PDF Attached

 

Rumors
of China buying US soybeans sent prices higher.  Corn followed while wheat traded low on lack of bullish news and less threatening weather forecast for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. 

 

September
7 (Monday) US holiday trading schedule in excel format

https://bit.ly/3jBe9kw

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

MORNING
WEATHER MODEL COMMENTS

NORTH
AMERICA

  • Cooling
    advertised for next week was much less aggressive today relative to Tuesday’s forecast model runs and the change seems to have been needed
    • Sunday
      will bring some frost to Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan Canada
    • Monday
      will generate similar conditions in northeastern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba with a few light freezes possible in the northernmost crop areas
    • Tuesday
      will bring frost and freezes to the eastern Canada Prairies possible ending the growing season for some areas and possibly pushing some frosty conditions into the northwestern Plains
    • Wednesday
      of next week will bring some frost potential to western Nebraska and immediate neighboring areas as well as a few areas in the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. A few freezes cannot be ruled out for the eastern Dakotas, the northwest half of Minnesota and possibly
      in a couple of western Nebraska locations, but most other temperatures will be above the damage threshold
  • Most
    of today’s models are quick in bringing back warmer air to North America late next week and into the following weekend
  • Rainfall
    was increased from eastern Kansas through Missouri to the Michigan and southern Wisconsin early next week ahead of the mid-week cold
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • The
    06z GFS model reduced rainfall in the central Plains for Tuesday and some reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was also increased in western Tennessee and Kentucky for mid-week next week while some of the heavy rain suggested for northeastern Texas over the next several days was reduced
    • The
      increase was overdone, but less rain in Texas was needed
  • Rain
    was increased from eastern Iowa to Wisconsin during mid-week next week
    • The
      increase was overdone
  • Rain
    was increased in southern Alberta and central Montana Sep 12-14
    • This
      was overdone
  • Rain
    from Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia to Pennsylvania and New England was shifted farther to the east Sep 12-14
    • The
      change was needed
  • Showers
    were increased in the northern Plains and parts of Canada’s Prairies Sep 15-16
    • The
      increase was overdone
  • Rain
    in the interior southeastern states was reduced Sep. 15-16
    • The
      change was needed

 

World
Weather, Inc. would not be surprised to see a second shot of cool air put back into the models for a little later next week. It seems that the cold episode ends too quickly given the environment in which it evolves from.  The rainfall increase in the Midwest
early to mid-week next week may be a little overdone, although some increase in rainfall was needed relative to yesterday’s forecasts.  Too much moisture was returned to the northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies during the second week of the outlook.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • 06z
    GFS model run reduced rain from Cordoba and southern Santa Fe into La Pampa and Buenos Aires Sep 13-14; Rain was also reduced in Entre Rios Sep 15
    • This
      change was badly needed as the previous model run was much too wet
  • Rain
    was reduced in Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro for Sep 12-15
    • The
      reduction was needed and the models may still be too wet for this area
  • Some
    reduction in rainfall was suggested for far southern Brazil Sep. 15-16
    • The
      change was needed

 

Not
a lot of change was suggested during the first tend days of the outlook today relative to that of Tuesday for both Argentina and Brazil. Rain in the following five days was increased in southern Argentina and there is some potential for verification, but the
00z model run was much too wet and the 06z run was a little better. Brazil’s wetter bias will remain along the coast and in far southern parts of the nation which should prove to be correct.

 

EUROPE

  • No
    significant changes were noted during the coming ten days

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    significant changes were noted during the coming ten days

 

Rain
still falls too frequently in the far eastern New Lands where some concern over spring wheat and sunseed conditions remains and where some harvest delay is likely

 

CHINA

  • Not
    much change in the models today – it is all about the tropical cyclones in northeastern China
    • Northeastern
      China will get excessive rain from Typhoon Maysak later today into Friday with flooding likely
    • Northeastern
      China will also be impacted by Typhoon Haishen that will arrive late Sunday and continue into Tuesday bringing excessive rain and flooding once again
      • If
        both storms impact northeastern China some crop damage will come to the region because of excessive moisture and flooding
      • Delays
        in crop maturation and harvesting will also be a serious threat
      • Some
        serious property damage and crop impact is possible
    • The
      Korean Peninsula will be inundated by excessive rain, flooding and strong wind today and early Thursday and again late Saturday into Monday
      • South
        Korea will be most impacted, but both North and South Korea will experience serious flooding and considerable crop and property damage
      • These
        areas have been flooded frequently in recent weeks and damage to personal property and agriculture will be extensive especially in South Korea where excessive wind is also expected and notable storm surges will come to the south coast in both events (today
        and Sunday)
    • Western
      Japan will also be impacted by Typhoon Haishen with damaging wind, severe flooding and a notable storm surge resulting in serious property damage for Kyushu
    • East-central
      and interior southeastern China will experience a favorable drying environment over the coming week to ten days

INDIA

  • No
    changes overnight
    • Northern
      India will be rainy through the weekend and then trend drier next week
      • Some
        concern over cotton quality will remain in the north through the weekend and then conditions will improve
    • Gujarat,
      western Rajasthan and central and southern Pakistan will be drying out in the coming week
    • Monsoonal
      rains will begin drawing in the north next week while rain falls frequently in the south and east

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    change
    • Rain
      will continue mostly confined to the south coast and lower east coast
      • Some
        increase in rainfall occurred in southwestern Western Australia late next week, but it was likely overdone
    • Queensland
      drought will remain a threat to reproduction
    • Rain
      is still needed in South Australia and northern Western Australia as well

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
SEPT. 2:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • UkrAgroConsult’s
    Black Sea Grain Conference in Kyiv (Sept. 2-3)
  • Russia’s
    Agriculture Ministry holds annual conference to discuss production and the industry
  • HOLIDAY:
    Vietnam

THURSDAY,
SEPT. 3:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand commodity price

FRIDAY,
SEPT. 4:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • CNGOIC’s
    monthly supply-demand report on Chinese feed grains and oilseeds
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Statcan’s
    data on Canada wheat, barley, soy, canola and durum stocks
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

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