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Trump postponed trade talks with China. USD was down sharply and been on the decline for about 8 straight weeks.  USDA 24-hour: Private exporters sold 195,000 of corn to China for 2020-21 delivery and 130,000 tons of corn to unknown for 2020-21.  Private exporters
also sold 130,000 of soybeans to unknown for 2020-21 delivery.  Pro Farmer for the second day reported very good pod counts and corn yields. 




  • Argentina
    is still quite dry, but has a chance for rain during mid-week next week
    • Drought
      threatens the nation’s wheat crop and possibly early season corn planting later next month
  • Southern
    Brazil has been receiving rain and will get more periodically into the coming weekend
    • Wheat
      quality might be at some risk because of wet conditions, but early corn planting will benefit greatly from the moisture
    • Cold
      air in southern Brazil this weekend and early next week could induce some frost and light freezes which may have some impact on reproducing and filling winter wheat
  • Tropical
    Wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula and will not likely develop much in the next two days, but could become a tropical depression before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula
    • World
      Weather, Inc. believes this system will move across the peninsula and then into northeastern Mexico and/or far southern Texas early next week


  • Tropical
    wave 900 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the tropical Atlantic ocean will race toward the northern Leeward Islands the remainder of this week and will develop into a tropical depression within the next couple of days
    • This
      system may be influenced by the Greater Antilles which may limit its intensity for a while
    • The
      system may eventually threaten Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico region
  • Eastern
    and southern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region, southeastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria will continue too dry for at least another ten days, despite a few sporadic showers
  • Russia’s
    central and eastern New Lands will receive rain the remainder of this week and into early next week, but drying may evolve shortly after that and the change will be welcome
    • Some
      areas in the region are becoming a little too wet and need to dry down to protect small grain and sunseed quality
  • China
    will continue to experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the coming week, but the last days of August are starting to look drier for east-central parts of the nation and the change will be welcome
    • Most
      of the nation east of Tibet has saturated soil and flooding has been an issue at times throughout the summer
  • Xinjiang
    China will continue to experience milder than usual conditions at times over the next week and some rain will fall periodically in the northeast
    • Recent
      temperatures have been milder than usual which may be reducing some of the degree day accumulations for cotton and other crops
  • India
    will receive some heavy rain in central parts of the nation during the coming week to ten days
    • Flooding
      is expected in Madhya Pradesh, southern Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat as well as in a few northern Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Odisha locations
      • Crop
        damage is possible
  • Australia
    rainfall in the coming week to ten days will be limited to southernmost parts of the nation with Victoria wettest
    • Dryness
      remains a concern for Queensland and South Australia with some wheat and barley reproduction expected early next month in southern Queensland making rain very important
  • U.S.
    weather was quite dry Monday and temperatures were seasonable in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states
    • Temperatures
      continued excessively hot in the northwestern Plains and Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and southwestern desert region
  • U.S.
    weather will be wettest in the southeastern states for a while with daily scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
    • Rain
      in the Delta will be more restricted, but some showers are expected
    • Midwestern
      precipitation should be restricted for the next week to ten days
    • U.S.
      Plains rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days as well, although a few sporadic showers are expected periodically
    • West
      Texas will see a few showers, but no general soaking and temperatures will continue warm
    • Far
      western U.S. heat wave will continue into the weekend and then will be easing next week
    • Northern
      U.S. Plains and Canada’s central and southwestern Prairies will experience restricted rainfall and warm to hot temperatures
  • Excessive
    heat occurred in the northwestern U.S. Plains and Canada’s central and southwestern Prairies Monday
    • Afternoon
      highs were in the 90s to 103 degrees from southern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta into Montana and the southwestern Prairies
  • Tropical
    Storm Higos formed in the South China Sea Monday and was expected to move through southwestern Guangdong, China Tuesday and then to Yunnan late this week
    • The
      storm will produce very heavy rain and induce some flooding and strong wind possibly damaging some sugarcane, rice and other crops
  • Dryness
    in west-central Africa will prevail over the next ten days, although a few more showers and thunderstorms will occur infrequently
    • The
      precipitation will be welcome, but not likely enough to counter evaporation leaving an ongoing need for greater rain
    • Seasonal
      rains will return to this area late this month and more likely in September
      • The
        longer range outlook calls for abundant rain in these areas later this year
  • Europe
    weather over the next ten days will bring brief periods of rain to many areas, but net drying will continue in central through southern France, Spain, southern Portugal, the Italian Peninsula and eastern Bulgaria to southern and eastern Romania and Moldova
    • Crop
      moisture stress will continue in each of these areas until greater rain falls
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average over the next ten days
  • Western
    CIS crop areas will experience an erratic rainfall pattern over the next ten days resulting in areas of net drying and some pockets of significant rain
    • Drying
      in the western parts of the CIS will be good for early season crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Late
      season crops in the south will continue stressed, but good soil moisture in the north and west will support crops when rain is not falling
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • Southern
    Pakistan rainfall will be restricted over the next two weeks leaving rice, sugarcane and cotton dependent upon irrigation for normal crop development
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual
  • Greater
    rain is needed in parts of Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam, although very few areas are considered too dry
    • Rain
      is expected to fall periodically over these areas resulting in abundant soil moisture and some local flooding
  • Indonesia
    rainfall increased in central Sumatra Monday
    • Recent
      rain has been most significant in “portions” of Kalimantan and a few Malaysian locations while more limited in other areas
    • Weather
      over the next ten days will continue erratic, but at least some rain will fall in each production area at one time or another
  • Ontario
    and Quebec weather is mostly good with alternating periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • South
    Africa rain will continue periodically in the southwest over the next week, but most of it will be near the coast and it will not be frequent enough to seriously bolster topsoil moisture for long term crop use
    • Eastern
      winter wheat and barley areas still need a general rain to support dryland crops which represent 8% of the total crop in the region
    • Temperatures
      will be cooler than usual
  • Mexico
    precipitation in the coming week to ten days will be greatest in western and southern parts of the nation benefiting many corn, sorghum and dry bean production areas
    • Coffee,
      citrus, sugarcane and many fruit and vegetable crops will also benefit
    • Northeastern
      Mexico will be mostly dry
      • Some
        of the region is still drought stricken
  • Central
    America rainfall will be frequent enough to support all crop needs
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be above average this week except in southern parts of South Island where it will be lighter than usual
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +5.11 this morning and it will continue positive this week

World Weather Inc. 


Ag Calendar

August 19:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • ISO
    online conference on Sugar and Health
  • USDA
    total milk production

August 20:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Brazil
    Conab sugar, cane and ethanol production
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • China
    International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3pm

August 21:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • China
    International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit, day 2
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for August 1-20
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Bloomberg and FI



Building Permits Jul 1.495 Mln (est 1.326 Mln; prevR 1.258 Mln; prev 1.241 Mln)

Building Permits (M/M) Jul 18.8% (est 5.4%; prevR 3.5%; prev 2.1%)

Housing Starts Jul 1.496 Mln (est 1.245 Mln; prevR 1.220 Mln; prev 1.186 Mln)

Housing Starts (M/M) Jul 22.6% (est 5.0%; prevR 17.5%; prev 17.3%)




Export Developments

  • USDA
    24-hour:  Private exporters sold 195,000 of corn to China for 2020-21 delivery and 130,000 tons of corn to unknown for 2020-21. 






  • September
    corn is seen in a $3.15 and $3.45 range.  December $3.20-$3.65 range. 



  • Soybeans
    traded two-sided, ending lower on decent US production prospects.  US crop conditions dropped only 2 points last week.  Technical selling was noted.  Soybean meal lost ground today on product spreading, ending $2.10 lower basis Sep.  Soybean oil finished 28-38
    points higher on good US domestic demand and slowdown in Brazil’s crush. 

    oil spreads were under pressure as end users are having a hard time sourcing Q4 supplies and a pickup in interest for Q1.  We heard US producer soybean selling was not as robust as previously thought after prices rallied on Monday.  It might be possible producers
    are holding out to see if China buys more soybeans.  USDA reported 130,000 tons of soybeans to unknown.  This comes after w
    heard China on Monday bought at least one soybean cargo out of the PNW for shipment sometime in Oct or Nov.  They were shopping for US Gulf soybeans out of the Gulf but no confirmed trades were noted.  China was also looking around for April-August Brazilian
    soybeans yesterday and bought at least one Jan/Feb cargo. 
  • Egypt
    bought 11,000 tons of sunflower oil at $788/ton.  They have not paid that high of price for sunflower oil since January.  They passed on soybean oil.  Note the lowest offer for soybean oil was about $50-5/ton higher than what they paid in their latest August
    9 import tender for 64,500 tons (local tender). 
  • The
    morning run for the GFS model was little wetter for the second week of the US weather outlook but the European model remains on the dry side.
  • The
    Pro Farmer crop tour:
    • Day
      2…Nebraska – Mixed to mostly good results
    • Day
      1…Ohio – 1155.68 pods vs. 764.01 for 2019 and 1039.74 average
    • Day
      1…South Dakota – 1250.86 pods vs. 832.85 for 2019 and 919.04 average


Export Developments

  • USDA
    24-hour:  Private exporters sold 130,000 of soybeans to unknown for 2020-21 delivery.  

Egypt’s GASC bought 11,000 tons of sunflower oil at $788.00/ton C&F for Oct 25-Nov 20 shipment.  They were in for 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil.  Lowest offers were
$788.00 for sunflower oil and $789.50 for soybean oil.


2020 data show U.S. biodiesel production levels largely unchanged since 2019

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  • September
    soybeans are seen in a $8.80-$9.30 range.  November $8.80-$9.50.  
  • September
    soybean meal is seen in a $285 to $310 range.  December $285-$320.   
  • September
    soybean oil range is seen in a 30.00 to 33.50 range.  December 29.75-35.00 range.  





  • Japan
    seeks 117,063 tons of milling wheat on August 20. 
  • We
    head the Philippines and Taiwan are in for wheat. 
  • Results
    awaited: Algeria seeks at least 50,000 tons of milling wheat on August 18 for Sep shipment. 
  • Results
    awaited: Pakistan seeks 1.5 million tons of wheat on August 18. 
  • Turkey
    seeks 390,000 tons of red milling wheat and 110,000 tons of durum wheat on August 25.   They also seeks feed barley. 
    • Red
      wheat shipment period is between Sep 4 and Oct 10
    • Durum
      shipment period is between Sept. 15 and Oct. 10.
    • Feed
      barley shipment period is between Sept. 11 and Sept. 25.
  • Syria
    looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  • Syria
    seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from EU/Russia on Sept. 9 and 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia on Sept. 14.



Results awaited: Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery. 

South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 60,556 tons of rice from Vietnam and other origins, on Aug. 19, for arrival in South Korea between Dec. 31, 2020, and February 28, 2021.



  • Chicago
    September is seen in a $4.90-$5.35 range. December $5.00-$5.50 range. 
  • KC
    September; $4.15-$4.55 range. December $4.30-$4.75.  
  • MN
    September $4.90-$5.25 range.  December $5.05-$5.40.



Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366


AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


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