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Corn,
soybeans and wheat traded lower on good US crop ratings. 
Egypt
bought 470,000 tons of wheat.
Palm
futures are down 6 percent this week and 15 percent for the year.  The ringgit is at a 6-week high against the USD. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

 

  • U.S.
    crop weather will remain mostly good, but drying is expected in the coming week to ten days across northwestern parts of the Corn and Soybean Belt
    • Northwestern
      and central Iowa is already too dry along with parts of southeastern South Dakota and a few Minnesota locations
    • Rainfall
      will be greatest in the lower Midwest over the next week to ten days and that region will be plenty moist to support crop needs
    • Rainfall
      should increase in northwestern U.S. Corn Belt late in the first week of August and more likely in the second week
    • Temperatures
      will be non-threatening over the next two weeks

 

  • U.S.
    Southern Plains will continue to receive enough rainfall periodically to curb some of the recent heat and supplement irrigation (where available)
    • Crop
      and livestock stress will not be nearly as extreme as it was earlier this month anytime soon, although warming is expected in the second half of next week and into the following weekend

 

  • U.S.
    Delta weather will be favorably mixed with some of the driest areas getting some periodic rainfall to ease dryness, but more rain will be needed

 

  • U.S.
    southeastern states should start to dry down for a while late this week and especially during the weekend and early part of next week

 

  • Tropical
    disturbance east of the Leeward Islands in Atlantic Ocean will become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later this week and it will influence the Lesser Antilles and could threaten Puerto Rico before moving to the Bahamas this weekend
    • This
      system has potential to bring stormy conditions to the U.S. and possibly Florida, although it is too soon to be precise on the system’s intensity or precise path because it has not yet fully evolved

 

  • West
    Texas cotton areas will experience some welcome showers and that will help hold back some of the excessive heat of late
    • Crops
      in the region will experience some improvement

 

  • U.S.
    Northern Plains and much of Canada’s Prairies will experience limited rainfall and warm temperatures over the next week
    • Western
      Alberta may have another bout of heavier rainfall coming over the next week, but it should be of short duration

 

  • Mexico
    precipitation in the coming week will be greatest in central and southern parts of the nation benefiting many corn, sorghum and dry bean production areas
    • Coffee,
      citrus, sugarcane and many fruit and vegetable crops will also benefit
    • Northern
      Mexico and especially the northeast will trend drier after rain fell beneficially from Tropical Depression Hanna Monday

 

  • Central
    America rainfall will be erratic this week and may trend heavier and more widespread next week

 

  • Western
    Europe weather will trend hotter over the next few days
    • Highs
      in France will reach into the 80s and 90s while the U.K. reaches into the 80s
    • Germany
      will experience late week high temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s
    • Very
      little rain will fall through the end of this week

 

  • Western
    Europe will cool down late this week and into the weekend with some limited rainfall expected
    • No
      general soaking will occur to bring significant relief to drought in France or dryness in other areas

 

  • Eastern
    Europe dryness remains in the lower Danube River Basin and southern Balkan Countries
    • Little
      relief is expected despite a few showers and thunderstorms infrequently

 

  • Dryness
    remains quite serious in southern and eastern Ukraine into western Kazakhstan and parts of Russia’s Southern Region and this region is unlikely to see much opportunity for relief anytime soon
    • Crop
      stress in unirrigated areas is quite high and production of dryland corn, soybeans, sunseed and other crops will be down

 

  • Russia’s
    New Lands are expecting some periodic showers and thunderstorms this week and milder temperatures
    • Partial
      relief to dryness is expected, but a general soaking of rain is not very likely outside of a few Ural Mountains’ region crop areas
    • A
      new high-pressure ridge is expected to evolve next week that will return warmer temperatures and bring back drying which increases the importance of rain for this week

 

  • China
    received some additional heavy rain Monday with amounts of 2.00 to more than 5.00 inches occurring from northeastern Guangxi through central Hunan to southern Anhui and southeastern Hubei
    • One
      location in Anhui received more than 6.00 inches of rain
    • Flooding
      occurred again, but the flooding resulting from this rain and that which occurred in Sichuan last weekend was not as serious as the torrential rains that occurred earlier this month and in June that caused devastating floods in the Yangtze River Basin

 

  • China’s
    weather is expected to progressively improve over the next two weeks with less frequent less intensive rain expected as time moves along
    • A
      tropical cyclone that will move over the East China Sea this weekend into next week should remove some of the potential for rain in east-central China and that will be a big relief

 

  • Northern
    China will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks resulting in ongoing favorable crop conditions
    • There
      is some potential for heavy rain early next week in the Korean Peninsula and China’s Northeast Provinces if a tropical cyclone evolves and moves through those areas as advertised

 

  • Xinjiang,
    China continued a little milder than usual in the northeast Monday and degree day accumulations continue to slip below average

 

  • Xinjiang,
    China is not likely to change much over the next week to ten days
    • Daily
      high temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s northeast and in the upper 80s and 90s elsewhere followed by lows in the 50s and 60s with a few lower 70s in the southwest
    • Rain
      is expected in northeastern areas only with Monday, Wednesday and Thursday wettest with daily rainfall of 0.05 to 0.50 inch
      • Dry
        conditions will prevail elsewhere

 

  • India’s
    weather is expected to remain favorable for summer crop development even though some of the rain amounts will be more erratic and lighter than usual
    • Some
      net drying is expected
    • Central
      and northwestern Rajasthan will experience the least amount of rain over the next ten days as will central and southern Pakistan
    • Far
      southern India and a few locations from Odisha into southern Bangladesh will also receive well below average rainfall

 

  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall continued erratic Monday with very little change likely through the next couple of weeks
    • Parts
      of western Thailand, Vietnam and a few areas in Laos and Cambodia have received below average rainfall in recent weeks
      • Crop
        conditions have not been ideal, although there has been sufficient rain to prevent crop failure
        • Greater
          rain is needed, though
    • This
      trend will ease somewhat in the next two weeks with greater rainfall anticipated, but the greatest rainfall is expected to remain pocketed so that some areas will still need greater rain

 

  • Indonesia
    rainfall need is greatest for parts of Sumatra and Java

 

  • Philippines
    rainfall recently has been improving and this trend will continue for a while

 

  • Tropical
    Storm Douglas has moved beyond Hawaii and its impact on the state was much less than feared

 

  • Tropical
    Depression Hanna dissipated over northeastern Mexico Monday

 

  • Canada’s
    Prairies will experience net drying in southern and some central areas where the need for rain will be steadily rising as August begins
    • Rain
      is expected frequently in western and northern Alberta and more infrequently in northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba in the coming week
    • Rain
      may improve next week in southeastern parts of the Prairies, but southwestern areas (including southern and east-central Alberta and west-central and southwestern Saskatchewan) may continue to dry out

 

  • Eastern
    Australia received some additional rainfall Monday with northern and eastern New South Wales and far southeastern Queensland reporting up to 0.68 inch of moisture after rain fell during the weekend

 

  • Australia
    rainfall over the next ten days will be erratic and often too light to benefit crop or field conditions, but winter crops should remain in favorable condition
    • South
      Australia and portions of Queensland still have the greatest need for additional moisture
    • Western
      Australia may receive some needed rain late next week while many other areas will remain drier biased

 

  • Argentina
    will be mostly dry over the coming week
    • Some
      rain may evolve in the south next week, but it is not likely to reach into the drought-stricken areas of Cordoba or immediate neighboring areas

 

  • Southern
    Brazil remains favorably moist
    • More
      rain will fall periodically in far southern Brazil during the next couple of weeks
    • Winter
      crop conditions are mostly good in Rio Grande do Sul and areas north into Parana, but Sao Paulo and a few other areas have been quite dry recently
    • Summer
      crop harvest progress has been good
    • Conditions
      for early season corn planting are looking favorable, but timely rain will need to continue in August to ensure early crops are successful

 

  • Harvest
    weather in center west and center south Brazil for Safrinha crops has been and will continue to be good

 

  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada have some pockets of dryness, but most crops in the two provinces are still developing relatively well
    • Any
      missed rain could lead to greater crop stress and a close watch on the situation is warranted
    • Timely
      rain should occur in most of the region, but resulting amounts may vary greatly leaving a few areas in need of greater rain

 

  • South
    Africa weather over the next couple of weeks will include limited rainfall and temperatures will trend a little warmer over time.
  • West-central
    Africa will receive periods of rain over the next couple of weeks maintaining a favorable environment for coffee, cocoa, cotton, rice and sugarcane
    • Greater
      rain is needed in Ivory Coast and Ghana where rainfall so far this month has been notably lighter than usual
    • Most
      of the rain expected this week will continue erratic and often light
    • Temperatures
      may be a little cooler than usual
  • New
    Zealand rainfall over the next couple of weeks will be erratic and most often light with temperatures being near normal
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +5.96 this morning and the index will remain positive the remainder of this week and into the weekend

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
July 29:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases data on exports of coffee, rice and rubber

THURSDAY,
July 30:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • The
    Australian Grains Industry Conference (online event)
  • Poland
    to publish grain harvest estimates

FRIDAY,
July 31:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for July 1-31 (tentative)
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Corn.

  • Corn
    futures
    fell
    for the third straight session, declining 3.50-5.00 cents on Tuesday.  December is sitting at $3.30, lowest close since June 29.  Good US crop ratings pressured prices.  The unfavorable weather that traders were concerned about FH July didn’t seem to have
    an impact on the national crop rating.  We are hearing some fields will see record yields south of Memphis.     
  • Funds
    sold an estimated net 18,000 corn.    Note funds sold all five major commodities for the session, first time this has happened since July 13. 
  • A
    Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 8,000 at 916,000 barrels (899-940 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 183,000 barrels to 19.984 million.
  • USD
    was up 5 as of 2:16 PM CT. 
  • China
    corn futures traded lower, off a 5- year high, after the government announced effective July 30 bidders will have to pay an extra deposit on trades, and also set delivery requirements to make sure companies where not hording corn supplies. 

·        
Corn and Soybean Advisory are using 178.5 corn and 51.0 soybeans (yields).  Most of the trade is at 180 or above. 

  • In
    a Reuters survey, traders see South Africa’s corn crop (2019-20) at 15.461 million tons, 9.081 white and 6.443 million yellow.  15.461 million tons is 37 percent more than 2019.  More than 50 percent of the corn crop has been harvested and delivered to silos. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on Aug 25 for delivery within four months of contract signing.

 

 

Updated
7/20/
20

  • September
    corn is seen in a $3.10 and $3.35 range over the short term.  December lows could reach $3.10.  We can’t justify below $3.00 unless a shock in the September grain stocks report occurs, or China’s production gets upward revised by a large amount. 

 

Soybean
complex
.

·        
Soybeans ended 9.75-12.25 cents lower bias November to the downside after USDA showed a 3-point improvement in US soybean conditions.  The month of August is an important month for soybean developments
while the US corn crop is basically made.  The 7-day weather outlook appears nonthreatening.    Soybean meal shed $3.50-4.00 and SBO was down 35-40 points. 

  • Funds
    sold an estimated net 11,000 soybeans, sold 4,000 soybean meal and sold 3,000 soybean oil. 

·        
There were no sales announcements today. We heard one cargo traded out of the Gulf for October, while China was busy buying February through May shipment of Brazilian soybeans. 

·        
Another Argentina crush plant announced closures for 72 hours due to Covid-19. 

·        
It appears the latest US relief package will not have a biofuel support attachment, Senator Chuck Grassley indicated. 

·        
US rail soybean meal basis eased across the eastern US from Monday.  Decatur was down 1 to 6 under. 

·        
Soybean and Corn Advisor is at 131 million tons for new-crop Brazil soybeans. 
Arc
Mercosul earlier this week put it at 129.15MMT. 

·        
Palm oil traded lower Tuesday on weakness in global cash prices and Indonesia lowering their 2020 target for biodiesel consumption from 9.6 to 8.3 million kiloliters.  Palm futures are down 6 percent
this week and 15 percent for the year.  The ringgit is at a 6-week high against the USD. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • None
    reported

 

 

November
ICE canola

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Updated
7/28/20

  • September
    soybeans are seen in a $8.71-$9.10 range.
  • September
    soybean meal is seen in a $288 to $300 range. 
  • September
    soybean oil range is seen in a 28.40 to 30.50 range over the short term

 

Wheat

  • US
    wheat futures
    traded
    lower for much of the day after the KC and MN markets failed to rally from technical buying.  Spring wheat ratings are improving.  We lowered our trading ranges on HRW and spring wheat. 
  • Funds
    sold an estimated net 5,000 Chicago wheat. 
  • Egypt
    bought 470,000 tons of wheat for September 1-10 shipment.
  • Paris
    December wheat settled down 1.50 at 182.00.
  • A
    ridge of high pressure will be returning to the New Lands and Kazakhstan next week leading to warmer temperatures and a more limited rainfall pattern. 
  • Russia’s
    harvest 50.2 million tons of grain as of July 28, above 47.9 million tons harvested at around this time last year, but the average grain yield is  coming in lower at 3.45 tons per hectare from 3.52 year earlier. 
  • In
    a Zoom call, the North Dakota Grain Growers group along with ND Wheat Commission noted the ND spring wheat crop could yield less this year due to earlier unfavorable weather.  USDA has a yield of 45 for the state, down from 49 last year. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Egypt
    bought 470,000 tons of wheat, including 350k Russia and 120k Ukrainian, for September 1-10 shipment.
    Lowest
    price paid was $215.10/ton.  With freight, C&F prices ranged from $228.05 to $229.05.  Note t
    hey
    paid $227.28 and $224.48/ton for Ukraine wheat on July 20. 







Supplier

Quantity

Origin

Price

Freight

C&F

Solaris

60,000

Russian

$215.10

$12.95

$228.05

Solaris

60,000

Russian

$215.10

$12.95

$228.05

Posco

60,000

Russian

$215.10

$12.95

$228.05

Nibulon

60,000

Ukrainian

$215.10

$12.95

$228.05

Solaris

55,000

Russian

$215.12

$13.75

$228.87

GTCS

55,000

Russian

$217.50

$11.37

$228.87