PDF Attached

 

Additional
Chinese soybean buying lifted soybeans higher.  Corn was on the defensive from the outcome of US crop conditions and wheat traded two-sided, finding technical buying after trading down four straight days. Chicago wheat ended mixed, KC higher and MN lower. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

WEATHER
COMMENTS

  • Additional
    frost and freezes occurred this morning from eastern Canada’s Prairies through northern and west-central Minnesota, North Dakota and eastern Montana to eastern Colorado and Wyoming
    • Early
      assessments of the past two days of frost, freezes and general cold suggest the following
      • Corn,
        soybeans, flax and late canola were most seriously harmed by freezes in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada Tuesday
      • Dry
        edible beans from Montana and Wyoming to northeastern Colorado and northeast into the northern Red River Basin were also seriously damaged
      • Sunseed,
        sugarbeets were impacted, but sugarbeets will not experience a significant change in production and the cold may increase sugar levels in some of the crop
      • Cotton
        boll lock is feared although not yet confirmed for crops produced from southwestern Kansas into western Texas
        • Some
          of the crop may come through the cold unscathed and a close watch is warranted
      • Drought
        and dryness along with excessive heat in recent weeks in the northwestern and west-central Plains should have had many summer crops more advanced than usual which should have reduced the impact of recent cold on unirrigated crops
      • Damage
        in the upper Midwest crops has been low so far with a quality decline expected to beans produced in eastern North Dakota and west-central and northern Minnesota
        • A
          few of the most immature soybeans and corn in the Upper U.S. Midwest may have been more seriously impacted, but the impact on national production should be low
  • Another
    cool night is expected tonight in the northern and west-west-central Plains as well as the upper Midwest and southwestern U.S. Plains
    • New
      damage will be limited to parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota, but the impact will be low and similar to that noted above
    • Ongoing
      concern over cotton bolls in the southwestern Plains will continue into Friday morning
  • Dryness
    in central and eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan remains quite serious and little to no relief is expected for at least ten days and more likely another two weeks
  • Dryness
    also remains a serious concern in portions of southeastern Europe – mostly in the lower Danube River Basin, southeastern Roman and eastern Bulgaria
  • France
    and Germany are in need for rain and very little is expected for at least a week
    • Some
      forecast models are suggesting some moisture will occur late next week and into the following weekend in parts of France and Germany
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands will begin receiving rain again in the second half of next week
    • The
      region will dry down for nearly a week
      • The
        break from frequent rainfall will be good and should help get some fieldwork to advance
      • There
        is some concern that West Siberian small grains and sunseed might have been negatively impacted by recent frequent rain
  • Northwestern
    Russia precipitation is expected to occur periodically in the next couple of weeks resulting in some slowing of winter wheat and rye planting and establishment as well as some delay to 2020 harvesting
    • However,
      favorable weather has occurred up until now supporting fieldwork and early winter crop emergence
  • Northeastern
    China received additional heavy rainfall of 2.00 to more than 6.00 inches Tuesday from remnants of Typhoon Haishen
    • Flooding
      remains a serious issues in northeastern China from too much rain since mid-August
  • Rain
    will prevail in portions of northeastern China through the weekend delaying a much needed drying trend and leaving concern over soybean and corn conditions in eastern Liaoning and Jilin as well as a part of Heilongjiang
    • Too
      much rain since mid-August has delayed crop maturation and induced some concern for crops produced in low-lying areas
    • Another
      frontal system is expected early next week that will generate another wave of rain further delaying crop maturation and harvesting
  • East-central
    China weather should be favorably mixed over the next ten days supporting late season crop development and allowing some crop maturation to take place
    • Soil
      moisture will be good for early season wheat planting later this month and in October
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather will be mostly good for crop maturation and harvest progress over the next couple of weeks.
  • Western
    Argentina remains too dry with little change likely, although rain will fall in southern and northeastern Argentina over the coming week
  • Southern
    Argentina will receive a few more light showers during mid- to late week this week, but the impact on soil moisture and crop conditions will be low
    • Moisture
      totals will vary from 0.05 to 0.35 inch except near the Buenos Aires south coast where rainfall may range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches
    • Northeastern
      Argentina will get some rain late this week benefiting a few grain and cotton areas with follow up rain in the same area during mid- to late-week next week
    • There
      is still no relief expected for the drought areas of western Argentina during the coming ten days
  • Australia
    still needs significant rain to support reproduction in Queensland, northern New South Wales and northern parts of Western Australia
  • Mexico
    and Central America have trended much wetter recently and the trend will continue; relief from dryness in Honduras and Nicaragua is becoming more complete
  • West-central
    Africa remains too dry especially in Ghana and eastern coffee and cocoa production areas of Ivory Coast
  • Tropical
    Storm Paulette was over open water in the central Atlantic Ocean and will stay over open water through the next week posing no threat to land
  • Tropical
    Storm Rene was west northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning  and it will stay over open water while intensifying over the next several days
    • The
      storm may become a Hurricane later in the week
    • Rene
      poses no threat to land
  • Tropical
    Wave 400 miles southeast of North Carolina will move to the U.S. Carolina Coast Thursday
    • Some
      development is possible into a tropical depression, although confidence is low and the impact on crop areas will be very low as well
  • Brazil
    rainfall will continue greatest in the far south of the nation for at least the next ten days
    • Rain
      is advertised from Parana to southern Minas Gerais Sep 21-23, but the event is too far out in time to have much confidence
      • The
        moisture would reach into some citrus, sugarcane and coffee production areas and might be good for early corn, but early indications suggest only light rain
    • Center
      west Brazil looks to be dry and very warm to hot through Sep. 23
  • South
    Africa will be mostly dry the remainder of this week except in a few coastal areas
    • More
      rain is needed to support winter crop development and improve soil moisture for spring and summer crop planting next month
  • Northern
    India will be dry this week while rain falls in central, southern and eastern parts of the nation
    • Cotton
      conditions will improve after being too wet earlier this month
  • Improved
    rainfall occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia recently
    • More
      precipitation is needed in Sumatra and western Java where it has been driest in recent months
      • Some
        erratic rainfall is expected over the next ten days with many areas getting additional moisture
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia continued to report erratic rainfall recently
    • Crop
      conditions are rated favorably, but greater rain is needed to ensure good water supply over the dry season
      • Water
        supply has not been replenished very well this year and greater rain is needed
  • Rain
    has been greatest in northern Luzon Island recently while most other areas in the Philippines have experienced net drying
    • Philippines
      rainfall should increase during the coming week
  • Australia
    weather over the coming week will include some light rainfall over some of the nation’s winter crop region, but most of the rain will be a little too light to seriously bolster soil moisture
    • Showers
      will occur today into Friday from Eastern New South Wales into southeastern Queensland
    • Some
      forecast models are increasing rain for New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria after Sep. 16, but confidence is low
  • Pakistan
    weather is improving after flooding in late August
    • Central
      and southern Pakistan was dry during the weekend
    • Very
      little rain will fall over the next ten days
  • Ontario
    and Quebec will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks; some drying will be needed thereafter to induce better crop maturation and harvest conditions
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be erratically distributed for a while and temperatures will be a little cooler biased
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +8.70 today and it will stay positive the remainder of this week, although some weakening will continue over the next few days

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Sept. 10:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board’s end-Aug. palm oil stockpiles, production, export data
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-10
  • Conab’s
    data on production, area and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil

FRIDAY,
Sept. 11:

  • (Overnight)
    China agriculture ministry’s (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • New
    Zealand food prices

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Macros

Canadian
Housing Starts Aug: 262.4K (exp 217.5K; prev 245.6K)

US
EIA Cuts Forecast For 2021 World Oil Demand Growth By 490K Bpd, Now Sees 6.53M Bpd YoY Increase


Cuts Forecast For 2020 World Oil Demand Growth By 210K Bpd, Now Sees 8.32M Bpd YoY Drop