PDF Attached

 

Private
exporters sales of 135,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Poland during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

Not
much change to the fundamentals other than another increase in global export demand. Corn closed higher on late fund buying. EIA ethanol figures were supportive for corn. US wheat was lower but losses were limited from late buying. MN closed higher, Chicago
lower and KC lower. The soybean complex ended lower, in part to a reversal in SBO from sharply lower WTI crude oil and higher USD. The US weather outlook is largely unchanged
.
The far northwestern Corn Belt may see rain this weekend and ECB pockets of rain will fall over the next few days.

 

 

Weather

Map

Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH AROUND THE WORLD

  • Northwestern
    U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt continues to dry out with short to very short top and subsoil moisture
    • Rain
      is needed and the longer the region stays dry the more serious the potential impact on yields might become
  • GFS
    and ECMWF models differ over rainfall in the western Corn and Soybean Belt, including the northwest, for this weekend into next week
    • GFS
      model suggests weekend rainfall of 0.20 to 0.75 inch and a few amounts to 1.00 inch
    • ECMWF
      model suggests 0.75 to more than 2.00 inch of rain
      • If
        the ECMWF is correct many of the stressed crops in the northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt will get sufficient relief to turn around crop conditions – at least for a little while and that might help slow potential yield declines
      • If
        the GFS model is correct the amount of improvement to crop and field conditions will not be great and worry over long term production will be quick to resume
    • World
      Weather, Inc. expects some rain in the western Corn Belt and some partial relief from this week’s heat and dryness will result, but the amount of rain will not be great enough to fix the long term outlook which may include additional stress for westernmost
      crops
  • U.S.
    high pressure ridge is weak and moves around enough during the next two weeks to prevent serious drying and extreme weather from evolving in any particular area for very long
    • The
      mix should prove to be good for production, although greater rain will still be needed in the west
  • Central
    and eastern U.S. Midwest crop conditions are still rated quite favorably in the majority of the region and some of the high yields there may help counter the lower yields possible in the far western Corn Belt
  • West
    and northern Texas rain potentials are increasing for early to mid-week next week
    • The
      precipitation would likely come a little late for cotton, sorghum and corn after months of hot, dry, weather
    • Rain
      potentials are not very great and significant follow up moisture will be needed to seriously change the situation and not much of that is expected
  • Crops
    in the Carolinas are becoming too dry again with crop moisture stress expanding
    • Meaningful
      relief is unlikely until the second week of the outlook
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will see less oppressive heat for a while, but rainfall will be minimal
    • Hotter
      conditions may return near mid-month
  • Southwestern
    Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains are drying out and stressing late season crops
    • Production
      cuts are possible for late season canola, corn, soybeans and flax as well as some sunseed
  • Northern
    parts of Canada’s Prairies received some welcome rain Tuesday soil conditions are rated well from northern and central Alberta to northern Saskatchewan and in many areas across Manitoba.
  • Ontario
    and Quebec crop conditions remain favorably rated with a good mix of weather expected over the next couple of weeks
  • No
    tropical cyclones or potential for tropical cyclones are present in the Atlantic Ocean Basin; including the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea for the next five days
  • Tropical
    Storm Frank dissipated in the eastern Pacific Ocean and Tropical Depression Georgette is expected to do the same in the next few days
    • A
      new disturbance is forming off the west coast of Central America and it has potential to become a tropical cyclone later this week
  • No
    tropical cyclones were present in the western Pacific or Indian Oceans today, but a disturbance was noted near the southern coast of China that may briefly evolve into a tropical cyclone before moving inland to eastern Guangdong or southern Fujian late this
    week and into the weekend
  • Eastern
    Ukraine and neighboring areas of Russia will receive rain over the next several days bolstering topsoil moisture for improved summer crop development
  • Net
    drying is expected in Russia’s New Lands where temperatures may also be a little warmer biased, but crop conditions should remain favorably rated
    • A
      boost in rainfall is still needed in eastern parts of Russia’s Southern Region, western Kazakhstan and the lower Volga River Basin, although the situation is not critical
  • Europe
    weather will continue drier than usual through the next week to ten days, despite a weak cool front and some showers expected Thursday into Friday from France to Poland
    • Some
      brief showers will also occur in southeastern Europe’s dry region next week, but the precipitation will be light and sporadic
    • A
      general boost in rainfall is needed in both western and southeastern Europe, but the precipitation noted above will fail to bring a serious change to any location and crop moisture stress will continue
    • Some
      increase in precipitation may occur in western Europe near mid-month
  • Europe
    temperatures will be quite warm relative to normal over the coming week in central and southern crop areas with highs in the 90s and a few extremes over 100 Fahrenheit expected
    • Temperatures
      next week will be warmer than usual in Western Europe and in particular from Spain through France to Germany and the U.K.  while more seasonably warm to the east
  • The
    bottom line for Europe remains stressful for most unirrigated crops from France and the U.K. into Germany, as well as the Iberian Peninsula and the Balkan Countries. Dryness has been most persistent and threatening to production from Hungary into the lower
    Danube River Basin and in parts of France and relief in the next couple of weeks is unlikely to be significant enough to make a difference to production potentials.
  • Argentina’s
    drought stricken western wheat and barley areas will have a new chance for rain late this weekend and into early next week
    • Early
      indications suggest 0.10 to 0.60 inch of moisture will result with locally more, but confidence is low for now
  • Southern
    Brazil weather will continue favorably moist for winter crops
  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha cotton harvest is advancing well due to dry and warm weather
  • Brazil’s
    coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas continue mostly dry, but the harvest season has been good because of limited precipitation
    • A
      few showers will occur Sunday into Tuesday, but resulting rainfall should be light and most of it will occur in Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul
    • There
      is no threat of frost or freezes in the next ten days
  • Eastern
    China’s weather in the next ten days will be drier than usual in the interior southeast and favorably to excessively wet from the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain into northeastern China
  • Xinjiang,
    China will see a good mix of weather over the next two weeks maintaining favorable crop development and normal yield potentials
  • India’s
    monsoonal rainfall is expected to continue widespread across the nation during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and most getting sufficient rain to bolster soil moisture and/or induce flooding
    • Some
      central areas may become too wet, but the precipitation will occur with sufficient breaks in this coming week to prevent serious flooding from occurring
    • Worry
      over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand dryness will continue even though timely rain is expected
      • These
        three states and immediate neighboring areas received well below normal precipitation earlier this summer and have moisture deficits still lingering
        • Greater
          rain is needed in these areas but may be slow in coming.
    • Next
      week’s monsoon low that moves from the Bay of Bengal to Gujarat will produce flooding rain from Odisha into Maharashtra and southern Madhya Pradesh
    • Nationwide
      rainfall is still expected to be above normal through mid-August and additional relief should occur to the dry areas of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but the amounts will need to be closely monitored. Cotton, groundnut and soybean areas of northwestern India should
      experience mostly good weather for crop improvements after flooding rain earlier this month
  • Sumatra,
    Indonesia rainfall continues a little too erratic and greater moisture is still needed in some areas, despite a little rain earlier this week
    • Greater
      rain is expected to slowly evolve over the next two weeks
  • All
    other Southeast Asian nations will experience an abundance of rainfall during the next few weeks resulting in some flooding in the Philippines and the Maritime provinces
  • Australia
    weather in the coming ten days will be favorable for most winter crops
    • A
      good mix of rain and sunshine is expected that will favor well established crops prior to spring growth
  • South
    Korea rice areas are still dealing with drought, despite some rain that fell recently.
    • Some
      additional rain is expected over the next couple of weeks
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall is increasing and will be greatest in central and western Ethiopia, but Uganda and Kenya will get some much-needed improved rainfall
    • Tanzania
      is normally dry at this time of year and it should be that way for the next few of weeks
  • West-central
    Africa rainfall has been and will continue sufficient to support coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton development normally
    • Some
      greater rain would still be welcome in the drier areas of Ivory Coast and Ghana
    • Seasonal
      rains are shifting northward leading to some drying in southern areas throughout west-central Africa
    • Cotton
      areas are expecting frequent rainfall in the next couple of weeks
  • South
    Africa’s crop moisture situation is favorable for winter crop establishment, although some additional rain might be welcome
    • Restricted
      rainfall is expected for a while, but the crop is rated better than usual
  • Central
    America rainfall will continue to be abundant to excessive and drying is needed
  • Mexico
    rain will be most abundant in the west and southern parts of the nation
  • Rain
    in the Greater Antilles will occur periodically, but no excessive amounts are likely
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was +8.90 and it will move higher over the next week
  • New
    Zealand weather is expected to be well mixed over the next two weeks
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Aug. 3:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price

Thursday,
Aug. 4:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • EARNINGS:
    Corteva

Friday,
Aug. 5:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s
    Aug. 1-5 palm oil export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Several
trade groups are updating US yield estimates.

-STONEX
SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2022 CORN PRODUCTION AT 14.417 BILLION BUSHELS, YIELD OF

176.0
BU/ACRE

-STONEX
SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2022 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AT 4.490 BILLION BUSHELS, YIELD OF 51.3 BU/ACRE (Reuters)

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisory

2022
U.S. Corn Yield Lowered 1.0 bu/ac to 174.0 bu/ac

2022
U.S. Soybean Yield Lowered 0.5 bu/ac to 50.5 bu/ac

 

Barchart
is at 51.4 & 177.8

FI
is at 49.9 & 177.6

 

 

Macros

US
DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 29-Jul: +4.467M (est -1.500M; prev -4.523M)


Distillate: -2.400M (est +1.000M; prev -0.784M)


Cushing: +926K (prev +751K)


Gasoline: +163K (est -1.500M; prev -3.304M)


Refinery Utilization: -1.2% (est 0.3%; prev 1.5%)

EIA:
US Crude Stocks In SPR Fell In Latest Week To Lowest Since May 1985

 

U.S.
Crude Oil Futures Settle At $90.66/BBL, Down $3.76, 3.98 PCT

 

OPEC+
Meeting Ends, Approves Output Increase Decision Of 100,000 Bpd – RTRS Source

OPEC+
To Hold Next Meeting Sept 5 – RTRS Source

 

US
S&P Global Services PMI Jul F: 47.3 (est 47.0; prev 47.0)


Composite PMI: 47.7 (prev 47.5)

US
ISM Services Index Jul: 56.7 (est 53.5; prev 55.3)

 

US
Factory Orders (M/M) Jun: 2.0% (est 1.2%; prev R 1.8%)


Factory Orders Ex-Transportation (M/M): 1.4% (prev R 1.8%)

US
Durable Goods Orders (M/M) Jun F: 2.0% (est 1.9%; prev 1.9%)


Durables Ex-Transp: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)


Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air: 0.7% (prev 0.5%)


Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air: 0.7% (prev 0.7%)

 

105
Counterparties Take $2.182 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.156 Tln, 105 Bids)

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures traded two-sided, ending higher. A lower traded in WTI crude oil and higher USD kept corn on the defensive for much of the day session after trading higher early in the morning. Corn saw a late session rally after
losses in wheat were trimmed from late fund buying. EIA’s ethanol update was seen supportive for corn. US equities were sharply higher.

·        
Funds today were even in corn. 

·        
Today’s weather forecast model run did offer an increase in rain across the northwestern US Corn and Soybean Belt this weekend. The European model run produces 0.75 to more than 2.50 inches in some of the dry region while the
GFS suggests 0.25 to 0.75 inch, according to World Weather Inc.

·        
An interesting stat flew around earlier today. The December 2021 highest price level was established on August 12th at $5.9450 for remaining of 2021.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 2 percent from a year ago and chicks placed up 2 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022 through July 30, 2022 for the United States were 5.63 billion.
Cumulative placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

 

EIA
reported a build in WTI crude oil inventories while the trade was looking for a draw. That sent WTI lower at 9:30 am CT, pressuring CBOT ag related markets.

 

US
DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 29-Jul: +4.467M (est -1.500M; prev -4.523M)


Distillate: -2.400M (est +1.000M; prev -0.784M)


Cushing: +926K (prev +751K)


Gasoline: +163K (est -1.500M; prev -3.304M)


Refinery Utilization: -1.2% (est 0.3%; prev 1.5%)

EIA:
US Crude Stocks In SPR Fell In Latest Week To Lowest Since May 1985

 

EIA’s
weekly petroleum status report was seen friendly for corn. Weekly ethanol production increased 22,000 barrels to 1.043 million, highest since July 1, and ethanol stocks were up 66,000 barrels to 23.394 million after a two-week decline.
A
Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be down 1,000 barrels from the previous week and stocks down 65,000 barrels. US gasoline demand fell 704,000 barrels to 8.541 million barrels from the previous week. The ethanol blend rate into finished
motor gasoline was 91.8%.

 

 

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG bought 55,000 tons of South Africa corn for Oct 16 through November 4 shipment, at an estimated 254.82 cents a bushel c&f over the Chicago December 2022 corn contract.

 

BA
Grains Exchange brief on Argentina fertilizer. 

BA
Grains Exchange on Argentina fertilizer suggests policy changes are needed to sustain a large corn planted area for 2022.

file:///C:/Users/treilly/Downloads/situacionmercadofertilizantes-bolsadecereales.pdf

 

Updated
7/28/22

September
corn is seen in a $5.25 and $6.50 range

December
corn is seen in a $5.00-$7.50 range

 

Soybeans

·        
US soybeans started higher from strength in soybean oil but after WTI turned lower mid-morning, soybeans sold off and ended up closing lower. Many parts of the ECB will see rain over the next few days and if they materialize,
soybeans should be in ok shape through mid-August.  Soybean meal was under pressure much of the day session until soybeans reversed to trade lower. Sharply lower WTI crude oil on larger than expected inventories pulled SBO lower.

·        
There is a gap in the September contract at $13.6050 & $1366.50. We expect this to be filled this week if the weather models turn favorable. 

·        
Funds today sold an estimated net 7,000 soybeans, sold 4,000 meal and sold 2,000 soybean meal contracts. 

·        
The India state of Telangana looks to expand the palm oil by a large 2 million acres over the next 4 years, potentially making it a top 5 palm oil producer. The goal is to become less reliant on palm oil imports. India produces
less than 300,000 tons of palm oil a year and depends on about two-thirds of its vegetable oil demand through imports of around 14 million tons. One official said after oilseed expansion over a 7-to-8-year period, Telangana could alone produce 4 million tons
of palm oil.

·        
There were again no CBOT deliveries posted Tuesday evening.

·        
Anec sees Brazil soybean exports during August at 5.1 million tons, down from 5.8MMT August 2021.

 

September
oil share saw a wide trading range.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks to sell a half a million tons of soybeans out of reserves on August 5.

·        
USDA reported private exporters sales of 135,000 tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Poland during the 2022-23 marketing year.
Last time USDA had soybean meal commitments on the books for Poland was the 2018-19 marketing year were 128,082 accumulated exports were recorded.

 

Updated
7/28/22

Soybeans
– September $13.00-$15.00

Soybeans
– November is seen in a $12.25-$16.00 range

Soybean
meal – September $400-$500

Soybean
oil – September wide range of 56.00-68.00.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures started higher on good global demand but turned sharply lower after fund long buying dried. Chicago and KC ended lower and MN higher. Algeria bought a larger amount of wheat than what was initially reported. Trade
was choppy today, and we expect prices to remain two-sided for the rest of the week.

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 5,000 Chicago wheat contracts.

·        
Paris September wheat was down 2.25 euros at 337.00 euros following lower Chicago wheat (before US wheat futures gave up some losses).

·        
A joint grain inspection team met in Turkey today. The 26,527-ton corn ship left Ukraine on Monday and was cleared late Wednesday.

·        
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy downplayed the first shipment of Ukrainian grain, citing several factors including economic problems.

·        
A Turkish official estimates 3 grain ships could leave daily from Ukraine.

·        
Ukraine’s 2022 grain harvest was estimated between 65 and 67 million tons, up from 60 million tons, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmygal.

·        
Romania’s 2022 wheat harvest is 96% complete and the AgMin said it will be large enough to cover domestic needs and ensure a surplus for exports. No details on the crop size was provided. In 2021 they produced 11.3 million tons
of wheat.

·        
The low water levels on the Rhine River are reducing loads and increasing shipping costs. Some ships can handle only up to 25 percent of capacity.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Tunisia bought 125,000 tons of soft wheat, at $389.86/ton c&f for Aug 25 through October 5 shipment. Tunisia also bought 50,000 tons of barley at $348.88/ton c&f.

·        
Iran’s GTC seeks 60,000 tons of milling wheat for Sep/Oct shipment.

·        
South Korea millers bought 50,000 tons of wheat from the US and 50,000 tons from Australia for September 16 through October 5 for the US and LH December for  Australia shipment. Reuters noted The US wheat included “21,695 tons
of soft white wheat of about 10.5% protein content bought at around $360 a ton, 1,115 tons of soft white wheat of 8.5% protein bought at around $361 a ton, 14,590 tons of hard red winter wheat of 11.5% protein bought at an estimated $395 a ton and 12,600 tons
of northern spring/dark northern spring wheat bought around $380 a ton. The Australian purchase involved 45,085 tons of Australian standard white Korean grade (ASWK) bought at about $369 a ton and 4,915 tons of Australian hard (AH) wheat bought at about $392
a ton.”

·        
Yesterday Algeria ended up buying an estimated 720,000 tons of wheat, mostly from France, at an estimated $384/ton for Sep and Oct shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on Aug 9 for Jan/Feb shipment.

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of feed barley at an estimated $336/ton c&f for FH January 2023 shipment. 

·        
Japan seeks 122,103 tons of milling wheat later this week for October loading.

·        
The Philippines seek 150,000 tons of milling wheat and 150,000 tons of feed barley on Thursday for OND shipment.

·        
Taiwan seeks 50,910 tons of US wheat on August 4 for shipment from the PNW between September 21 and October 5.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of rice, optional origin, for October 1 and December 31 delivery.

·        
Results awaited: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade seeks 92,100 tons of rice on Aug 3 for arrival in SK between Feb & Apr.

 

Updated
7/25/22

Chicago
– September $7.35 to $9.00 range, December $7.00-$10.50

KC
– September $7.45 to $9.50 range, December $7.00-$10.75

MN
– September $8.00‐$10.00, December $8.00-$11.50

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered
only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making
your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors
should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy
of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.