PDF Attached

 

USDA
reported 318,000 tons of soybeans sold to China and 175,000 tons of soybean meal sold to the Philippines.  The US will see wetter conditions for the Sunday/Monday period where rains in Iowa and Illinois occur, although this is too late.  US markets are closed
on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.  US holiday trading schedule in excel format

https://bit.ly/3jBe9kw

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

MORNING
WEATHER MODEL COMMENTS

 

NORTH
AMERICA

  • Slightly
    less threatening cold was noted for the upper Midwest during mid-week next week, although temperatures will still slip into the 30s Fahrenheit
    • Frost
      and a couple of light freezes cannot be ruled out especially with the event still so far out in time
  • Damaging
    freezes are expected in Montana and Wyoming’s dry bean and sugarbeet areas and in a few other late season crop areas
  • Freezes
    will be most significant from Montana to Manitoba Tuesday with frost and light freezes expected from parts of Nebraska to northwestern and west-central Minnesota and the Dakotas Wednesday morning
  • Today’s
    GFS model run is wetter for Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, southern Wisconsin and neighboring areas relative to that of Thursday morning, although the same area is advertised to be impacted by rain
    • Amounts
      may be a little overdone, but it will rain and soil moisture improvements in some of the drier areas will result
  • Rain
    and some wet snow is still expected to come out of Wyoming into eastern Colorado and a few northwestern Kansas locations Monday into Tuesday morning; rain also falls across other central Plains crop areas
    • The
      moisture for hard red winter wheat areas will be welcome for early planting that is getting under way
  • GFS
    model was wetter in Saskatchewan and a part of Manitoba for Sep 11-13
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • GFS
    suggested rain in the southwestern and central U.S. Plains Sep 14-16
    • Some
      of this may be overdone
  • GFS
    reduced rainfall in the heart of the Midwest while increasing it in the southeastern states Sep. 14-16
    • Both
      changes may  have been a little overdone, but trends may have been correct
  • GFS
    reduced rain from the southern Plains through the Delta to the central Midwest for Sep. 17-18
    • This
      change was needed

 

Today’s
forecast model runs are still keeping the general theme on the cold similar to that of Thursday with the west-central and northwestern Plains into eastern Canada’s Prairies most vulnerable frost and freezes. The heart of the Midwest will see abundant rainfall
and that will help ease dryness in some areas and help hold temperatures up while the unusually cold airmass moderates. The second week of the outlook in key Midwestern locations is a little drier biased and warmer weather will return.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • Some
    rain is expected Saturday in La Pampa with a little follow up precipitation during the middle to latter part of next week from La Pampa into western Buenos Aires
  • Otherwise
    the model outlook for Argentina has not changed much today relative to that of Thursday; rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days especially in the drier areas of western and northern Argentina

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    significant changes were noted for the coming ten days
    • France
      and central Germany do not get an abundance of moisture and will remain in need of improved precipitation
  • There
    is some potential for rain in western Europe’s drier areas after Sep. 14

 

Rain
is still expected from Italy into a part of Poland periodically in the coming week to ten days. Rain will also fall in northern parts of the U.K. and in the Baltic Sea region. Net drying occurs in France, Spain, central Germany and the middle and lower Danube
River Basin. Some showers will occur infrequently in central and eastern Ukraine into Krasnodar while much of Russia’s Southern region northeast of Krasnodar will be mostly dry along with western Kazakhstan

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    significant changes were noted during the coming ten days today
    • Rain
      is still advertised to be most frequent in the easternmost New Lands where some concern over unharvest small grain and sunseed quality is expected
    • Most
      of the key spring wheat and sunseed areas will experience a good environment for crop maturation and harvesting

 

CHINA

  • Not
    much change in the models today over the next week to ten days
    • Northeastern
      China will get excessive another round of excessive rain from the remnants of Typhoon Haishen that will move through the Korean Peninsula late this weekend into early next week before reaching northeastern China early next week as well
      • Rainfall
        to more than 8.00 inches fell in northeastern China Thursday from remnants of Typhoon Maysak and 4.00 to 8.00 inches and local totals to 10.00 inches will accompany Haishen
        • Jilin
          and Heilongjiang will be most impacted
      • Flooding
        remains a serious problem in parts of northeastern China
    • East-central
      China will experience a favorable drying environment over the coming week to ten days
    • Southeastern
      China will experience periods of rain and will stay wet especially in the southwest

 

INDIA

  • No
    changes overnight
    • Northern
      India will be rainy through the weekend and then trend drier next week
      • Some
        concern over cotton quality will remain in the north through the weekend and then conditions will improve
      • Drier
        weather is expected in northern India next week
    • Gujarat,
      western Rajasthan and central and southern Pakistan are already drying out will continue doing so over the coming week
    • Some
      increase in rainfall may impact southern and eastern Gujarat and far southern Rajasthan during the Sep. 12-18 period
    • India’s
      wettest weather is expected in the central, south and eastern parts of the nation over the next ten days

 

AUSTRALIA

  • Rain
    was suggested to increase Wednesday into Thursday of next week in southeastern Queensland and New South Wales
    • The
      increase may verify, although it is not a general soaking
      • Any
        rain would be welcome to support reproducing winter crops
  • Not
    much other change was noted in Australia through the coming week to ten days
    • Rain
      continues mostly in the far south parts of the nation’s crop areas over the next two weeks

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
SEPT. 4:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • CNGOIC’s
    monthly supply-demand report on Chinese feed grains and oilseeds
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Statcan’s
    data on Canada wheat, barley, soy, canola and durum stocks
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

MONDAY,
Sept. 7:

  • China
    trade data on soybean and meat imports
  • International
    Grains Council secretariat briefing on trade
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • AB
    Foods trading update
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.S., Brazil, Canada, Thailand

TUESDAY,
Sept. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop condition, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Council webinar on Middle East, North Africa palm trade
  • Abares
    Australian crop report

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 9:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)

THURSDAY,
Sept. 10:

  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board’s end-Aug. palm oil stockpiles, production, export data
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-10
  • Conab’s
    data on production, area and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil

FRIDAY,
Sept. 11:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am