PDF Attached

 

Calls:

Corn
steady to 2 lower

Soybeans
steady 

Wheat
steady to 3 lower

 

US
corn and soybean crop conditions declined 2 points. Spring wheat improved by one. Large rally in CBOT ag commodities today.  US weather will be dry this week.  Under the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 130,000 tons of HRW wheat to unknown.  
Inspections and NOPA crush reports were supportive. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOT
MANY CHANGES DURING THE WEEKEND

 

  • U.S.
    weekend weather was wettest in the upper Midwest with some heavy rain in Minnesota where flooding continued after starting late last week
    • Net
      drying occurred across many other Midwestern locations
    • Rain
      was heavy in North Carolina and Virginia where some flooding resulted
    • Scattered
      showers of lighter intensity occurred in the Delta and southeastern states keeping the southeastern states abundantly moist and only offering pockets of improved soil moisture in the Delta
    • Scattered
      showers in western Texas helped to bring down afternoon temperatures during the weekend, but temperatures were hot late last week
      • Rainfall
        was mostly less than 0.50 inch, but highest temperatures slipped to the 90s after being well over 100 Friday
    • Most
      of the central through northwestern U.S. Plains and far western states were dry

 

  • Excessive
    heat occurred in the western United States during the weekend
    • Extreme
      highs to 123 degrees Fahrenheit occurred at Needles, California
    • Highs
      of 100 to 106 as far north as Washington and Oregon
    • Arizona
      cotton areas experienced extreme highs ranged from 108 to 116 degrees stressing crops and inducing a huge demand for irrigation
    • The
      extreme temperatures also impacted northwestern Mexico
    • Temperatures
      were seasonable in the eastern parts of the nation

 

  • U.S.
    outlook does not support much rain in the heart of the Midwest, the Great Plains or far western U.S. this week
    • Scattered
      showers will occur in the northern Midwest and throughout the southeastern states
    • Net
      drying is expected elsewhere, although there will be a few periodic showers
    • Crop
      stress will be on the rise in areas that already have limited soil moisture including parts of Iowa and surrounding areas and the Delta into the Tennessee River Basin
      • Crop
        production potentials will not change in this coming week, but the topsoil will dry down making rain next week more important for late season crops
    • Weekend
      rain in Ohio and southeastern Michigan will buy those areas a little time before turning too dry since soil moisture was already rated poorly Friday before the rain fell

 

  • U.S.
    weather outlook next week will bring a couple of frontal systems into the Midwest offering some additional cooling after a brief period of warming and some rain
    • Net
      drying will continue in the Plains and southwestern Corn Belt through much of next week
    • Southwest
      monsoon flow will remain restricted
    • Increased
      tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the next two weeks may contribute to less rain in the Plains and heart of the Midwest
    • Warm
      weather will prevail in the central and western U.S. through next week

 

  • The
    Tropics and subtropics should be closely monitored
    • We
      are moving into the a more favored period for tropical cyclone development; the most favored period for storm development through the end of this month
      • Tropical
        Storm Josephine dissipated during the weekend
      • Tropical
        Storm Kyle dissipated during the weekend
      • Tropical
        disturbances are present in the tropical Atlantic, but they may be slow to evolve into tropical cyclones
    • Tropical
      disturbance will be possible in the Gulf of Mexico next week after evolving in the Caribbean Sea later this week – this system may impact Texas early next week, but it is too soon to have much confidence
    • A
      second tropical disturbance may move across the Lesser Antilles late this week and into the weekend and could develop further, but it may interact with the greater Antilles keeping its intensity variable
      • This
        system could be headed for the eastern Gulf of Mexico for mid- to late-week next week, but confidence is extremely low

 

  • West
    Texas will experience a few showers and thunderstorms erratically over the next two weeks
    • Resulting
      rainfall will not be enough to seriously change soil or crop conditions, but may hold down temperatures periodically

 

  • U.S.
    northwestern Plains and southwestern Canada’s Prairies will not receive much rain for the next week favoring harvest progress for early season crops, but stressing some of the late season crops
    • Rain
      is possible next week that might offer some temporary reprieve from this week’s drying
    • Manitoba
      crop weather will be best for late season crops
    • Temporary
      dry and warm weather in Alberta will be welcome for many crop areas that have been too wet this summer in the west and north
    • Alberta
      will receive rain in the west and north this weekend and possibly again during mid-week next week keeping the west and north wet

 

  • Eastern
    and southern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region will continue dry or mostly dry through much of the next ten days
    • Crop
      moisture stress will continue to rise threatening unirrigated, corn, soybeans, sunseed, potatoes, sugarbeets and other crops

 

  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands will continue to receive periods of rain this week and a few areas may get a little too wet raising some concern over sunseed and spring wheat quality

 

  • Weekend
    rainfall in France impacted much of the nation with 0.10 to 0.40 inch and a few local totals over 1.00 inch
    • Most
      of the greatest rainfall was in the far eastern parts of the nation

 

  • Rain
    elsewhere in Europe during the weekend was greatest from southeastern Germany to Romania, Serbia, Bosnia and a few areas in western Bulgaria
    • From
      0.35 to 1.35 inches, but several areas reported up to 2.25 inches and there a few totals that reached up near and over 5.00 inches in Macedonia and Montenegro
    • Weekend
      temperatures were a little warmer than usual with highs in the upper 70s and 80s north and 80s and lower to a few middle 90s south

 

  • Some
    rain fell in the dry areas of Ghana and Ivory Coast during the weekend, but coverage was poor in Ivory coast
    • Rainfall
      varied from 0.25 to 0.40 inch in Ghana while one location in western coffee and cocoa areas in Ivory Coast received up to 3.00 inches
      • Many
        other areas in Ivory Coast were dry

 

  • Dryness
    in west-central Africa will prevail over the next ten days, although a few more showers and thunderstorms will occur infrequently
    • The
      precipitation will be welcome, but not likely enough to counter evaporation leaving an ongoing need for greater rain
    • Seasonal
      rains will return to this area late this month and more likely in September
      • The
        longer-range outlook calls for abundant rain in these areas later this year

 

  • Europe
    weather over the next ten days will bring brief periods of rain to many areas, but net drying will continue in central through southern France, Spain, southern Portugal, the Italian Peninsula and eastern Bulgaria to southern and eastern Romania and Moldova
    • Crop
      moisture stress will continue in each of these areas until greater rain falls
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average over the next ten days

 

  • Western
    CIS crop areas will experience an erratic rainfall pattern over the next ten days resulting in areas of net drying and some pockets of significant rain
    • Drying
      in the western parts of the CIS will be good for early season crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Late
      season crops in the south will continue stressed, but good soil moisture in the north and west will support crops when rain is not falling
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable

 

  • India
    weather over the next ten days to two weeks will be abundantly wet with bouts of flooding from Chhattisgarh, Odisha and parts of northern Telangana through Madhya Pradesh to parts of southern Rajasthan and portions of Gujarat
    • Some
      crop damage will be an increasing risk as time moves along
    • Temperatures
      will be a little milder than usual in the wettest areas keeping evaporation rates low
    • Interior
      southern India will experience net drying

 

  • Southern
    Pakistan rainfall will be restricted over the next two weeks leaving rice, sugarcane and cotton dependent upon irrigation for normal crop development
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual

 

  • Weekend
    rain in India was locally heavy in eastern Madhya Pradesh where nearly 10.00 inches resulted in one location. Rainfall of 1.00 to 4.00 inches occurred in Rajasthan except in the northwest where no more than 0.92 inch resulted
    • Other
      areas of moderate rain occurred in Telangana and near the west coast from Goa through western Maharashtra to southern Gujarat
    • Dry
      weather occurred in the far south and in pockets of Bihar, Jharkhand, northern Madhya Pradesh and from Haryana into Punjab
    • Himachal
      Pradesh also received some heavy rainfall of more than 8.00 inches resulting in some local flooding

 

  • Pakistan
    was mostly dry and very warm during the weekend

 

  • Southeastern
    Manitoba received some welcome rain briefly Friday into Saturday morning
    • Rain
      totals ranged up to 1.35 inches with one location getting nearly 2.50 inches
    • Mostly
      dry weather occurred in many other areas in the Prairies and temperatures were seasonable

 

  • Rain
    fell across Thailand, Laos and some immediate neighboring areas during the weekend resulting in good soil moisture and crop conditions

 

  • Greater
    rain is needed in parts of Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam, although very few areas are considered too dry
    • Rain
      is expected to fall periodically over these areas resulting in abundant soil moisture and some local flooding

 

  • Indonesia
    rainfall was erratic and very light during the weekend in Sumatra, western Java and Sulawesi
    • Rain
      was more significant in “portions” of Kalimantan and a few Malaysian locations, but more rain is needed in parts of the region
    • Weather
      over the next ten days will continue erratic, but at least some rain will fall in each production area at one time or another

 

  • China
    rainfall during the weekend was most significant in central Sichuan where flooding resulted after 27.75 inches of rain resulted
    • Heavy
      rain also fell in western Shandong were 4.00 to 12.91 inches resulted
      • Some
        flooding occurred in western Shandong and northwestern parts of North Korea with more than 8.00 inches resulting in North Korea
    • Rainfall
      of 1.00 to more than 7.00 inches occurred in many other areas from southern Gansu and Shaanxi to southern Hebei and the remainder of Shandong
      • Some
        areas in Heilongjiang and southern Liaoning also reported rain with amounts to 0.83 inch except in eastern Heilongjiang where a local total of 5.51 inches resulted
    • Heavy
      rain also continued in Guangxi where another 2.25 to more than 7.70 inches resulted during the weekend after significant rain fell late last week
    • Net
      drying occurred in the Yangtze River Basin where sunny and warm weather prevailed

 

  • China
    will experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the coming week to ten days
    • Most
      areas will be impacted with rain at one time or another
    • Rainfall
      will be lightest and least frequent in the lower Yangtze River Basin and interior southeastern parts of the nation

 

  • Xinjiang,
    China weather during the weekend included scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which were locally heavy in the northeast
    • Northeastern
      areas were wettest and coolest
      • Highest
        temperatures in the northeast were limited to the 70s and lower 80s
    • Dry
      and warm weather occurred in the west with highs in the lower 90s and lows were in the 60s

 

  • Tropical
    Disturbance near the northern tip of Luzon Island has potential to develop into a tropical cyclone this week
    • Movement
      will be west northwesterly toward southwestern Guangdong and southern Guangxi with landfall possible Wednesday and Thursday
      • Heavy
        rain is expected from these areas to the Vietnam/Guangxi, China border in the second half of this week

 

  • Australia
    reported rain in many crop areas during the Friday through Sunday period, although amounts were mostly light
    • The
      moisture was still beneficial for most crops
    • Rainfall
      ranged from 0.05 to 0.62 inch in New South Wales, up to 0.43 inch in South Australia, 0.05 to 0.88 inch in southeastern Queensland while 0.35 to 0.88 inch resulted in New South Wales and amounts to 0.79 inch in Victoria
    • Temperatures
      were mild to warm

 

  • Australia’s
    weather over the next ten days will not include much rain outside of coastal areas
    • Victoria
      will be wettest with some 1.00 to 3.00 inches expected by Sunday
    • Rain
      elsewhere will be less than 0.30 inch
    • Queensland
      will be dry and rain will be limited in interior crop areas
    • Temperatures
      will be close to normal in the west and south and a little cooler than usual in the southeastern corner of the nation

 

  • Argentina
    will be mostly dry for the next week to 8 or 9 days
    • Scattered
      showers are expected in the last days of August, but the resulting precipitation will not be significant enough to change drought status

 

  • Argentina
    weather during the weekend was dry and mild to warm with highs in the 50s and 60s south and in the 60s and 70s north followed by morning frost and freezes

 

  • Southern
    Brazil received rain during the weekend from southern and central Mato Grosso do Sul to southern Sao Paulo, Parana to northern Rio Grande do Sul
    • Rain
      amounts varied from 1.00 to 4.00 inches in Parana and 0.35 to 1.50 inches in most other areas
    • Temperatures
      were seasonably mild in far southern Brazil and warm elsewhere
      • Extreme
        highs in the 90s to 102 degrees Fahrenheit occurred in most of central through northern parts of Brazil

 

  • Brazil
    rain this workweek will be greatest from southern Mato Grosso do Sul to Parana where 2.00 to more than 6.00 inches of rain will result by Friday
    • Follow
      up rain is expected next week, but it will be much lighter
    • Some
      flooding will occur this week which may threaten some of the winter wheat crop
    • Lighter
      rain will occur farther north in Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro this week and next week with the only concern being for coffee in a few of the mountainous areas where a little flowering is possible
    • Early
      season corn planting will increase following this rainy period
    • Much
      cooler than usual temperatures will occur this week from southern Brazil and Paraguay into eastern and central Argentina
      • Next
        week will continue cool in Argentina

 

  • Ontario
    and Quebec weather is mostly good with alternating periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable

 

  • South
    Africa rain will continue periodically in the southwest over the next week, but most of it will be near the coast and it will not be frequent enough to seriously bolster topsoil moisture for long term crop use
    • Eastern
      winter wheat and barley areas still need a general rain to support dryland crops which represent 8% of the total crop in the region
    • Temperatures
      will be cooler than usual

 

  • Mexico
    precipitation in the coming week to ten days will be greatest in western and southern parts of the nation benefiting many corn, sorghum and dry bean production areas
    • Coffee,
      citrus, sugarcane and many fruit and vegetable crops will also benefit
    • Northeastern
      Mexico will be mostly dry
      • Some
        of the region is still drought stricken

 

  • Central
    America rainfall will be frequent enough to support all crop needs

 

  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be above average this week except in southern parts of South Island where it will be lighter than usual

 

  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +4.70 this morning and it will continue positive this week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
August 17:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
  • U.S.
    monthly green coffee stockpile data from Green Coffee Association
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia

TUESDAY,
August 18:

  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction

WEDNESDAY,
August 19:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • ISO
    online conference on Sugar and Health
  • USDA
    total milk production

THURSDAY,
August 20:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Brazil
    Conab sugar, cane and ethanol production
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • China
    International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Malaysia
  • EARNINGS:
    Cherkizovo

FRIDAY,
August 21:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • China
    International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit, day 2
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for August 1-20
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat      
461,699     versus  400000-600000           range

Corn         
1,036,985  versus  800000-1100000         range

Soybeans  
785,075     versus  425000-800000           range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 13, 2020

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                            
      CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      08/13/2020  08/06/2020  08/15/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY         
1,996           0           0        2,461        2,938 

CORN       
1,036,985   1,288,883     510,334   40,312,783   46,168,508 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          317           48 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0           0          800          299 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM       
83,934     109,012      56,802    4,723,598    1,999,455 

SOYBEANS     
785,075     785,568   1,158,755   40,950,167   43,485,255  

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
461,699     476,698     564,632    5,625,441    5,521,334 

Total      
2,369,689   2,660,161   2,290,523   91,615,567   97,177,837 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.