PDF Attached

 

Note
prices and basis can be found after the wheat section.  We migrated to the cloud so it may take up to a month to get back up and running with multiple tables to support the reports that are issued on a daily basis

 

Calls: 
(note
some are calling the market lower due to less than expected drop in crop conditions and StoneX survey results)

Corn
1-3 higher

Soybeans
2-4 higher

Wheat
steady higher

 

Volatile
trade was seen today.  U.S. Delta will receive additional rain this week keeping producers out of the fields while drier weather will occur in the Midwest and Delta late this week.  USDA announced 596,000 tons of corn was sold to China for 2020-21 delivery. 
Malaysia was on holiday.  Egypt seeks soybean oil and sunflower oil for November shipment.  Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of wheat and it was confirmed Pakistan added 320,000 tons of wheat to their 1.5-million-ton import tender.  South Korea’s MFG is in for 70,000
tons of feed wheat. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

·        
Corn 62% G/E down 2 pts (exp down 3pts), vs 64% last week, and 58% a year ago

·        
Corn mature 12% vs 5% last week, and 5% a year ago

·        
Soybeans 66% G/E down 3pts as expected, vs 69% last week, and 55% a year ago

·        
Soybean drop leaves 8% vs 4% last week, and 3% a year ago

·        
Louisiana Soy G/E down 28pts to 60% G/E on Hurricane Laura

·        
Kansas Soy G/E down 11pts to 56% G/E on persistent dryness

·        
Spring wheat harvest 69% G/E vs 49% last week, and 50% a year ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

  • MAIN
    THREATS AROUND THE WORLD
    • Typhoon
      Maysak will bring horrific rain and wind to South Korea this week and heavy rain and flooding from North Korea into northeastern China; Wednesday through Friday will be stormiest
    • New
      tropical depression will form south of Japan this week and it will become a strong storm before moving across western Japan this weekend possibly causing some damage to agriculture and personal property
    • A
      tropical depression may evolve this week in the Caribbean Sea and move toward Central America
    • Tropical
      depression will form off the lower east U.S. coast early this week, but it will move away from land
    • Dryness
      remains in portions of the western and central U.S. Corn Belt with only partial relief expected this week
    • Argentina’s
      rainfall this week will not occur in the driest wheat areas, but some improved topsoil moisture will occur in the northeastern corn and sunseed areas
    • Heavy
      rain will continue in western and southern Mexico this week; flooding will be possible in Sinaloa, southwestern Chihuahua and western Durango and a few neighboring areas
    • Dryness
      remains in Queensland, Australia and that may harm winter crop reproduction in the next two weeks
    • India’s
      monsoon will begin to withdraw this coming weekend and next week
    • Heavy
      rain will end in Gujarat, India and Sindh, Pakistan early this week with a little rain in southwestern Rajasthan as well
    • Ivory
      Coast and Ghana rainfall will slowly increase in the next two weeks; some beneficial rain occurred in Ivory Coast coffee and cocoa areas during the weekend
    • Western
      Europe rainfall may increase after this workweek and into next week
    • Drought
      will prevail in central and eastern Ukraine into Bulgaria and from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan
    • Frost
      and freezes may evolve in parts of Canada’s Prairies  during the weekend with some frost “possible” in the northernmost U.S. Plains and uppermost Midwest near the Canada border; confidence in the U.S. frost is still a little low, but Sep. 6-8 will be coldest
      and a few light freezes cannot be ruled out

 

WEATHER
ISSUES IN DETAIL

  • U.S.
    weekend weather was mostly dry from portions of Iowa through much of northeastern Missouri to much of Illinois and parts of west-central and southwestern Indiana
    • Limited
      rainfall also occurred in the northern Plains
    • Much
      of central and southern Texas was dry along with central parts of the Delta and in the southeastern states from much of Georgia to central and eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
    • Rain
      fell in Wisconsin, western and southern Michigan, northern Indiana and much of Ohio except the southwest
      • Amounts
        ranged from 0.35 to 1.68 inches
      • Rainfall
        in southern Michigan and northeastern Indiana to northern and eastern Ohio where 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain resulted
        • Local
          totals reached up to 3.00 inches
    • Remnants
      of Hurricane Laura produced 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches from northeastern Arkansas to Kentucky, Tennessee, northeastern Mississippi and northern Alabama
    • Rain
      fell across Kansas, the Texas Panhandle and eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and western and southern Missouri
      • Moisture
        totals varied from 0.50 to 1.60 inches with locally greater amounts
    • Scattered
      showers also occurred from eastern Texas through the central Gulf of Mexico coast to parts of Florida with 0.25 to 1.00 inch of rain with local totals of 1.00 to more than 3.00 inches
    • Hot
      weather occurred Friday from the central Plains into the Midwest with highest temperatures in the 90s
    • Hot
      weather occurred most of the weekend in the southern Plains with highs in the range of 100 to 111 degrees Fahrenheit
    • Cooling
      occurred in much of the northern and central Plains and Midwest during the weekend with highs Sunday afternoon in the 70s
    • Lowest
      morning temperatures were no cooler than the 40s and 50s in the northern states and were as warm as the 70s across the southern states
  • U.S.
    Delta weather through mid-week will remain too wet for rice and cotton quality
    • Drier
      weather is needed immediately to protect crop conditions
    • A
      near daily rainfall pattern is expected over the next ten days which may prevent meaningful drying from occurring while cotton is in the open boll stage of development and which rice is being harvested
  • Frequent
    showers and thunderstorms will also continue through the next ten days in the U.S. southeastern states there may also be some ongoing concern over crop quality
  • U.S.
    Midwest weather over the next two weeks will be well mixed with periods of rain and sunshine expected; however, some of the crop areas in Iowa and a few other areas in the west will experience net drying conditions
    • Milder
      temperatures this week will conserve soil moisture through lower evaporation rates, but those areas suffering from dryness will continue stressed
    • Most
      of the declines in production potentials will be slowed by the coming ten days of periodic showers and milder temperatures, but no reversal in the production cuts are likely in the western Corn Belt and until significant rain falls some further decline in
      production may result even though it will be smaller than the previous losses
    • Eastern
      and southern Midwest locations will receive plenty of moisture to support improved late season crop conditions
  • West
    Texas may receive some rain Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will not soak the region
    • Temperatures
      will gradually cool down from the hot readings of the weekend and will become more seasonable during the second half of this week

 

  • Very
    little rain will fall in the far western United States over the coming week and temperatures will begin trending warmer than usual as the week advances forward

 

  • Far
    southern Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains will continue to experience restricted rainfall and net drying conditions for the next ten days
    • Other
      areas in the Prairies will experience a mix of weather with rainfall sufficient to increase topsoil moisture; this may lead to a slowdown in crop maturation and harvest progress
    • The
      drier areas will continue to experience faster crop maturation rates relative to normal and a quick harvest
  • Ontario
    and Quebec will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks; some drying will be needed thereafter to induce better crop maturation and harvest conditions
  • Mexico
    rainfall will be greatest in the west and south this week bolstering soil moisture and inducing some local flooding
    • Some
      areas are already saturated with moisture and will be succumb to the excessive moisture raising some concern over crop conditions
  • Central
    America rainfall will be frequent and significant
  • Argentina
    rainfall this week will be greatest Tuesday and Wednesday in the northeast and east-central parts of the country
    • Entre
      Rios, southern Corrientes and Santa Fe will be wettest with 0.40 to 1.50 inches and a few totals over 2.50 inches
    • Rain
      elsewhere will not be significant
    • Most
      other areas will experience erratic rainfall over the next ten days with net drying most likely leaving moisture stress for Cordoba, many Santa Few locations and some other areas
  • Brazil
    rainfall will be frequent in the far south during the next ten days followed by a drier biased environment after that
    • Rainfall
      of 2.00 to 5.00 inches and locally more will occur from southeastern Parana to southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil with some lighter rain in northwestern Rio Grande do Sul
    • Net
      drying is expected elsewhere except along the coast where rainfall may vary from 0.04 to 0.35 inch most days with a few totals over 0.50 inch
    • The
      environment will be good for most crops, although a few wheat areas might become a little too wet; corn planting should advance in the drier areas and on the drier days
  • South
    Africa will receive some rain east of Northern Cape Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in a short term boost in topsoil moisture for wheat and barley
    • More
      rain will impact eastern wheat and barley production areas late in the coming weekend and early next week
    • Improved
      wheat conditions will result, although more rain will be needed
  • Western
    South Africa will also experience some light rainfall early to mid-week this week benefiting some wheat, barley and canola crops
    • A
      few more showers will occur during the weekend     
    • Other
      showers will occur at times through next week, but the resulting rainfall will be erratic and light
  • West-central
    Africa rainfall is expected to slowly ramp up over the next two weeks
    • Ivory
      Coast and Ghana need rain after two months of mostly dry conditions
      • Rain
        expected over the next two weeks will not be uniformly distributed, but it will prime the atmosphere with moisture needed to generate more generalized areas of rain later in September
      • Some
        benefit will come from the next two weeks of showers, but greater rain will be needed
  • Europe
    weather will remain drier biased for France and central Germany through Saturday, but after that rain is expected to bring relief to the dry region
    • The
      moisture will be good for future autumn planting of winter crops, but may disrupt crop maturation and harvest progress early this autumn
  • Central
    through northeastern Europe will be wettest this week with periods of rain continuing to maintain moisture abundance and a good environment for crop development
    • A
      few days of drying will occur during the weekend and early next week only to be followed by waves of new rain later next week
    • The
      environment will be good for late season crops, but may interfere with crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Southeast
    Europe will be dry biased over the coming ten days to two weeks
    • Areas
      from central and eastern Ukraine to central and eastern Bulgaria will see very little rainfall and temperatures will be warmer than usual
      • Crop
        stress will continue high in this region with a further decline in summer crop yields and quality
        • Faster
          than usual crop maturation and harvest progress is expected this year as long as rainfall stays limited
  • Rain
    fell from southern France through northern Italy to Czech Republic during the weekend with excessive rain and flooding in parts of northern Italy
    • Rain
      totals varied from 2.00 to more than 5.00 inches in the Po River Valley with nearly 10.00 inches in the Swiss Alps
    • Rain
      also fell in the U.K., northern France, Belgium and Netherlands
    • Drying
      occurred in many other areas with drought conditions most serious in southeastern Europe
    • Warmer
      than usual temperatures occurred from southern Spain through Italy to most of the Balkan Countries and southwestern Ukraine where highest temperatures were in the 90s Fahrenheit
      • Highs
        in the 50s and 60s occurred in the U.K. while in the 60s and 70s elsewhere in northern Europe
  • Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms occurred across western Russia and in a part of the New Lands during the weekend while Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region was relatively dry with mild to warm temperatures
    • Highest
      temperatures were in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit across the northern CIS while in the 80s and lower 90s farther to the south
  • Russia’s
    New Lands will continue to experience some brief periods of drizzle and light rain over the coming week to ten days
    • Most
      of the precipitation will be very light, but there is some concern over unharvested small grain and sunseed quality
    • Dry
      and warm weather is needed to induce the best maturation and harvest conditions
  • A
    favorable mix of weather will occur over the next ten days in other western CIS locations, but net drying will continue in central and eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan
    • Temperatures
      will be very warm to hot in this region as well
  • Typhoon
    Maysak threatens to damage rice, corn, soybeans and sugarbeets from South Korea to northeastern China Wednesday into Friday of this week
    • Torrential
      rain and flooding are expected along with excessive wind and a notable storm surge in South Korea
    • Maysak
      was located 144 miles south of Okinawa, Japan at 24.7 north, 127.3 east at 0900 GMT today moving northerly at 21 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 115 mph with tropical storm force wind occurring out 200 miles
      • Typhoon
        force wind was occurring out 55 miles from the storm center
  • A
    new tropical depression is forming south of Japan and it will be closely monitored this week as it moves northward and possibly runs across central Japan’s rice and citrus areas as a tropical storm.
  • Tropical
    Disturbance in far eastern Caribbean Sea may become a tropical depression storm in the next few days while moving west northwest toward Central America
  • A
    tropical depression may evolve early this week off the southeastern U.S. coast and will move away from land, but could contribute to some coastal rainfall early this week
  • Two
    other tropical waves are expected in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean this week and need to be closely monitored for further development
  • Interior
    east-central China will experience net drying this week and weekend while showers and thunderstorms slowly return to the southern provinces where some locally heavy rain is possible
    • A
      mix of rain and sunshine will return in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain next week
    • Temperatures
      will be warm except in the south where readings will be near average
    • China’s
      late summer crops will need more drying later this month to promote maturation and improved harvest progress, but the rain will be good in winter wheat production areas where planting occurs in late September and October
  • Xinjiang
    China will continue to experience alternating periods of mild and warm weather with a few showers northeast
    • Warm
      and dry weather is desirable to help speed cotton and other crops toward maturity after a slightly cooler than usual summer
  • Flooding
    on China’s Yangtze River will continue for a while as the region continues to drain surplus water from behind the Three Gorges Dam

 

  • Freezing
    temperatures in eastern Australia have mostly ended
    • Damage
      occurred to some winter crops last week, although Queensland is the only state that will suffer some yield decline because of the combined impact of freezes and drought
  • Other
    Australia crops are rated favorably, although rain is needed from Western Australia into South Australia and these areas may dry down for while
  • Australia
    rainfall in the coming week to ten days will continue limited to coastal areas with Victoria wettest along with southwestern Western Australia
    • Greater
      rain is needed prior to reproduction
      • Queensland
        winter crops should be reproducing in the next two weeks and rain is needed
  • India
    weekend rainfall was greatest in Madhya Pradesh, northern Maharashtra and Gujarat
    • Rainfall
      ranged from 2.75 to more than 6.00 inches resulting in some local flooding
      • A
        little more than 8.00 inches occurred in southern Gujarat
    • Rain
      also fell in other northern and west-central India locations as well as the far eastern states, but rain amounts in most of those crop areas was not heavy enough to present serious issues for crops
    • Net
      drying occurred in southern and interior eastern parts of India
    • Temperatures
      were near to slightly above average
  • India’s
    greatest rainfall this week will be today from Gujarat and Sindh, Pakistan into southwestern Rajasthan
    • Rainfall
      will range from 1.00 to 3.00 inches with local totals to more than 5.00 inches
    • Some
      heavy rain is also expected early this week in northern Pakistan, far southern and extreme eastern India where 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches will result
    • Net
      drying will occur elsewhere
    • Rain
      will fall in central, southern and eastern India later this week through next week while the monsoon pattern slowly begins to withdraw from the north of India
      • The
        drier bias will be welcome especially to cotton harvesting which has experienced a threat to quality because of recent rain
  • Pakistan
    cotton, rice and sugarcane in Sindh will receive more rain early this week and then monsoonal precipitation will begin to withdraw in the balance of the coming two weeks improving cotton maturation and harvest progress
    • Irrigated
      rice, sugarcane and other crops will become more dependent upon irrigation water for late season crop development as seasonal drying begins
  • A
    good mix of rain and sunshine is expected in mainland areas of Southeast Asia over the coming ten days
  • Indonesia
    rainfall continues erratic
    • Sumatra
      has been steadily drying recently and needs significant rain
    • Java
      is also quite dry, but some of that dryness is seasonal
    • Rainfall
      over the next ten days will continue erratic, but at least some rain will fall in each production area at one time or another
    • Rain
      is needed most in parts of Sumatra and western Java
  • Philippines
    weather has been trending a little drier recently and this trend may continue for the coming week to ten days
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • Mainland
    Southeast Asia is getting enough rain to support summer crops, but there is a growing concern over off season water supply since summer rainfall has not been as great as needed to restore those supplies
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be erratically distributed for a while and temperatures will be a little cooler biased
    • Below-average
      rainfall is expected in North Island and eastern parts of South Island
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +8.97 today and it will continue positive and will likely rise additionally early this week

Source:
World Weather

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
AUG. 31:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
  • Statcan
    data for Canada wheat, barley, soy, canola and durum production
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Holiday:
    U.K., Malaysia

TUESDAY,
SEPT. 1:

  • Australia
    commodity index
  • U.S.
    Purdue agriculture sentiment
  • USDA
    soybean crush, 3pm
  • U.S.
    corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
  • FO
    Licht’s virtual Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo (Sept. 1-3)
  • Cotton
    outlook update by International Cotton Advisory Committee in Washington
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for August 1-31

WEDNESDAY,
SEPT. 2:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • UkrAgroConsult’s
    Black Sea Grain Conference in Kyiv (Sept. 2-3)
  • Russia’s
    Agriculture Ministry holds annual conference to discuss production and the industry
  • HOLIDAY:
    Vietnam

THURSDAY,
SEPT. 3:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand commodity price

FRIDAY,
SEPT. 4:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • CNGOIC’s
    monthly supply-demand report on Chinese feed grains and oilseeds
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • StatsCan’s
    data on Canada wheat, barley, soy, canola and durum stocks
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

StatsCan
July estimates of production of principal field crops

                   
2018    2019    2020    2018-2019    2019-2020

 

                    
thousands of tons            % change

Total wheat      
32201   32348   35740         0.5          10.5

Durum
wheat        5745    4977    6926       -13.4          39.2

Spring
wheat      23942   25670   25935         7.2           1.0

Winter
wheat       2514    1701    2879       -32.4          69.3

Barley            
8380   10383   10546        23.9           1.6

Canary
seed         158     175     150        11.0         -14.4

Canola           
20594   19477   19403        -5.4          -0.4

Chick
peas          311     252     205       -19.2         -18.6

Corn
for grain    13885   13404   13928        -3.5           3.9

Dry
beans           341     317     328        -7.1           3.5

Dry
field peas     3581    4237    4996        18.3          17.9

Fall
Rye            226     326     402        44.1          23.6

Flaxseed           
492     486     553        -1.3          13.8

Lentils           
2092    2242    2805         7.2          25.1

Mustard
seed        174     135      91       -22.5         -32.3

Oats              
3436    4237    4498        23.3           6.1

Soybeans          
7417    6045    5962       -18.5          -1.4

Sunflower
seed       57      63      95         9.8          51.5

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat      
516,131     versus  400000-700000           range

Corn         
402,216     versus  800000-1100000         range

Soybeans  
804,591     versus  650000-1000000         range