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US soybean complex main balances attached.  Dec Corn, Dec HRW, and Dec HRS contracts all hit new contract lows today.  All major CBOT ag markets ended lower.  The US high pressure ridge for the US is now projected to be short lived. 



Weather and Crop Progress

MARKET WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  U.S. weather is expected to be mostly favorable. Dryness will remain a concern in the northwestern Corn Belt from parts of South Dakota and Nebraska into central and northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. Other pockets in the Midwest have some dryness, but they not as significant as this region. The potential for significant relief in these drier areas is somewhat low, although a few showers and thunderstorms are expected periodically.

            Weather conditions in India and China have not changed much recently and little change was expected for a while. Crop conditions will remain mostly good for corn and soybeans in both countries as well as for some groundnuts, rice, cotton and sorghum in India. China may have lost a little production this year from too much rain in southern parts of the nation’s grain and oilseed production region.

            Net drying will occur in parts of Canada’s Prairies for a while this week into next week which may stress a few crops like those of the northwestern Plains. Crop conditions are improving in Mexico and still look good for Australia with significant rain coming soon to that nation.

            Early season corn planting will advance quickly in Brazil, but rain is needed to improve soil moisture for emergence and establishment. Dryness and some excessive heat will be a concern for summer coarse grain and oilseed crops in parts of western and southeastern Europe as well as eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region. Dryness will also continue in some of the sunseed areas of Russia’s eastern New Lands.

            Some concern over net drying will also continue in oil palm production areas of Indonesia.

            Overall, weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality with a bearish bias remaining


MARKET WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Most of the damage done to this year’s spring cereals has already been done and no further change of great significance is expected unless the harvest season turns wet.  Some lower production is expected from Russia and Europe due to dryness in the New Lands and in various areas in northwestern and far southeastern Europe. China’s spring wheat has performed well. Australia’s winter crops will benefit greatly from rain coming over the next two weeks and some ongoing dryness in Canada’s Prairies may further stress late filling crops. Argentina drought will not change over the next two weeks.

            Overall, weather today will likely leave a neutral influence on market mentality.


7 Day Precipitation Outlook


Bloomberg Ag Calendar

TUESDAY, August 4:

  • U.S. Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
  • New Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Australia commodity index

WEDNESDAY, August 5:

  • EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • China’s CNGOIC to release supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans
  • French Agriculture ministry’s 2020 grain estimates
  • Malaysia’s palm oil export data for August 1-5
  • New Zealand Commodity Price

THURSDAY, August 6:

  • FAO World Food Price Index
  • USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

FRIDAY, August 7:

  • China’s foreign trade data for July, including imports of soybeans and meat
  • ICE Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions

Source: Bloomberg and FI



  • US soybeans, corn and wheat area on the defensive on large crop production prospects.  The US corn crop could end up being a bin buster this year. Figure of speech since the US should have enough storage but some US region might temporarily see a problem for storage.   
  • Funds sold an estimated net 33,000 corn contracts. 
  • The September corn contract traded at a lifetime low, reaching $3.0825/bu and it settled there.  September corn was $4.04 a year ago.  December also hit a contract low and that market could be headed down into the $3.05-$3.10 area by late this week. 
  • We are hearing corn yields in one part of Louisiana were coming in around 255 bushels per acre.  The state yield was 165 for 2019. 
  • USD turned around to trade 17 lower by 2 PM CT and WTI rebounded to end 68 cents higher. 
  • UGA: Ukraine 2020-21 corn estimate was raised to 38.9 million tons, a record, versus 36.8MMT earlier.  Exports may reach 33MMT tons vs 31m tons expected earlier.
  • The U.S. DOE completed their review from refiners request for RFA biofuel exemptions and issued recommendations that will be sent to the EPA for a 90-day review period.  Renewable Fuels Association said there are 52 “gap year” exemption requests for 2011 to 2018 and another 28 requests for 2019 and 2020 that have yet to be ruled on by the EPA.  We are hearing recommendations include partial exemptions. 
  • Heat and dryness remain a concern for parts of Ukraine and Romania. 
  • IA, NE, and OH need additional rain. 
  • IEG is due out Wednesday with US and world crop reports.  StoneX: US corn yield and production: 182.4/15.320 billion; soybeans: 54.2/4.496 billion.  Soybean and Corn Advisory: corn 180.0, up 1.5 previous; soybeans 52.0, up 1.0 previously.   FI is using 181.0. 
  • Economist predicts revenue for corn farmers will hit 14-year low  https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/08/04/economist-predicts-revenue-for-corn-farmers-will-hit-14-year-low/
  • Bloomberg: “Corn starch plants in China, the second-biggest consumer of the grain, are running at about 60% of capacity, according to SHZQ Futures, adding some have halted or scaled back output on costs. The government is expected to release feed-grade wheat, said the China National Grain and Oils Information Center.”
  • A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 6,000 at 952,000 barrels (922-970 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 163,000 barrels to 20.435 million.


Corn Export Developments

  • None reported



Updated 8/3/20

  • September corn is seen in a $3.00 and $3.25 range.  December lows could reach $2.95 (Updated 8/3).  The US is staring down at a large crop. 


Soybean complex.

  • We heard China bought at least 8 cargoes of US and Brazilian soybeans on Monday.  4 traded out of the Gulf for Oct/Nov shipment and 4-6 out of Brazil for Mar/Apr. 
  • Soybean and Corn Advisory sees Argentina’s 2021-22 soybean crop at 52MMT, 2 million above this year.  USDA is at 53.5 MMT for 2020-21 and 50 for 2019-20. 
  • AgroConsult estimated the Brazil 2020-21 Brazil soybean crop at 132.6 million tons (2 estimates today at that figure), up from their forecast for 2019-20 of 124.7 million tons. 
  • StoneX sees a 132.6-million-ton Brazil soybean crop next season, up from 122.8 million tons last season. 
  • We are using 51.5 bushels per acre for the August US soybean yield.  Yesterday StoneX issued a huge US soybean yield of 54.2 bushels per acre and production of 4.496 billion bushels. 
  • UGA lowered their view of the Ukraine rapeseed crop to 2.93MMT from 3.33 million previously. 


Oilseeds Export Developments


Source: Reuters and FI


Updated 8/3/20

  • September soybeans are seen in a $8.65-$9.05 range.
  • September soybean meal is seen in a $280 to $295 range. 
  • September soybean oil range is seen in a 29.00 to 32.50 range.



  • US wheat futures ended lower again on harvest pressure, large production prospects for Russia and Australia (now forecast 1-3 MMT above USDA’s 26 MMT estimate), and fund selling.  KC and Minn contacts hit fresh lows.  Chicago wheat was down most with the Sep and Dec both down 12.75 cents. 
  • Funds sold an estimated net 11,000 Chicago wheat contracts. 
  • After the close Egypt announced they are in for wheat for Sep 11-20 and/or Sep 21-30 shipment. 
  • Managed money are near flat for CBOT Chicago wheat. 
  • Russia’s AgMin: wheat yields rose to 3.66 tons/hectare as of Aug. 3, up 0.05 tons/hectare from a year earlier.  Yesterday IKAR increased their estimate for the 2020-21 Russian wheat crop to 79.5MMT from 78 million previously. 
  • Romania’s wheat crop could fall 40 percent to 5.5-5.6 million tons, according to the AgMin. 
  • Paris December wheat was down 0.50 euros at 180.25.  
  • Germany’s statistics office estimated the 2020 wheat crop down 12% from 2019 to about 20.23 million tons.  This is below 22.46 million tons projected by the cooperatives association. 


Export Developments.

  • Egypt announced they are in for wheat for Sep 11-20 and/or Sep 21-30 shipment. 
  • Ethiopia got 5 offers for the 400,000 tons of wheat import tender.  It was scheduled to close July 24. 
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on August 12 for Nov-Dec shipment.  
  • Thailand seeks 192,600 tons of wheat and 107,700 tons of Australian (only) feed barley on Wed.
  • Japan is in for 130,295 tons of food wheat on August 6. 

  • Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley on Aug 5 for arrival by end of Jan. 
  • Syria looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 



·         Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery. 


Updated 8/3/20

  • Chicago September is seen in a $5.00-$5.40 range.
  • KC September; $4.30-$4.55 range. 
  • MN September $4.95-$5.40 range.


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366


AIM: fi_treilly

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Skype: fi.treilly


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