PDF Attached


corn and spring wheat crop conditions were unchanged.  Soybean conditions increased one point.  Soybean meal traded two-sided, ending higher, soybeans higher and soybean oil mixed.  Corn and wheat fell on favorable weather.  Egypt is in for wheat.  USDA announced
132,000 tons of soybeans to China.  Taiwan seeks US wheat and Saudi Arabia bought barley. 


and Crop Progress











  • U.S.
    crop weather continues to be mostly good, but parts of Iowa have been too dry in the past couple of weeks along with portions of Ohio, eastern Indiana, central Illinois, central Missouri and in a number of other random locations
  • The
    northern Delta has also been rather dry recently along with much of Texas and southwestern Oklahoma (excluding the Texas Panhandle
  • Today’s
    GFS and European forecast model runs are agreeing that rain will concentrate on two areas this week; the first is from North Dakota to Wisconsin and upper Michigan  and the other will occur from Nebraska into southern Illinois and parts of far southern Indiana
    and immediate neighboring areas
    • These
      areas get rainfall varying from 1.50 to more than 4.00 inches over the next ten days with areas in between these regions getting 0.50 to 1.50 inches
    • Sufficient
      rain still occurs in a large enough part of the Midwest to support corn pollination and soybean development even though there will be some pockets of dryness
    • Both
      models provide some relief to dryness in Iowa and Ohio and Indiana so that moisture stress is kept from getting so extreme that production cuts become a big concern
  • Another
    period of warm and humid weather with restricted rainfall is expected briefly during the end of this week and over the weekend, but it will be followed by another cool front and another opportunity for rain early next week and then another brief bout of drier
    and warmer weather
    • The
      environment will not be ideal, but supportive of summer crop development

overall bottom line remains generally favorable for key U.S. corn and soybean production areas in the Midwest. Rain in the Delta stays somewhat limited while the southeastern states experience a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. A tropical wave still moves
across the Gulf of Mexico this week bringing greater rain to southern Louisiana and the upper half of the Texas coast late this week before spreading some of that moisture into other parts of Texas. The GFS model run suggests some showers in West Texas from
this tropical wave during the weekend while the European model keeps the moisture too far to the south. The GFS solution is most likely and World Weather, Inc. anticipates at least some rain during the weekend from this event. Monsoonal moisture slowly increases
in the southern Rocky Mountain region as time moves along this month. Temperatures will be warmest during the Friday through Sunday period and again late next week, but sufficient cooling is expected after each event to provide some relief for crops.



  • A
    boost in rainfall was suggested this morning by the GFS model run this morning for much of western Europe
    • Some
      of the increase in rainfall is expected to verify, although the European model has not bought into the potential for Rain in France, but has increased rain in parts of the U.S. and Germany
  • Weather
    next week trends drier again in western Europe, although a few showers occur in the U.K. at times
  • GFS
    model keeps eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region relatively dry over the next ten days to two weeks while the European model has the driest conditions in southern Ukraine and parts of Russia’s Southern Region
    • The
      GFS solution seems to be best
  • Rain
    and thunderstorms are scattered in most other areas


bottom line does offer some short-term relief in western Europe with some showers in France, Germany, Belgium and the U.K. late this week and into the weekend. No general soaking is expected, but any moisture would be welcome. There will be need for more generalized
rainfall. Dryness in parts of southern and Eastern Ukraine into Kazakhstan and parts of Russia’s Southern Region will remain a concern for the next couple of weeks, despite any showers that evolve. Temperatures will be seasonable with a warmer than usual bias
in Spain, Portugal, southern France and parts of the southern Balkan Countries



  • Some
    rain is expected along with cooling temperatures in the New Lands this week
    • Rainfall
      will be greatest in the Ural Mountains region and in West Siberia while rainfall elsewhere is expected to be more restricted


break from warm and dry weather is expected in the New Lands over the coming week to ten days with cooler temperatures and at least some rain. A part of the region east of the Ural Mountains will likely get some locally heavy rainfall as suggested by many
of the forecast models, but parts of the New Lands will be missed and a close watch on the precipitation distribution is warranted.




  • Additional
    torrential rain fell during the weekend with one location in southwestern Anhui getting almost 28.00 inches for the weekend
    • Flooding
      is most serious in southern and central Anhui, southeastern Henan and a parts of Jiangsu, southeastern Sichuan, Guizhou and northwestern Hunan where rainfall of 5.00 to 10.00 inches was common over saturated soil
      • Reports
        of serious flooding are surfacing along with implied comments of significant crop and property damage
  • A
    good mix of rain and sunshine is expected in northern China over the next couple of weeks, although there will be some pockets of topsoil dryness that will need to be closely monitored
  • Waves
    of heavy rain will continue in east-central and southeastern China over the next two weeks that may induce additional flooding at times, but the excessive rain should not be as great as it has been, but the region will still need to dry out


of northern and far southern China’s weather will be favorable for crop development, but flooding in the Yangtze River Basin is serious and the damage to agriculture has been significant, but it may be a while to assess the extent of the loss.



  • Monsoonal
    rainfall is expected to impact most of the nation over the next two weeks
  • Far
    western Rajasthan and neighboring southern Pakistan will be slow to get needed rain and those areas will need to be closely monitored
  • Heavy
    rain and flooding is possible in parts of Madhya Pradesh and the Ganges River Basin



  • Rain
    is still expected Thursday and Friday in eastern parts of the nation with sufficient rainfall in northern and central New South Wales and southeastern Queensland to improve winter crop conditions
  • Limited
    rainfall is expected elsewhere over the next ten days



  • No
    significant change was noted from Sunday’s forecasts for rain in southern Argentina Tuesday through Thursday and for the same in southern Brazil late this week and into the weekend
  • A
    second wave of rain was increased in far southern Brazil during the early part of next week

World Weather Inc. and FI



Ag Calendar

July 20:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions of soybeans, corn, cotton; winter wheat progress, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for July 1-20
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

July 21:

  • USDA
    total milk production, 3pm
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction

July 22:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • U.S.
    cold storage – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
  • Thai
    Rice Exporters Association’s briefing on rice export outlook in 2H

July 23:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China
    trade data, including cotton, corn, wheat and sugar imports
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3pm

July 24:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • U.S.
    Cattle on Feed, Poultry Slaughter, 3pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)

July 25:

  • AmSpec
    to release Malaysia’s palm oil export data for July 1-25
  • China’s
    3rd batch of June trade data, incl. country breakdowns for energy and commodities


Bloomberg and FI



inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

500,607     versus  450000-700000           range

1,149,353  versus  650000-1100000         range

452,811     versus  375000-600000           range











GRAIN      07/16/2020  07/09/2020  07/18/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  


49           0           0          416        2,007 

1,149,353     917,968     438,544   36,348,023   43,610,204 

0          24           0          317           24 

0           0           0            0            0 

100           0           0          500          299 

0           0           0            0            0 

71,965      71,265      61,344    4,211,400    1,831,602 

452,811     483,331     563,042   38,315,021   39,282,631 

0           0           0            0            0 

500,607     659,727     447,288    3,575,182    3,408,348 

2,174,885   2,132,315   1,510,218   82,450,859   88,135,115 







  • We
    think the corn crop is “made” as corm pollination will wrap up soon across the US.  59 percent of the US corn crop was silking as of Sunday.  We are using a 177.5 yield and 14.914-billion-bushel crop, 86 million below USDA July. 
  • China
    has not bought any US corn since July 10.  USDA did report 134,408 tons of corn was shipped for the week ending July 16. 

December corn support 3.3050.

University of Illinois: Revisiting Corn Use for Ethanol 




Export Developments

  • Saudi
    Arabia bought 725,000 tons of barley at an average price of $211.43/ton. 
  • Iran’s
    SLAL bought 200,000 tons of corn and 350,000 tons of soybean meal for August and September shipment. 



  • September
    corn is seen in a $3.15 and $3.40 range over the short term.  December lows could reach $3.10. 



  • Soybeans
    higher (up 5 consecutive days) on Chinese soybean demand.  Meal started lower on SBO/Meal spreading but turned higher, ending $2.10-$2.80/short ton.  Soybean oil, which was up by a strong amount overnight, finished mixed.  Bottom picking in meal and profit
    taking in soybean oil were noted.  We see a minor correction in the US soybean oil share this week if global vegetable oil prices either stabilize or decline.  Palm oil prices, at a 5-month high, will be very important to watch.  MPOB warned palm oil production
    yield could be down as much as 25 percent because of a labor shortage and is expected to worsen over the next few months. 

oil share

  • AmSpec
    reported July 1-20 palm oil exports at 1.171MMT, down 3.5 percent.  ITS reported a 4.6 percent decrease from the previous period last month. 
  • Soybean
    meal demand across the US may slow later this week and again next week as hot temperatures limit the amount of feed needed by livestock and poultry units. 
  • 69
    percent of the US soybean crop was rated in the combined good and excellent categories, up one point from the previous week and compares to 54 percent year ago and 64 average. Traders were looking for a one-point decline in the US G/E soybean conditions. 
    25 percent of the US soybean crop was setting pods, up from 21 percent average.  64 percent was blooming, above 57 percent average. 
  • USDA
    announced 2 new crop cargoes were sold to China.  
  • USDA
    also reported 77,345 tons of US soybeans were shipped to China in its weekly export inspections report. 
  • China
    crush margins on our analysis were down from Friday but remain high enough to promote soybean buying. 
  • A
    Paranaguá port operator see Brazil 2020 soybean oil exports rising 26 percent from 2019 to 1.25 million tons with China and India the main destinations.  This is much higher than what we would expect due to the 12 percent biodiesel mandate.  Brazil is not
    a huge exporter of soybean oil as they use much of it internally. 


Export Developments

  • Iran’s
    SLAL bought 200,000 tons of corn and 350,000 tons of soybean meal for August and September shipment. 
  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China for 2020-21 delivery.



  • August
    soybeans are seen in a $8.75-$9.22 range.
  • August
    soybean meal is seen in a $285 to $315 range. 
  • August
    soybean oil range is seen in a 28.50 to 31.00 range over the short term



Paris December wheat was down 2.75 at 183.50.

USDA in its weekly export inspections report showed China took 182,596 tons (largest buyer for the week). 

Russian wheat prices were up week of week.  SovEcon reported 12.5% protein from Black Sea ports at $208.5 a ton FOB at the end of last week, up $6.5 from the previous week. 



  • Egypt
    seeks wheat for August 21-31 shipment. 
  • Taiwan
    seeks 98,230 tons of US wheat on Wednesday. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on July 21 for Sep-Nov shipment. 
  • Japan
    in an SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley on July 22 for arrival by December 24.
  • Awaited:
    Ethiopia postponed an import tender for 400,000 tons of wheat to July 20 from July 10. 
  • Syria
    seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat from Russia by July 28. 



  • None



  • Chicago September is seen in a $5.00-$5.50 range.
  • KC September; $4.25-$4.50 range. 
  • MN September $4.80-$5.20 range.


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366


AIM: fi_treilly


Skype: fi.treilly


Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail


Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered
only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making
your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors
should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy
of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.