PDF Attached

 

USDA
reported 222,000 tons of meal to the Philippines and 114,300 tons of corn to Mexico.

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

Last
seven days

 

 

KEY
ISSUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK

  • At
    1100 EDT, Hurricane Isaias was located 365 miles south southeast of Great Abaco Island or 295 miles southeast of Nassau, Bahamas moving northwesterly at 16 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 mph
    • Hurricane
      force wind was occurring out 35 miles and tropical storm force wind was occurring out 205 miles
    • Some
      strengthening is expected over the next couple of days
    • The
      storm will reach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday after being over the southeastern Bahamas today
    • The
      storm will be near the east coast of Florida Saturday
      • Hurricane
        watch was issued for a part of the east-central Florida coast while tropical storm warnings are in effect for many other coastal areas
    • The
      storm will move along the Florida coast during the weekend, but its center should stay far enough off the coast to keep most of the damaging properties east of Florida citrus and sugarcane areas
      • Strong
        wind speeds will occur in some of the eastern parts of these crop areas, but damage is expected to be kept low
        • Some
          sugarcane lodging is possible, but damage should be low
        • A
          small amount of citrus fruit droppage is possible near the coast and minor limb breakage is possible
    • Landfall
      in the Carolinas is possible late Sunday into Monday with some crop damage expected
      • Damage
        to eastern corn and some soybean and cotton is possible in eastern North Carolina if the storm moves inland and projected
        • However,
          its fast forward movement and weakening could spare much of the region from much negative impact
  • Another
    tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is being monitored for possible development into a tropical cyclone next week, but the system should stay well east of North America
  • Monsoon
    depression in the northwestern South China Sea will bring heavy rain to northern Vietnam, Guangxi, Hainan and southwestern Guangdong, China this weekend
    ;
    rainfall of 4.00 to 12.00 inches and locally more is expected resulting in flooding
    • Little
      wind damage is expected, but some flooding could raise a little concern for rice and sugarcane
      • The
        area impacted will be low
  • Tropical
    wave will bring torrential rain to another part of southern China’s coast during the weekend and next week
    • This
      event will produce 5.00 to 12.00 inches of rain and local totals to 15.00 inches in southern Guangdong
      • Greater
        flooding and possible crop damage to rice and sugarcane may come from this event because of its very slow movement and constant rain
  • Flooding
    rain is expected from Shandong, northeastern Henan and immediate neighboring areas of China into the Korean Peninsula next week
    • Damage
      to rice and personal property may be greatest in North Korea, northern South Korea and a few areas in Shandong
      • This
        event occurs from multiple days of significant rain occurring mostly during the workweek next week
  • Yangtze
    River Basin will experience net drying during the coming ten days to two weeks
    ;
    totally dry weather is not expected, but flood water will recede and some of the higher ground will begin to dry down
    • Damage
      to crops from flooding in this region will not be reversible

 

  • Xinjiang,
    China is not likely to change much over the next week to ten days
    • Daily
      high temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s northeast and in the upper 80s and 90s elsewhere followed by lows in the 50s and 60s with a few lower 70s in the southwest
    • Rain
      is expected in northeastern areas only with Monday, Wednesday and Thursday wettest with daily rainfall of 0.05 to 0.50 inch
      • Dry
        conditions will prevail elsewhere
  • Increased
    monsoonal rainfall is expected in much of mainland areas of Southeast Asia during the coming week to ten days bringing flooding rain to parts of Laos and southern Myanmar as well as other areas in random locations in Thailand, Cambodi8a and northern Vietnam
    • Vietnam’s
      Central Highlands may continue to receive lighter than usual rainfall
  • Australia
    will receive some timely rainfall over the next ten days in virtually all of its wheat, barley and canola production areas
    • The
      moisture will start to improve field conditions in the very dry areas of South Australia and parts of Queensland
    • Ongoing
      favorable crop conditions will continue in Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria where the bulk of winter grain and oilseed is produced
  • Philippines
    rainfall has been improving recently and this trend will continue
  • France
    will continue drier biased over the next ten days to two weeks, although a few showers will impact a part of the nation
    • Resulting
      rainfall will not be enough to seriously bolster topsoil moisture or change production potentials
    • Hotter
      temperatures Thursday raised crop stress for many areas that have been too dry recently
    • Southern
      France continues to experience routinely occurring highs in the 90s and over 100 degree temperatures stressing corn and other crops
      • The
        heat in these areas will continue for a while with some temporary relief this weekend
  • Spain
    will continue hot with restricted rainfall for a while
  • Hot
    weather will return to western Europe in the second half of next week and into the following weekend
  • Recent
    hot weather in the southern Balkan Countries of Europe has occurred in the drought  stricken region and relief is unlikely in the area for a while
  • Eastern
    and southern Ukraine into Kazakhstan and parts of Russia’s Southern Region continues quite dry and warm to hot
    • Some
      showers are expected during the coming week to ten days, but relief from dryness is expected to be erratic and quite brier
      • A
        more general soaking of rain is needed
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands will continue to experience restricted rainfall over the next ten days
    • Temperatures
      will be trending warmer than usual late next week and into the week of August 10
  • Recent
    rain in western Russia New Lands has been good for improving spring wheat, sunseed and other crops
    • The
      greatest improvement in soil moisture has occurred in the Ural Mountains region and in a small part of Russia butting up against the northwestern Kazakhstan border
  • Other
    western CIS crop areas are favorably moist with little change likely
  • East-central
    and northeastern Europe will trend a little warmer in the coming week some showers expected to maintain favorable crop conditions
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall is expected to remain lighter than usual especially from the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra into western Kalimantan and western Java
  • South
    Africa will experience coastal showers over the next week to ten days leaving most interior crop areas dry
    • Rain
      is needed in eastern wheat production areas while crops in the west are favorably established
  • Argentina
    rain prospects were cut by today’s forecast model runs leaving Cordoba in the midst of significant winter drought
    • Santa
      Fe also continues drying out along with many other areas in northwestern parts of the nation
    • Buenos
      Aires will get some rain periodically keeping its wheat and barley crop favorably rated
  • Brazil
    weather is expected to be mostly dry for the coming ten days
    • Dryness
      will be good for early corn planting, but rain will soon be needed in some of the areas to be planted first
    • Sao
      Paulo, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul will need rain first, but there is still time for improvement
    • Wheat
      conditions are rated well
  • U.S.
    weather is still expected to be favorable over the next two weeks
    • First
      week conditions will be cooler than usual in the Midwest, northern Delta and interior southeastern states
    • Second
      week Midwest weather is expected to warmer and a little drier
      • Net
        drying is expected in the second and third weeks of August for many areas in the Midwest, despite some periodic showers  due to warmer (not hot) temperatures and more sporadic and light resulting rainfall
    • Crop
      conditions will remain favorable for much of the U.S. Midwest during the two weeks, although moisture stress will continue in parts of Iowa and in random locations across the northeastern Midwest
    • Iowa
      will continue to have opportunity for some rain periodically, but resulting amounts are probably going to continue a little light leaving moisture deficits in place and warmer weather coming in the second week of the outlook will accelerate drying rates between
      rain events to perpetuate the low soil moisture bias
  • West
    Texas crop weather will experience a few showers infrequently over the next two weeks and temperatures will be seasonably warm, but not excessively hot

 

  • U.S.
    northwestern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s Prairies will continue to experience poor rainfall distributions and warm temperatures biases for a while resulting in low soil moisture and some crop stress
  • U.S.
    Delta weather will be mixed with some areas wetter biased and others a little dry
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will see a mix of weather, but some crop damage may occur in eastern North Carolina early next week because of Hurricane Isaias
    • The
      storm will move fast, however, and it will be weakening when it arrives which should help to reduce the negative impact
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will be quite warm next week after cooling down briefly this weekend

o  
Additional cooling is expected near mid-month

  • Ontario
    and Quebec weather is mostly good, but pockets of dryness are expected over the next ten days
  • Mexico
    precipitation in the coming week will be greatest in western and southern parts of the nation benefiting many corn, sorghum and dry bean production areas
    • Coffee,
      citrus, sugarcane and many fruit and vegetable crops will also benefit
    • Northeastern
      Mexico will trend drier after rain fell beneficially from Tropical Depression Hanna early this week
  • Central
    America rainfall will be erratic this week and may trend heavier and more widespread next week
  • India’s
    weather is expected to remain favorable for summer crop development even though some of the rain amounts will be more erratic and lighter than usual
    • Northwestern
      Rajasthan will experience the least amount of rain over the next ten days as will central and southern Pakistan
    • Far
      southern India and a few locations from Odisha into southern Bangladesh will also receive well below average rainfall
  • Greater
    rain is needed in Ivory Coast and Ghana where rainfall this month has been well below average
    • The
      region is not likely to see much moisture of significance for a while
    • Temperatures
      may be a little cooler than usual
  • New
    Zealand rainfall over the next couple of weeks will be erratic and most often light with temperatures warmer than usual
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +4.05 this morning and the index is expected to slowly fall over the next few days

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
July 31:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for July 1-31 (tentative)
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia

MONDAY,
August 3:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee updates global outlook
  • ABAG,
    Brazil’s agri-business association, hosts annual conference
  • U.S.
    crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
  • USDA
    soybean crush, 3pm
  • U.S.
    DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for July 1-31 from AmSpec, SGS
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports for July
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    Canada

TUESDAY,
August 4:

  • U.S.
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Australia
    commodity index

WEDNESDAY,
August 5:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to release supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans
  • French
    Agriculture ministry’s 2020 grain estimates
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for August 1-5
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price

THURSDAY,
August 6:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

FRIDAY,
August 7:

  • China’s
    foreign trade data for July, including imports of soybeans and meat
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn             
-143,280     -5,510    208,092      2,100    -98,295     -2,958

Soybeans           
62,161    -13,649    129,002      7,123   -205,949      5,124

Soymeal           
-19,464      9,713     77,112        336    -97,106     -6,240

Soyoil             
37,549        652     83,848     -1,219   -137,957      4,578

CBOT
wheat           1,699      1,225     80,537     -7,397    -77,523      3,315

KCBT
wheat         -19,026       -867     48,059      2,236    -30,170     -2,034

MGEX
wheat         -21,125       -472      2,313        243     12,734        505

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat        -38,452       -114    130,909     -4,918    -94,959      1,786

 

Live
cattle         33,622      3,949     82,692     -1,793   -126,082     -3,764

Feeder
cattle        5,453        991      4,208         89     -4,599       -242

Lean
hogs           10,721        209     45,406        810    -62,580       -702

 

 

Macros

US
Personal Income Jun: -1.1% (est -0.6%; prev -4.2%)

US
Personal Spending Jun: 5.6% (est 5.2%; prev 8.2%)

US
Real Personal Spending Jun: 5.2% (est 5.0%; prev 8.1%)

US
Consumer spending jumps 5.6% in June, but the recovery already appears to be slowing – MW

Incomes
fall 1.1% as stimulus fades, fewer people return to work

US
PCE Deflator (M/M) Jun: 0.4% (est 0.4%; prev 0.1%)

US
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Jun: 0.8% (est 0.9%; prev 0.5%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Jun: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.2%; prev 0.1%)

US
PCE Core Deflator(Y/Y) Jun: 0.9% (est 1.0%; prev 1.0%)

US
Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Jul F: 72.5 (est 72.9; prev 73.2)


Conditions Jul F: 52.8 (est 85.5; prev 84.2)


Expectations Jul F: 65.9 (est 65.5; prev 66.2)


1-Year Inflation Jul F: 3.0% (prev 3.1%)


5-10 Year Inflation Jul F: 2.6% (prev 2.7%)

EIA:
US May Gasoline Demand Down 23.5% Or 2.213M Bpd Vs Last Year At 7.188M Bpd (Vs -37.4% In April)

       
US Crude Oil Production Fell 1.989M Bpd In May To 10.001M Bpd (Vs Revised 11.99M Bpd In April)

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 114,300 tons of corn to Mexico for 2020-21 shipment. 

 

 

 

Updated
7/20/
20

  • September
    corn is seen in a $3.10 and $3.35 range over the short term.  December lows could reach $3.10.  We can’t justify below $3.00 unless a shock in the September grain stocks report occurs, or China’s production gets upward revised by a large amount. 

 

Soybean
complex
.

·        
Soybean
s
rose to a three day high led by strength in soybean meal.  Bull spreading in soybean oil resumed, and the Aug/Sep spread ripped higher on the close (settled 44 Aug premium – see chart below).  Soybean oil registrations fell short of expectations.  December
soybean oil hit buy stops at 30.48. 

·        
November soybeans were up 10.25 cents for the month, or 1.2 percent. 

·        
Soybean meal started higher but ended lower after soybean oil made additional gains post the US EIA monthly biodiesel report (see below) and strength in South American soybean oil premiums, higher
by about $20/ton fob. 

·        
Cash sunflower oil prices were up nearly 5 percent on Friday. 

·        
First Notice Day deliveries for soybean oil were less than expected at 412 lots, meal were 24 and soybeans zero. 

·        
There is no threat of ridging for the US Midwest over the next ten days.  The ECB will see good rain over the next week while WCB will see some net drying. 

·        
A Reuters poll calls the June U.S. soybean crush to fall for a third straight month to 177.8 million bushels.  Bloomberg estimates are in the table below. 

·        
ICE canola hit a new contract high. 

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 150 cents per bushel (148 previous) and compares to 147 cents a week ago and 41 cents around this time last year.

·        
China soybean and soybean oil futures were higher. 

·        
Malaysia was on holiday. 

·        
ITS: Malaysian palm oil exports for the month of July were up 5.8 percent to 1.717 million tons from 1.622 million tons for June. 

 

BOQ/BOU
+50 late in the day

Source
DTN and FI

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 222,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for 2020-21 shipment. 

 

 

US
biodiesel update – bullish soybean oil. 

A
decline in alternative feedstocks use, such as restaurant grease, and lower imports of vegetable for industrial use, all for biodiesel production, had a profound impact on US soybean oil for biodiesel production, in large part to changes in consumption amid
Covid-19.  US production of biodiesel was 147 million gallons in May 2020, 4 million gallons higher than production in April 2020, but below our expectations. There were a total of 1,109 million pounds of feedstocks used to produce biodiesel in May 2020, up
from 1.070 billion during April and down from 1.178 billion for May 2019. All feedstock use came in below our expectations.  Soybean oil, on the other hand, came in well above our expectations, during May 2020 with 778 million pounds consumed, above 672 million
during April 2020 and above 659 million for May 2019.  This prompted us to increase our soybean oil for biodiesel use by 100 million pounds to 7.650 billion pounds, 250 million pounds above USDA July of 7.400 billion.  Look for USDA to raise their estimate
for soybean oil for biodiesel use by 200 million pounds on August 12, and lower food by the same amount.  We increased our domestic use for soybean oil by 60 million pounds to 22.300 billion, above USDA’s 21.950 billion estimate.  Our 2019-20 soybean oil carryout
is now 1.908 billion, below USDA July of 2.020 billion, a 112-million-pound difference. 

 

May
use of soybean oil for biodiesel represented 70.2 percent of total feedstock, highest percentage since December 2011.  The five-year average for soybean oil as a percent of total feedstock use is 53 percent. 

 

 

 

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Description automatically generated

 

 

 

Canada:
Biofuels Annual

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Biofuels%20Annual_Ottawa_Canada_06-19-2020