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Weather
and Crop Progress

CPC
calls for a 75 percent chance for La Nina conditions through the 2020 winter for the Northern Hemisphere. 

 

 

WEATHER
COMMENTS

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

  • Frost
    and freezes occurred in northern and central parts of Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin Overnight as well as in extreme eastern South Dakota
    • Fog
      was present in much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which helped to hold temperatures up
    • Clear
      skies were noted from northwestern and west-central Minnesota  to western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming where additional frost and freezes occurred
      • Extreme
        lows slipped to 26 at Alliance, Nebraska and Pine Ridge, South Dakota with numerous other readings in the upper 20s from eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska to southwestern South Dakota
      • A
        few readings of 26-30 were also noted in small pocket in north-central Minnesota
    • Damage
      to crops was low, but some additional impact may have occurred in western Nebraska where readings were colder today than earlier this week
  • Center
    west Brazil and some center south crop areas have been advertised to receive a few showers after Sep. 20
    • The
      precipitation looks to be erratic and light, but it will be closely monitored since this would be the first rain for early season soybean areas of Brazil
  • Argentina’s
    weather is still unfavorable for meaningful rain in west-central parts of the nation for at least the next 10 days
  • Western
    Europe still has an opportunity to receive some rain in the second week of the forecast, but the significance of that event is low
  • No
    change in the dry bias was noted overnight for central or eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region western Kazakhstan or southeastern Europe
  • Eastern
    Australia’s crop areas are advertised wetter in the September 18-24 period
  • GFS
    model was advertising greater rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas Sep 18-22 on the 00z model run and Sep 20-22 on the 06z model run, the latter of which has a better chance of verifying – confidence in this change is low
  • A
    tropical wave expected to come off the west-central Africa coast this weekend may end up threatening the southeastern United States after September 20, but it is much too soon to have any confidence in the system since it has not evolved yet

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Eastern
    Australia will receive some needed rain next week to support reproduction in Queensland and northern New South Wales
    • Some
      rain fell in northern New South Wales Wednesday with amounts of 0.05 to 0.67 inch
      • The
        precipitation will shift into southeastern Queensland today
    • South
      Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales will receive some rain during the weekend and early to mid-week next week
    • A
      boost in rainfall is expected in eastern Australia Sep. 17-20 with some follow up precipitation expected Sep 21-22
      • The
        moisture will be ideal for raising topsoil moisture for better reproductive and pre-reproductive conditions for winter crops in New South Wales and Queensland
        • Some
          of the rain in Queensland may come a little too late to restore production potentials after recent dryness and frost and freezes
    • South
      Australia topsoil moisture will improve easing long term dryness
  • Western
    Australia may trend drier over the next couple of weeks while rain increases in eastern parts of the nation
  • North
    America weather is expected get back to a more normal weather pattern this weekend and next week
    • Less
      rain and warmer temperatures will impact the central United States
    • Upper
      level low pressure center over central U.S. Rocky Mountains today will be ejected to the western Great Lakes region Friday through the weekend sending another wave of rain across the central and northeastern Plains and western Corn Belt in addition to that
      which is present in the western Corn Belt today
    • Drier
      weather will follow the upper level low pressure center and weekend precipitation so that much of the central and eastern United States experience nearly a week of limited rainfall and seasonably warm temperatures
    • Canada’s
      Prairies will see near to above average temperatures and restricted rainfall, although not totally dry
    • Central
      and eastern Midwest dryness and warmth recently will give way to some rainfall and cooling briefly Friday into the weekend, but resulting rainfall from the northern Delta to Indiana will continue very limited
  • West
    Texas temperatures will slowly return to normal over the next few days rising from the 50s today to the 70s Friday and the 80s during the weekend and early next week
    • Boll
      lock may have occurred to many cotton crops from western Texas to southwestern Kansas, but that cannot be determined until warming returns Friday through next week
      • Boll
        opening will likely resume in the areas least impacted by recent cold
    • High
      temperatures Wednesday failed to warm past the 40s Fahrenheit in many production areas from western Texas to Kansas
      • No
        frost or freeze has occurred or is expected in the region
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas have benefited from recent rain and planting should advance more favorably as drier weather evolves this weekend and next week
  • U.S.
    northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies will experience more seasonable temperatures and relatively dry biased conditions for the next week to ten days allowing fieldwork to advance relatively well
  • Rain
    is needed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest for future autumn planting
  • Damage
    to dry edible beans has been significant in Wyoming from this week’s freezes with lighter damage in the northern U.S. Plains
  • Dryness
    in central and eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and
  • western
    Kazakhstan remains quite serious and little to no relief is expected for at least ten days and more likely another two weeks
  • Dryness
    also remains a serious concern in portions of southeastern Europe – mostly in the lower Danube River Basin, southeastern Roman and eastern Bulgaria
  • France
    and Germany are in need for rain and very little is expected for at least a week
    • Some
      forecast models are suggesting some moisture will occur late next week and into the following weekend in parts of France, Germany and neighboring areas
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands will begin receiving rain again in the second half of next week, but the precipitation will be brief and light
    • The
      region will dry down for nearly a week
      • The
        break from frequent rainfall will be good and should help get some fieldwork to advance
      • There
        is some concern that West Siberian small grains and sunseed might have been negatively impacted by recent frequent rain
    • Western
      portions of Russia’s New Lands will receive rain relatively frequently over the next week to ten days – this includes the Ural Mountains region
  • Northwestern
    Russia precipitation is expected to occur periodically in the next couple of weeks resulting in some slowing of winter wheat and rye planting and establishment as well as some delay to 2020 harvesting
    • However,
      favorable weather has occurred up until now supporting fieldwork and early winter crop emergence
    • Alternating
      periods of rain and sunshine are expected which should limit the delays somewhat
  • Northeastern
    China received additional rain from remnants of Typhoon Haishen Wednesday
    • Flooding
      should have begun to subside
    • Additional
      rainfall of 0.30 to 2.43 inches resulted with northern Jilin, western Heilongjiang and neighboring areas of Inner Mongolia wettest
  • Rain
    will occur a little too often in parts of northeastern China through the next ten days maintaining wet field conditions
    • Too
      much rain since mid-August has delayed crop maturation and induced some concern for crops produced in low-lying areas
  • East-central
    China weather should be favorably mixed over the next ten days supporting late season crop development and allowing some crop maturation to take place
    • Soil
      moisture will be good for early season wheat planting later this month and in October
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather in the northeast may not be ideal for harvest progress due to periods of light rain and cool weather into early next week
    • Southern
      and western parts of Xinjiang will continue to experience good crop maturation conditions with some leaf defoliation getting under way
  • Western
    Argentina remains too dry with little change likely, although rain will fall in southern and northeastern Argentina over the coming week
  • Southern
    Argentina will receive a few more light showers today and in eastern areas Friday, but west-central areas will remain drought stricken for at least ten days
    • Northeastern
      Argentina will get some rain this weekend and early next week benefiting some grain and cotton areas
    • There
      is some potential for improved rainfall in Argentina after Sep. 22, but confidence is low
  • Central,
    western and southern Mexico and much of Central America will continue to receive frequent rain leading to saturated soil conditions and some flooding
    • the
      moisture boost will be very good for improving water supply and easing long term dryness in Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and parts of central through southwestern Mexico
  • West-central
    Africa received some rain Wednesday
    • Amounts
      of 0.27 to 1.34 inches occurred in Ivory Coast while amounts to 0.57 inch occurred in Ghana
    • Much
      more rain is needed to ease long term dryness
    • Additional
      precipitation is expected periodically over the next two weeks
  • Tropical
    Storm Paulette was over open water in the central Atlantic Ocean and will stay over open water through the weekend
    • The
      storm will move to near Bermuda by early next week and could be a hurricane at that time
    • The
      storm poses no threat to North America
  • Tropical
    Storm Rene was well west northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning  and it will stay over open water while intensifying over the next two days
    • The
      storm may become a Hurricane by Friday night and then weaken during the weekend
    • Rene
      poses no threat to land
  • Tropical
    Wave near the North Carolina Coast will move to the U.S. Carolina Coast later today
    • The
      system is not expected to evolve into an organized tropical cyclone before reaching land, but rainfall will be enhanced over the Carolinas and neighboring states through the weekend because of the event
  • Brazil
    rainfall will continue greatest in the far south of the nation for at least the next ten days
    • Rain
      is advertised from Parana to southern Minas Gerais and possibly northwest to Mato Grosso Sep 21-24, but the event is too far out in time to have much confidence
      • The
        moisture would reach into some citrus, sugarcane and coffee production areas and might be good for early corn, but early indications suggest only very light rain
    • Center
      west Brazil looks to be dry and very warm to hot through Sep. 20
  • South
    Africa will be mostly dry through Monday
    • More
      rain is needed to support winter crop development and improve soil moisture for spring and summer crop planting next month
    • Some
      rain is expected during mid-week next week in eastern parts of the nation
  • Northern
    India will be dry this week while rain falls in central, southern and eastern parts of the nation
    • Cotton
      conditions will improve after being too wet earlier this month
    • Most
      grain and oilseed crops as well as pulses are suspected of being in very good shape
  • Improved
    rainfall has occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia recently
    • More
      precipitation is needed in southern Sumatra and western Java where it has been driest in recent months
      • Some
        erratic rainfall is expected over the next ten days with many areas getting additional moisture
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia continued to report erratic rainfall recently
    • Crop
      conditions are rated favorably, but greater rain is needed to ensure good water supply over the dry season
      • Water
        supply has not been replenished very well this year and greater rain is needed
  • Rain
    has been greatest in northern Luzon Island recently while most other areas in the Philippines have experienced net drying
    • Philippines
      rainfall should increase during the coming week
  • Pakistan
    weather is improving after flooding in late August
    • Central
      and southern Pakistan has been dry for a while and will continue dry
    • Very
      little rain will fall over the next ten days
  • Ontario
    and Quebec will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks; some drying will be needed thereafter to induce better crop maturation and harvest conditions
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be near to above average during the coming week and temperatures will be a little cooler than usual
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +8.43 today and it will stay positive the remainder of this week, although some weakening will continue over the next few days

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Sept. 10:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board’s end-Aug. palm oil stockpiles, production, export data
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-10
  • Conab’s
    data on production, area and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil

FRIDAY,
Sept. 11:

  • (Overnight)
    China agriculture ministry’s (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • New
    Zealand food prices

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims: 884K (est 850K, prev 881K)

US
Continuing Claims: 13385K (est 12904K, prev 13254K)

US
PPI Ex Food and Energy (M/M) Aug: 0.4% (est 0.2%, prev 0.5%)

US
PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Aug: – 0.2% (est -0.3%, prev -0.4%)

US
PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y) Aug: 0.6% (est 0.3%, prev 0.3%)