FI Evening Grain Comments 08/07/20

PDF Attached

 

Under
the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 456,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.  For Monday we look for US crop conditions to improve one point
for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat. 

 

 

 

WEATHER
OF GREATEST INTERST

• Kudos
  go to the European weather forecast model run from late last week for its prediction of excessive rain in northern China and the Korean Peninsula
• Seven
  day totals ranged from 5.00 to 10.00 inches from Shaanxi to Hebei and Shandong, China with local totals to 16.50 inches in Shandong and east-central Hebei
• Rainfall
  in North Korea and northern South Korea has ranged from 5.00 to 10.00 inches with local totals to 20.31 inches as of this morning
  
• Another
  4.00 to 12.00 inches will occur throughout the Korean Peninsula over the next several days worsening flood conditions
• China’s
  heavy rain event is mostly over, although lingering rain in Shandong and northern Jiangsu is expected today
• The
  world’s tropical regions have quieted down for now, but World Weather, Inc. sees the Atlantic Ocean Basin coming alive again in another 10-12 days
• The
  western and eastern Pacific Oceans have been rather quiet with tropical cyclones this season especially the west with only a few storms since January which is well below average
• U.S.
  weather will be dominated by a “dirty” ridge of high pressure this weekend and next week allowing showers and thunderstorms to scatter over and under it while temperatures trend a little warmer
• The
  end result will be good for crops
• Some
  rain will reach into Iowa’s dry region and neighboring areas of the northwestern Corn Belt offering some short-term relief from dryness
• Another
  dry region in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin will get scattered showers in the coming week that will be beneficial for crops even though significant relief to long term dryness is not very likely
• A
  good mix of rain and sunshine will impact other areas in the Midwest and southeastern states over the next ten days
• Net
  drying will occur in much of the high Plains region, despite some scattered showers in the next ten days due to warm temperatures
• U.S.
  week two weather needs to be closely monitored for a possible bout of faster drying and warmer temperatures
• Some
  of the longer range forecast models have been suggesting limited southwest monsoon moisture and a reduction in Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing northward into the Midwest during the August 14-20 period while a stronger ridge of high pressure builds over a part
  of the Plains and Midwest
• This
  is a recipe for faster drying and some folks may be caught off guard by the faster drying rates
• However,
  subsoil moisture will carry most crops through the drier and warmer period without much production threat except in the drier areas noted above
  
• West
  Texas crop areas will experience a few showers infrequently over the next two weeks and temperatures will be a little warmer than usual with extreme highs of 100 to 106 at times over the coming week
• U.S.
  northwestern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s Prairies will continue to experience poor rainfall distributions and warm temperature biases for a while resulting in low soil moisture and some crop stress
• The
  environment will be good for early season crop maturation and harvesting
• U.S.
  Delta weather will receive some restricted rainfall and warm temperatures resulting in ongoing low soil moisture and the same will be true for the Tennessee River Basin
  
• Canada’s
  Prairies will cool down briefly this weekend and then warm up again next week
• Additional
  cooling is expected near mid-month
• Showers
  will be a little too erratic and often light to have a big impact on crops or field conditions
• Net
  drying is expected in many areas
• August
  14-20 may trend wetter in southeastern parts of the Prairies
• Ontario
  and Quebec weather is mostly good with alternating periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks
• Recent
  rain bolstered topsoil moisture and removed concern over dryness
• Net
  drying is expected for a while in this coming week, but crop conditions will remain very good
• Xinjiang
  China experienced warm temperatures and most dry conditions in key cotton production areas Wednesday while the northeast part of the province was a little milder than usual and reported a couple of showers
• Xinjiang
  weather is not likely to change much in the next week or two
• Alternating
  periods of rain and sunshine will impact much of eastern China over the next two weeks resulting in favorable crop development
• Net
  drying is expected in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin during the coming week with some rain possible in the August 16-20 period
• Flooding
  in the northern and lower Yellow River Basin will subside in this coming week as alternating periods of rain and sunshine continue
• Most
  crops in eastern China will either be improving or experience status quo conditions in the next ten days
• Any
  flooding will be confined to Shandong and northern Jiangsu today and in a few random other locations during the remainder of the next week to ten days
• Rain
  is needed in Ivory Coast and Ghana where amounts over the past 30 days were well below average
• The
  region is not likely to see much moisture of significance for a while (at least two weeks)
• Temperatures
  may be a little cooler than usual as well
• Rain
  in Europe recently has been restricted to mostly eastern crop areas
• Temperatures
  are warming up in western parts of the continent and will be very warm to hot for a while this weekend before shifting to the central parts of the continent next wee
• France,
  the United Kingdom, Belgium and a few neighboring areas will experience limited rainfall through the weekend and very warm to hot temperatures and then a chance for rain will evolve
• Highest
  temperatures through Monday will be in the 80s and 90s with readings over 90 as far north as southern England and as far east as Germany
• Rain
  next week in these western European crop areas will vary from 0.50 to 2.50 inches with western France and southern parts of the U.K. wettest
  
• Portions
  of eastern Russia’s New Lands are still a little too dry and not likely to see much relief into early next week, but rain prospects are improving for later next week
• Rain
  is expected in the Ural Mountains region periodically in the next couple of weeks and some of that rain may be heavy at times over the next five to seven days
• The
  moisture will be good for immature spring wheat and sunseed, but early maturing crops may find the wet biased conditions a threat to grain quality
• Dryness
  in the eastern New Lands will maintain some stress and downward pressure on spring wheat and sunseed yields in some of the driest areas
• Rain
  is advertised in a part of this dry region next week and if it verifies late season crop improvements will be possible
• Production
  losses in the eastern New Lands should not be dramatic because it was not persistently hot and dryness was rarely at a critical level, but enough stress occurred to raise a little concern over production for a part of the region
• Dry
  weather is also expected in Ukraine a many areas southeast into Russia’s Southern Region and parts of western Kazakhstan during the next two weeks
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall is expected to continue erratic with a need for greater rain in parts of Indonesia and Malaysia
• Much
  of Indonesia and Malaysia were dry Thursday and rainfall will continue erratic and sometimes notably less than usual into next week
• Recent
  rain in eastern Thailand, Laos and northern Vietnam improved crop and field conditions after poor rainfall earlier this summer, but the region has begun to dry down again
• Greater
  rain is needed in western and southern Thailand
• Flooding
  rain is expected in western and southern Myanmar over the next couple of weeks
• Flooding
  is also expected along India’s west coast and in a few random locations in central and eastern India during the next ten days
• Northwestern
  India (mostly northwestern Rajasthan) will continue too dry for the next ten days along with parts of southern Pakistan
• Irrigated
  crops will remain in favorable condition, but significant rain is needed for the dryland crop
• Southern
  India will also experience an erratic rainfall pattern for a while and greater rain would be welcome
• Recent
  rain in interior central and northern India has dropped below average in recent weeks
• A
  boost in rainfall is needed and it may be a little slow in coming
• Most
  crop conditions are still rated favorably, but getting a boost in rainfall later this month will be very important
• Australia’s
  rainfall outlook remains very good with much of the nation’s wheat, barley and canola to get timely rainfall in the next ten days support improved crop establishment prior to the more aggressive growth season beginning in late August and September
• Argentina’s
  drought stricken wheat areas will continue dry for a while with little chance for change in Cordoba or Santa Fe which are two important wheat production areas.
  
• Buenos
  Aires wheat conditions are still rated favorably along with some in southeastern Santa Fe, Entre Rios and a few areas in La Pampa
• Southern
  Brazil will receive rain next week and it will be good for winter wheat
• Most
  of the precipitation will fall in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana, Paraguay and southern Mato Grosso do Sul leaving areas to the north a little dry
• Rain
  will soon be needed for early season corn planting and emergence and for improving wheat production potentials
• Dry
  weather is expected over this coming week in most of Brazil except coastal areas from Espirito Santo to Bahia where rain is expected periodicall
• Mexico
  precipitation in the coming week to ten days will be greatest in western and southern parts of the nation benefiting many corn, sorghum and dry bean production areas
• Coffee,
  citrus, sugarcane and many fruit and vegetable crops will also benefit
• Northeastern
  Mexico will be mostly dry
• Some
  of the region is drought stricken
• Central
  America rainfall will increase later this week and become more significant next week
• New
  Zealand rainfall will be below average during the coming week, but August 16-20 is expected to trend much wetter
• Southern
  Oscillation Index was +5.04 this morning and it will continue to rise over the next few days

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
August 10:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
• ISO
  webinar on Covid-19/macro outlook for sugar
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on July end-stockpiles, production, exports
• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for August 1-10
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Singapore

TUESDAY,
August 11:

• Brazil
  Conab releases area, production and yield data for corn, soybeans
• EARNINGS:
  Wilmar

WEDNESDAY,
August 12:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
• China
  CASDE monthly crop supply and demand report
• Vietnam
  data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in July
• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• U.S.
  soybean, corn acreage, noon
• EARNINGS:
  BRF, Marfrig
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

THURSDAY,
August 13:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• EARNINGS:
  JBS, Olam

FRIDAY,
August 14:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• EARNINGS:
  Golden Agri-Resources

SATURDAY,
August 15:

• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for Aug 1-15 from AmSpec

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

 

 

 

 

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn             
-172,820    -29,540    209,085        993    -62,257     36,037

Soybeans           
44,219    -17,942    141,433     12,432   -187,971     17,978

Soymeal           
-20,985     -1,521     85,798      8,687    -96,907        199

Soyoil             
48,333     10,784     85,831      1,982   -154,167    -16,210

CBOT
wheat           1,178       -520     89,060      8,524    -83,337     -5,815

KCBT
wheat         -25,811     -6,786     49,369      1,310    -25,166      5,004

MGEX
wheat         -22,000       -875      2,365         52     14,119      1,385

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat        -46,633     -8,181    140,794      9,886    -94,384        574

 

Live
cattle         38,179      4,556     83,657        965   -130,215     -4,133

Feeder
cattle        6,612      1,160      4,933        725     -5,223       -624

Lean
hogs           13,571      2,850     46,625      1,219    -60,886      1,694

Source:
CFTC, Reuters and FI

 

 

Macros

·        
US Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Jul: 1763K (est 1480K; prevR 4791K; prev 4800K)

·        
US Unemployment Rate Jul: 10.2% (est 10.6%; prev 11.1%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Jul: 0.2% (est -0.5%; prevR -1.3%; prev -1.2%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Jul: 4.8% (est 4.2%; prev 5.0%)

·        
US Change In Private Payrolls Jul: 1462K (est 1200K; prevR 4737K; prev 4767K)

·        
US Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Jul: 26K (est 255K; prevR 357K; prev 356K)

·        
US Gvt Payrolls: 301K (prevR 54K; prev 33K)

·        
US Average Weekly Hourly All Employees Jul: 34.5 (est 34.4; prev 34.5)

·        
US Labour Force Participation Rate Jul: 61.4% (est 61.8%; prev 61.5%)

·        
US Underemployment Rate Jul: 16.5% (prev 18.0%)

 

·        
US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Jun F: -1.4% (est -2.0%; prev -2.0%)

–
Wholesale Trade Sales Jun: 8.8% (est 5.0%; prev R 5.7%)

 

·        
Canadian Net Employment Change Jul: 418.5K (est 380K; prev 952.9K)

·        
Canadian Unemployment Rate Jul: 10.9% (est 11.0%; prev 12.3%)

·        
Canadian Full Time Employment Change Jul: 73.2K (prev 488.1K)

·        
Canadian Part Time Employment Change Jul: 345.3K (prev 464.8K)

·        
Canadian Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees (Y/Y) Jul: 5.7% (est 5.4 %; prev 6.8%)

·        
Canadian Participation Rate Jul: 64.3% (est 64.5%; prev 63.8%)

 

Corn.

• Corn
  prices started the day lower off the bat on fund selling.  September corn futures hit a fresh contract low during the session but the December and March failed to test their respected low. 
  
• December
  corn fell 1.9 percent and is down five consecutive weeks.
• Traders
  are looking for USDA to report an abundant of corn supply on August 12. 
• USD
  was up 67 by the time the modified session closed, bearish for all agriculture commodities.  WTI was down 63 cents as of 1:20 PM CT as well.  Adding to the negative sentiment were lower US equity markets. 
  
• Today
  was day one of the “Goldman Roll.”
• US
  corn basis firmed by 2 cents at Davenport, Iowa.  Basis was 1 cent weaker at an ethanol plant in Council Bluffs, Iowa. 
  
• Traders
  are looking for about 150 million bushel increase in new-crop US corn ending stocks and 170 million bu increase in 2020 production from July (180.4 yield). 
  

We
look for USDA to increase to 2.300 billion bushels when reported by USDA on August 12 from current 2.150 billion bushels, up from 1.775 billion for 2019-20.  US corn new-crop comments are running at their highest level since at least 2002-03, from our analysis. 
They actually could be at a record.

• China
  corn futures traded lower on Friday and at one point were head for their largest weekly decline since December 2018.  China has been scrambling to find alternative feedgrains to replace expensive corn.  They are sourcing feed wheat for animal use. 
  
• FranceAgriMer
  reported as of August 3, the corn crop rating declined to 74% against 77% in the previous week, following a three point decline the previous week.  They compare to 60 percent a year ago. 
  
• Reuters:
  “The Renewable Fuels Association spent $339,676 toward lobbying efforts during the second quarter, according to a U.S. Senate database that tracks lobbying disclosures. That was down 12% from the same time last year and 4% from the prior quarter.”

 

Corn
Export Developments

• None
  reported

 

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Updated
8/3/20

• September
  corn is seen in a $3.00 and $3.25 range.  December lows could reach $2.95 (Updated 8/3).  The US is staring down at a large crop. 
  

 

Soybean
complex.

• CBOT
  Sep and Nov soybean futures fell for the fourth consecutive day to their lowest since June 30 despite USDA reporting the largest single day 24-hour soybean sale to China since July 22.  We didn’t get the two-sided trade as we expected.  Rather a very strong
  USD, fund selling, and focus on large North American supply prompted a lower trade out of the 8:30 AM CT start gate.  This morning USDA announced 465,000 tons of soybeans to China for 2020-21 delivery.  Chinese demand picked up this week from last week, buying
  more than 40 cargoes from both United States and Brazil, but supply overshadowed demand.  Other news was light. 
  
• Soybean
  oil failed to bounce higher amid Chinese vegetable oil demand.  Today’s action reflected profit taking and lower energy markets.  Prices remain relatively high compared to the carnage in soybean meal.  We believe a reversal in the product spread will factor
  corn futures direction.  Sep corn touched a new contract low during the Friday session.  A reversal in US corn futures could provide a bullish undertone in meal, as the two are bound by animal feed use.  
  

• Soybean
  meal was dragged lower, to fresh contract lows, throughout much of the day but the September position paired much of the intraday loss on unwinding of product spreads.  Also, US soybean meal basis firmed by about $1.00 at selected locations across IL, IN and
  OH. 
• Soybeans
  were down 2.6 percent for the week, meal down 3.9% and oil up to a nearly 6-month high. 
  
• US
  soybean basis fell by 1 cent at Savanna, Illinois.
• The
  BRL traded as high as 5.4379 as of 1 PM CT, highest since June 1. 
• At
  least 12 soybean cargoes traded to China late Thursday.  10-12 from the US (Oct-Nov) and at least 2 from Brazil (March). 
  
• China
  sold 58,997 tons of soybeans from reserves on Friday, all that was offered, at an average price of 3,128 yuan per ton. 
  
• Traders
  are looking for about 100 million bushel increase in new-crop US soybean ending stocks and 123 million bu increase in 2020 production from July (51.3 yield). 
  

• China
  cash crush margins as Friday, using our calculation, were 129 cents per bushel (134 previous), lowest since mid-June, and compares to 150 cents a week ago and 79 cents around this time last year.
  

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 456,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year. 
  

• Results
  awaited:  South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) seeks up to 13,000 tons of rapeseed meal from India and a range of other animal feed meals (palm kernel expeller meal, copra meal and corn gluten feed), for arrival around Oct. 20.

 

BRL

Source:
Reuters

 

 

Updated
8/3/20

• September
  soybeans are seen in a $8.65-$9.05 range.
• September
  soybean meal is seen in a $280 to $295 range. 
• September
  soybean oil range is seen in a 29.00 to 32.50 range.

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures prices traded sharply lower on Friday but late session end user buying and bottom picking paired some losses.  The charts look ugly for KC and MN as there is little technical analysis, when looking at the medium term, to trade with.  KC and MN
  hit new contract lows, even in the back months, on prospects for large supplies for four out of the five top global exporting nations.  US wheat production is expected to increase slightly when USDA updates their production estimate on August 12, but output
  will remain well below a multi decade average.  US 2020-21 export commitments are highest since 2014-15, but total shipments for the 2020-21 season are projected to fall short to rival Black Sea region.  Also, Argentina and Canada wheat exports are also expected
  to be near record.  Australia’s export projection of 16.5 million tons could get upward revised 1-2 million tons in the August USDA update, if production gets a 2-3-million-ton boost. 
  
• Chicago
  wheat dropped 6.6 percent over the last week. 
• Global
  import tender business was a little on the lighter side this week, in our opinion.  Pakistan did float a 1.5-million-ton import tender.   
  
• We
  expect China to buy additional high protein wheat, including US origin.  Looking at price action over the last two weeks for KC and MN versus Chicago wheat,
  we think a spread opportunity for US high protein wheat over Chicago SRW wheat might be worth a look. 
  
• Traders
  are looking for about 5 million bushel increase in new-crop US wheat ending stocks and 9 million bu increase in all-wheat production. 
  
• The
  World Food Program plans to buy and import wheat for Lebanese flour and bakeries amid Beirut explosion. 
  
• Ukraine
  harvested 23.1 million tons of wheat as of August 6. 
• France’s
  wheat harvest is nearly complete.  Now that the crop has been made, traders will be watching the German wheat harvest. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat was down 0.75 euro at 178.25.  

 

US
Wheat Associates

“The
HRW harvest continues to advance with steady to improving quality. The SRW harvest is complete and sampling collection is winding down with a much-improved crop over 2019. Hot, dry weather is pushing the SW crop forward; initial data indicate very good grade
and non-grade factors. HRS and northern durum conditions have improved with warm, dry weather pushing crop development.”

Full
report: 

https://www.uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/HR_2020-8-7-1.pdf 

 

Export
Developments.

• Pakistan
  seeks 1.5 million tons of wheat on August 18. 
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on August 12 for Nov-Dec shipment. 
  
• Syria
  looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Reuters: Thai rates little changed at $463-$485 per ton. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery. 

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 60,556 tons of rice from Vietnam and other origins, on Aug. 19, for arrival in South Korea between Dec. 31, 2020, and February 28, 2021.

 

Updated
8/5/20

• Chicago
  September is seen in a $4.95-$5.40 range.
• KC
  September; $4.10-$4.55 range. 
• MN
  September $4.90-$5.40 range.