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7 (Monday) US holiday trading schedule in excel format



led the rally in all three major commodities.  Soybean meal ended lower and soybean oil higher. 






  • Super
    Typhoon Maysak will bring horrific rain and wind to South Korea Wednesday and heavy rain and flooding from North Korea into northeastern China; Wednesday into Friday will be stormiest
  • Tropical
    Storm 11W has formed south of Japan and promises to become another very strong typhoon that may threaten western Japan late this weekend into early next week
    • The
      remnants of this storm may also impact northeastern China
  • A
    tropical depression may evolve this week in the Caribbean Sea and move toward Central America
  • Tropical
    Depression Fifteen evolved off the lower east U.S. coast and was 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras early this morning moving east northeasterly overt the next couple of days taking the storm away from North America with very little intensification expected
  • Dryness
    remains in portions of the western and central U.S. Corn Belt with only partial relief expected this week
  • Argentina’s
    rainfall this week will not occur in the driest wheat areas, but some improved topsoil moisture will occur in the northeastern corn and sunseed areas
    • Entre
      Rios, Corrientes and parts of Santa Fe will be wettest over the next couple of days
  • Heavy
    rain will diminish in northwestern Mexico over the next couple of days; Wet weather will continue in the west and south parts of the nation through the next ten days
    • Some
      increased rainfall may occur in eastern Mexico late this week and into the weekend as the tropical wave from the Caribbean begins to influence the region
  • Dryness
    remains in Queensland, Australia and that may harm winter crop reproduction in the next two weeks
  • India’s
    monsoon will begin to withdraw next week
  • Rain
    in northern India over the next several days will raise more concern over open boll cotton quality, but the moisture will be good for future winter crop use
  • Heavy
    rain Gujarat, India and Sindh, Pakistan has ended, and these areas will dry out over the next week
  • Ivory
    Coast and Ghana rainfall will slowly increase in the next two weeks; some beneficial rain occurred in Ivory Coast coffee and cocoa areas during the weekend
  • France
    and parts of Germany are going to remain dry biased for the next ten days
  • Drought
    will prevail in central and eastern Ukraine into Bulgaria and from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan
  • Frost
    and freezes will evolve in parts of Canada’s Prairies  during the weekend with some frost in the northernmost U.S. Plains and uppermost Midwest near the Canada border early next week; confidence in the U.S. frost is rising with Sep. 6-8 to be coldest and a
    few light freezes cannot be ruled out
  • South
    Korea will be seriously damaged by Typhoon Maysak Wednesday with some damage in North Korea expected too
  • Australia’s
    rainfall during the next week will be mostly concentrated on the south and lower east and lower west coasts leaving interior crop areas in a drying trend
  • South
    Africa rainfall may increase briefly this week to offer a little moisture for eastern wheat and barley production areas; more rain will be needed
  • Brazil
    weather will remain wettest from southeastern Parana into Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay during the coming week; the moisture will be good for winter crops
  • Ontario
    and Quebec will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks; some drying will be needed thereafter to induce better crop maturation and harvest conditions
  • Central
    America rainfall will be frequent and significant
  • Central
    through northeastern Europe will be wettest this week with periods of rain continuing to maintain moisture abundance and a good environment for crop development
  • Southeast
    Europe will be dry biased over the coming ten days to two weeks
    • Areas
      from central and eastern Ukraine to central and eastern Bulgaria will see very little rainfall and temperatures will be warmer than usual
      • Crop
        stress will continue high in this region with a further decline in summer crop yields and quality
        • Faster
          than usual crop maturation and harvest progress is expected this year as long as rainfall stays limited
  • Russia’s
    northeastern New Lands will continue to experience some brief periods of drizzle and light rain over the coming week to ten days
    • Most
      of the precipitation will be very light, but there is some concern over unharvested small grain and sunseed quality
    • Dry
      and warm weather is needed to induce the best maturation and harvest conditions
  • A
    favorable mix of weather will occur over the next ten days in other western CIS locations, but net drying will continue in central and eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan
    • Temperatures
      will be very warm to hot in this region as well
  • Tropical
    Wave in eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean will likely move to the central Atlantic without a threat to land.
  • Interior
    east-central China will experience net drying this week and weekend while showers and thunderstorms slowly return to the southern provinces where some locally heavy rain is possible
  • Xinjiang
    China will continue to experience alternating periods of mild and warm weather with a few showers northeast
    • Warm
      and dry weather is desirable to help speed cotton and other crops toward maturity after a slightly cooler than usual summer
  • Freezing
    temperatures in southeastern eastern Australia this morning had no lasting impact on crops


  • Indonesia
    rainfall continues erratic
    • Central
      and southern Sumatra has been steadily drying recently and needs significant rain
    • Java
      is also quite dry, but some of that dryness is seasonal
    • Rainfall
      over the next ten days will continue erratic, but at least some rain will fall in each production area at one time or another
    • Rain
      is needed most in parts of Sumatra and western Java
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.74 today and it will continue positive with the recent rise slowly leveling off for a while

World Weather Inc. 


Ag Calendar

SEPT. 1:

  • Australia
    commodity index
  • U.S.
    Purdue agriculture sentiment
  • USDA
    soybean crush, 3pm
  • U.S.
    corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
  • FO
    Licht’s virtual Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo (Sept. 1-3)
  • Cotton
    outlook update by International Cotton Advisory Committee in Washington
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for August 1-31

SEPT. 2:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • UkrAgroConsult’s
    Black Sea Grain Conference in Kyiv (Sept. 2-3)
  • Russia’s
    Agriculture Ministry holds annual conference to discuss production and the industry

SEPT. 3:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand commodity price

SEPT. 4:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • CNGOIC’s
    monthly supply-demand report on Chinese feed grains and oilseeds
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Statcan’s
    data on Canada wheat, barley, soy, canola and durum stocks

Bloomberg and FI



Crude Oil Seen Averaging $42.75/Barrel In 2020 (Versus $41.50 In July Poll) – RTRS Poll

Crude Oil Seen Averaging $38.82/Barrel In 2020 (Versus $37.51 In July Poll)



  • December
    corn futures finished 0.25 cent higher at $3.58/bu.  Earlier
    corn futures hit a one-week low from a less than expected drop in US crop ratings.  The two-sided trade was in part to a lower USDA and higher wheat.  Overbought conditions limited gains and the December failed to test its 200-day moving average as it did
    yesterday, a bearish indicator for the short term, in our opinion.  The December corn and November soybean spread sits at 2.67, highest since in more than a week.  We think if the trade fails to extend short covering (managed money now about 47,000 net short),
    and extend long positions in soybeans, the SX/CZ could widen back to 2.70-2.75 area sometime in September. 
  • Funds
    bought an estimate net 1,000 corn.  
  • Toledo,
    OH, CBOT deliverable soybean and corn stocks are at zero.  
  • APK-Inform
    estimated Ukraine’s corn crop could fall 8 percent to 35.1 million tons.  Exports are seen at 28.5MMT, down 3 percent from 2019-20.
  • Brazil
    failed to renew their zero-tariff ethanol import quota that will be a blow to US ethanol exporters.  It will revert to 20% starting today.  Later in the day a Reuters story noted they are relooking into temporary quota for tariff-free ethanol imports. 
  • Brazil
    exported 6.48 million tons of corn during the month of August, up from 7.3 million tons a year ago. 
  • Indonesia
    plans to cull 4.4 million chickens by September 13 to support depressed egg prices.
  • A
    Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be unchanged at 931,000 barrels (918-945 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 239,000 barrels to 20.648 million.
  • USDA
    NASS reported the July corn for ethanol grind at 424 million bushels, well above a Bloomberg trade guess of 408 million bushels, higher than 379 million for June and 451 million during July 2019. 



Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters sold 596,000 tons of corn to China, identical to yesterday’s announcement. 






  • December
    is seen in a $3.40-$3.85 range. 



  • Brazil
    exported 6.2 million tons of soybeans during the month of August, up from 5 million tons a year ago. 
  • Brazil’s
    2020-21 soybean crop is seen unchanged by StoneX from their previous estimate at 132.6 million tons with a planted area of 38 million tons. 
  • Anec
    estimated 2020 Brazil soybean exports at 82 million tons and corn between 31 and 33 million tons. 
  • Manitoba,
    Canada, was only 7 percent harvested for canola compared to 47 percent for the 3-year average.  Dry bean and canola desiccation or swathing is occurring in much of the Eastern, Central and Southwest regions, according to a weekly AgMin report. 
  • Ukraine’s
    deputy minister projected sunflower production down 8.5 percent to 14 million tons from 15.3 million in 2019.  
    reported earlier that Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices appreciated by $15-$25 per ton over the past week.  Ukraine started harvesting sunflowers around mid-August. 
  • An
    increase in rain forecast for later this week for the WCB will be too late to boost crop conditions. 
  • U.S.
    Delta will receive additional rain this week keeping producers out of the fields while drier weather will occur in the Midwest and Delta late this week. 



Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown. 
  • Results
    awaited: Algeria seeks 30,000 tons of soybean meal for shipment by September 25, optional origin. 


Export Developments

  • Egypt’s
    GASC seeks local soybean and sunflower oil on September 3 for November 1-25 delivery. 



  • November
    soybeans are seen in a $9.25-$10.00 range.  
  • December
    soybean meal is seen in a $290-$325 range.   
  • December
    soybean oil is seen in a 32.50-35.00 range.  





  • South
    Korea MFG

    70,000 tons of feed wheat for late Dec and/or early Jan shipment. 
    offer was believed to be $249.80 a ton c&f. 
  • Japan
    seeks 106,937 tons of food wheat later this week for arrival by December 31.

  • Results
    looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  • Algeria
    seeks wheat on Sep 2 for October shipment. 
  • Jordan
    issued another import tender for 120,0,00 tons of wheat set to close Sep 2. 
  • Syria
    seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from EU/Russia on Sept. 9 and 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia on Sept. 14.



South Korea bought 60,556 tons of rice for Dec 31-Feb 28 delivery from Vietnam and India. 

US rice traded higher on US crop concerns



  • December
    Chicago is seen in a $5.30-$5.75 range. 
  • December
    KC $4.50-$5.60.  
  • December
    MN $5.25-$5.70.


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366


AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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