT WK AGO (92 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
WINTER WHEAT – 10 PCT PLANTED VS 5 PCT WK AGO (8 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 45 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 45 PCT WK AGO (41 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
COTTON – 6 PCT HARVESTED (8 PCT YR) (8 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 47 PCT BOLLS OPENING VS 37 PCT WK AGO (45 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

  • GFS
    is advertising greater rain in Argentina during the September 22-25 period and that is not likely to verify
  • Rio
    Grande do Sul, Brazil has a frost threat for late in the weekend and early next week, but this is not expected to verify
  • 00z
    GFS model run was too wet in southern Alberta and the 06z model run has corrected that error to some degree
  • 06z
    GFS model run is too wet for the U.S. Midwest Sep. 25-28
  • All
    models are colder in western CIS for Sep. 21-25, but some of the cold was overdone especially in the GFS model runs
  • GFS
    model run is too wet in Russia’s eastern New Lands over the coming ten days
  • West-central
    Africa received scattered showers and thunderstorms during the weekend and some of the rain reached coffee and cocoa production areas in Ivory Coast, portions of Ghana and in Benin as well as scattered locations farther to the east
    • Rainfall
      of 0.35 to 3.00 inches occurred in Ivory Coast and 0.75 to 2.00 inches in Ghana while up to 1.00 inch occurred in Benin
      • The
        moisture was good for coffee and cocoa development as well as rice, sugarcane and other crops

 

MARKET
MOVING WEATHER ISSUES

  • Eastern
    Australia winter and spring crop areas will get rain this week
  • Western
    Australia will continue to dry out
  • Western
    Argentina dryness will prevail
  • U.S.
    southeastern crops will be vulnerable to Tropical Storm Sally Tuesday into Friday with heavy rain and flooding mostly a threat to open boll cotton
  • Drought
    will prevail from Ukraine to Kazakhstan and Russia’s Southern Region
  • Drought
    will continue in southeastern Europe
  • Brazil
    may experience a boost in pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms in center west and center south crop areas Sep. 20-23, but it looks like drier weather will return later next week
  • Western
    Europe will get some needed rain this weekend into next week
  • China’s
    greatest rains will diminish, but alternating periods of rain and sun will continue

 

TROPICAL
WEATHER

  • Tropical
    Storm Sally in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will become a hurricane Monday while approaching the southeast Louisiana coast
    • At
      0700 CDT today, the center of the storm was 115 miles east southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River at 28.4 north, 87.4 west moving west northwesterly at 8 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 65 mph.
    • Landfall
      is expected Tuesday between Morgan City, Louisiana and New Orleans as a weak Category 1 hurricane
      • Rainfall
        of 5.00 to 15.00 inches and local totals to 20.00 inches will be possible in southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama as well as in extreme southeastern Louisiana
      • Storm
        surge of more than 10 feet above normal tides will be possible a part of the region between Morgan City, Louisiana and the western most tip of the Florida Panhandle
      • Remnants
        of the storm will move through southern Mississippi, central Alabama (from southwest to northeast), northern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas where 3.00 to 9.00 inches will result in some flooding
    • Damage
      to crops should be low with personal property damage expected from southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi and possibly coastal areas of southwestern Alabama
      • Cotton
        bolls that are open will be vulnerable to the most significant damage
  • Hurricane
    Paulette moved over Bermuda overnight and will move away from the island today
    • At
      0800 EDT today, the center of the storm was 40 miles north of Bermuda at 32.9 north, 64.7 west moving north northwesterly at 12 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 95 mph.
    • Damage
      over Bermuda has been extensive and more will occur for the next few hours and then improving conditions are expected
    • Paulette
      will turn to the northeast Tuesday and race away from North America posing only a threat to shipping
  • Tropical
    Depression Rene was expected to dissipate Tuesday over open water in the central Atlantic Ocean
    • At
      0800 EDT today, the center of the storm was 1115 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands at 27.4 north, 48.3 west moving westerly at 3 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 30 mph.
    • Rene
      will move southwesterly over the next couple of days resulting in gradual weakening with the storm dissipating by Wednesday morning
  • Tropical
    Storm Teddy will intensify to hurricane status Tuesday and to a major hurricane Thursday and Friday
    • At
      0500 EDT today, the center of the storm was 1405 miles east of the Lesser Antilles at 13.4 north, 40.4 west moving west northwesterly at 14 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 mph.
    • Teddy
      is expected to remain over open water most of this week and during the weekend – it poses little threat to North America through the weekend; however, it will become a major hurricane
  • Tropical
    disturbance in west-central Gulf of Mexico will bring rain and thunderstorms to southern Texas and northeastern Mexico this week, but it is not likely to organize into a more significant tropical weather system.
  • Tropical
    Depression Twenty-one formed west northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands overnight
    • The
      storm was 330 miles west northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands moving northerly at 6 mph and producing wind speeds to 35 mph
    • The
      system will become a tropical storm briefly today and then begin weakening Tuesday with dissipation possible later this week
    • The
      storm poses no threat to land
  • Tropical
    wave coming off the Africa coast later this week will be closely monitored for development, but today’s computer forecast models do not organize the system as it moves over the tropical eastern Atlantic Ocean later this week
  • Tropical
    Storm Karina was located in the eastern Pacific Ocean well west of Mexico and was expected to continue moving away from land through the workweek with some weakening expected at the end of the week
  • No
    tropical cyclones were noted in the Indian Ocean, western Pacific Ocean or central Pacific Ocean today
    • However,
      a tropical disturbance is expected to evolve early this week near the Philippines and it may intensify after moving across the nation
    • The
      system will move toward northern Vietnam late this week with landfall possible late Friday or Saturday as a tropical depression or tropical storm

 

MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF THE COMING WEEK

  • Eastern
    Australia will receive significant rain later this week
    • South
      Australia will get rain Wednesday with 0.60 to 2.00 inches possible in some winter crop areas
    • New
      South Wales, Queensland and Victoria will receive rain Thursday into Saturday with 0.50 to 2.00 inches from northern New South Wales into Queensland with a few totals over4.00 inches in central and southwestern crop areas of Queensland and a few northern New
      South Wales locations
      • Rainfall
        of 0.20 to 0.60 inch will occur in Victoria and southern New south Wales
    • The
      precipitation will be extremely helpful in raising soil moisture for winter and spring crops, although wheat and barley in Queensland may be a little too far advanced to full benefit
  • Western
    Australia gets very little rain outside of coastal areas for the next ten days
    • Some
      rain is advertised for Sep. 24-25, although confidence in its significance is low
  • Argentina
    rainfall will continue minimal outside of the far northeast fort the next eight days
    • Crop
      moisture stress will continue in western parts of the nation while soil moisture in the east will be favorable
    • “some”
      showers occur in the drier areas of the nation during mid-week next week, but confidence is low on the significance of that precipitation
      • Dry
        weather will resume thereafter leaving a strong need for more rain
  • Center
    West and southern parts of center south Brazil are advertised to receive scattered showers and thunderstorms Sep. 20-23 with drier weather resuming after that period
    • The
      precipitation might eventually help lift topsoil moisture for some early season soybean planting, but much more rain will be needed
    • Coffee
      and citrus flowering “may” occur in a few areas from Sao Paulo into southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro while sugarcane and early corn experience a moisture boost to improve crop development; however, most of the region will fail to get quite enough moisture
      to make big changes in crop or soil conditions without follow up moisture
  • Southern
    Brazil rice, corn and wheat areas will get periodic rainfall through the next two weeks
    • Crop
      and field conditions will either improve or continue good through the end of this month
  • China
    weather during the weekend included welcome drying in Heilongjiang, Jilin and in the heart of east-central China
    • The
      drier bias was needed in many areas
    • Rain
      fell abundantly from southern Sichuan through Guizhou, eastern Yunnan through Guangxi to Guangdong to Fujian where local flooding resulted
      • More
        than 8.00 inches of rain fell in northeastern Guangxi while more than 6.00 inches occurred in western Guangdong and more than 5.00 inches in southeastern Guizhou
  • China
    will experience a favorable mix of rain and sunshine in most grain, oilseed, cotton, rice and sugarcane areas during the next two weeks
    • Too
      much rain may fall in some of southern China over the next two weeks
      • Local
        flooding is possible
    • Heilongjiang,
      Jilin and Liaoning will need drier biased weather soon to support summer crop maturation and harvest progress
    • The
      mix of weather elsewhere will be good for ongoing summer crop development and helpful in ensuring good soil moisture for rapeseed and wheat planting later this autumn
  • India
    rain during the weekend was concentrated on western, interior southern and far eastern parts of the nation
    • Net
      drying occurred from the central through northern production areas
  • India
    weather over the next two weeks will continue wettest in central, southern and far eastern parts of the nation while net drying occurs in the north
    • The
      environment will good for most crops and fieldwork
  • Europe
    was unusually dry again during the weekend with temperatures above average in the central and south
    • Highest
      afternoon temperatures were in the 60s and 70s Fahrenheit north and in the 80s and lower to a few middle 90s south
  • Europe
    rainfall will continue restricted through much of the coming week
    • Rain
      is most likely in Spain and Portugal after Wednesday of this week with 0.50 to more than 2.25 inches resulting
    • No
      more than sporadic showers will occur elsewhere
  • Europe
    rainfall will increase next week in France, the U.K., Italy, and a few immediate neighboring areas
    • The
      moisture will be welcome to future winter crop planting, but will slow summer crop maturation and early season harvest progress

 

  • Eastern
    Europe and the western CIS precipitation is expected to be minimal for at least the next ten days
    • This
      will lead to good summer crop harvest progress and some autumn planting of winter grains from Ukraine and the Balkan Countries to Poland and the Baltic States
      • Totally
        dry weather is not expected, but very little disruption to fieldwork will occur
  • Winter
    crop areas in central and eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region, western Kazakhstan and portions of the Balkan Countries will continue too dry delaying planting, emergence and establishment in many of the driest areas
  • Western
    Commonwealth of Independent States will experience periodic rain over the next two weeks with a few breaks in the precipitation
    • Most
      of this will occur north of a line from Belarus through southwestern Russia to northern Kazakhstan
    • Net
      drying will occur farther to the south
    • Temperatures
      will trend colder next week with frost and freezes possible in a part of the region west of the Ural Mountains
  • U.S.
    Weather over the next ten days will include net drying conditions in much of the western United States and in the high Plains region from Canada’s south-central Prairies to western Texas
    • Rain
      will fall from the central Plains through most of the Midwest Sep. 20-24
      • Amounts
        of 0.20 to 0.80 inch with a few amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches
    • Rain
      also occur from southern and eastern Texas through the Delta to Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida
      • Excessive
        rainfall will occur from extreme southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama to eastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas Tuesday night through Thursday due to Tropical Storm Sally
        • Rain
          totals of 3.00 to 8.00 inches will result during the middle part of this week with local totals near the coast varying from 5.00 to 15.00 inches and locally more
  • U.S.
    temperatures will slip to the frost and freeze threshold in the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region late this week with lows in the 30s Fahrenheit and with a few colder readings near the Canada border
    • Overall
      temperatures in the coming week will be warmer than usual from the central and northwestern Great Plains through most of the western states while near average farther to the east
      • Temperatures
        next week will be similar to those of this week, although a little less warm in the Great Plains than this week
  • U.S.
    weekend rain was greatest from central Missouri to Minnesota and Wisconsin
    • Amounts
      through Sunday morning were greatest from Missouri to eastern Iowa and Wisconsin and central and western Illinois where 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain resulted with local totals of 2.00 to 3.00 inches
    • Lighter
      rain fell in other areas of Midwest ranged from 0.05 to 0.75 inch
    • Net
      drying occurred from interior southern Illinois to central and southern Indiana
    • Scattered
      showers occurred in the Delta and southeastern states where rainfall varied from trace amounts to 0.45 inch with a few totals over 1.00 inch
      • Rainfall
        ranged from 0.50 to 1.63 inches except in southern Florida where totals ranged from 2.00 to more than 4.00 inches with local totals over 9.00 inches in the Florida Keys
    • Very
      little rain fell in the central and western United States
      • Temperatures
        were very warm in the west and in the southeastern states and near to below average in the Midwest
    • A
      few freezes occurred this morning near the Canada border in Minnesota

 

  • South
    America rainfall during the weekend was most limited to the region from northeastern Argentina into Rio Grande do Sul and northeastern Uruguay with rainfall of 0.30 to 1.30 inches and local totals to 1.50 inches
    • Temperatures
      continued hot from Center West Brazil to far northeastern Argentina and Paraguay where highest temperatures were in the middle 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit
    • Temperatures
      continued warm in the remainder of eastern Brazil while readings were more seasonable in Argentina
      • Frost
        and freezes occurred in central and southern Argentina resulting in no crop damage
  • North
    Africa was dry except in northeastern Algeria and northern and eastern Tunisia where scattered showers were noted
    • Most
      of the rain was not great enough to seriously change soil moisture
  • West-central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Additional
      improvement is expected to coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane production areas
    • Cotton
      areas will also continue to receive some rain for a while longer
    • All
      crops receiving rain will likely benefit from the moisture
  • South
    Africa weather during the weekend was minimal and temperatures were near to above average
    • Rain
      that was advertised for this week in South Africa has been removed from the forecast this leaves a growing need for greater rain for winter wheat, barley and canola development
    • Rain
      is also needed for spring planting next month
  • East
    Central Africa rainfall has been and will continue to be erratic and mostly beneficial over the next ten days
  • Canada
    Prairies will experience scattered showers over the next two weeks while temperatures are near to above average in the southwest and more seasonable northeast
    • Harvesting
      and crop maturation should advance relatively well during the period with only a few delays likely
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather during the weekend was mostly dry and mild to cool with temperatures coolest relative to normal in the northeast
    • Alternating
      periods of warm and cool weather will occur through the next ten days with restricted rainfall expected
    • The
      environment will support crop maturation, leaf defoliation and early harvesting
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Late
      season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
  • Philippines
    rainfall will increase over the next few days as a tropical disturbance moves through the nation
    • Locally
      heavy rain is expected and most of the moisture will be welcome for crops throughout the nation
  • Improving
    rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some heavy rain and possible flooding expected in parts of Kalimantan and Papua New Guinea
  • Ontario
    and Quebec rainfall will occur periodically over the next ten days alternating with periods of rain and sunshine; Temperatures will be seasonable
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be near to above average during the coming week and temperatures will be a little cooler than usual
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.09 today and it will stay positive this week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
Sept. 14:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions report, 4pm
  • Vietnam
    Customs data on exports of coffee, rice and rubber
  • Monthly
    MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
  • Heilongjiang
    Soy Association holds a summit in Harbin
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • International
    Palm Oil Sustainability Conference, Sept 14-22
  • HOLIDAYS:
    Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Venezuela

TUESDAY,
Sept. 15:

  • Australia’s
    Abares releases quarterly agricultural commodities report
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-15
  • France’s
    agriculture ministry to publish crop estimates
  • World
    Agri-Tech Innovation Summit, Sept. 15-16
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • HOLIDAYS:
    El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 16:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • FranceAgriMer
    supply and demand estimates
  • Future
    Food-Tech conference, Sept. 17-18
  • HOLIDAYS:
    Malaysia, Mexico

THURSDAY,
Sept. 17:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • USDA
    total milk production for August, 3pm
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Biosev
    SA 1Q 2021 earnings

FRIDAY,
Sept. 18:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat      
637,226     versus  450000-700000           range

Corn         
878,907     versus  500000-900000           range

Soybeans  
1,283,936  versus  800000-1500000         range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

REPORTED
IN WEEK ENDING SEP 10, 2020


METRIC TONS —

 

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      09/10/2020  09/03/2020  09/12/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0       1,996          49        5,727        3,036 

CORN         
878,907     887,889     423,129    1,150,827      895,139 

FLAXSEED           
0          72           0          389           48 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0          48           0          948          299 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM       
72,465         144      45,857       72,561       79,399 

SOYBEANS   
1,283,936   1,396,077     668,496    1,849,421    1,241,963 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
637,226     699,310     517,966    8,099,176    7,530,003 

Total      
2,872,534   2,985,536   1,655,497   11,179,049    9,749,887 

 

 

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

STATSCAN
CANADA 2020 STATISTIVAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES BASED ON SATELLITE DATA