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Calls:
Corn
2-5 higher, beans steady-higher, and wheat 4-7 higher Chicago & KC, 6-12 Minneapolis Spring Wheat.
Choppy
two-sided trade in CBOT futures. WTI was sharply lower after OPEC and its allies agreed to boost output. USD was up 15 points as of 1:30 PM CT. Virus concerns impacted other global markets. US equities were sharply lower. 30 year yield traded at 1.81%,
lowest since February 1. US spring wheat conditions declined by a more than expected 4 points to only 11 percent good/excellent. Corn was unchanged at 65 percent and soybeans rose one point to 60 percent. 73 percent of the US winter wheat had been harvested,
up from 59 percent last week and one point below average.
WORLD
WEATHER INC.
CHANGES
OVERNIGHT
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Frost
and freezes occurred this morning from Rio Grande do Sul to southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and a few southernmost Minas Gerais locations.
o
Most hard freezes were in the wheat production areas of Parana where there may have been some permanent damage depending on the stage of crop development
o
Frost in sugarcane, citrus and coffee areas should not have been serious enough to induce permanent crop damage
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Tropical
Storm Cempaka was located 103 miles southwest of Hong Kong at 21.1 north, 112.9 east moving west northwesterly at 3 mph and producing wind speeds to 58 mph
o
The storm will eventually move inland over Guangdong, China Tuesday and heavy rain from the storm is expected through at least Thursday resulting in some flood damage to rice and personal property
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Tropical
Storm In-Fa was located 259 miles southeast of Okinawa or 615 miles east southeast of Taipei near 24.1 north, 131.4 east moving northwesterly at 3 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 58 mph.
o
In-Fa is expected to become a typhoon Tuesday and it will pass to the immediate north of Taipei, Taiwan Friday
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Heavy
rain and flooding along with some strong wind may impact northern parts of the island and some computer forecast models have the storm moving directly across northern Taiwan -
A
close watch on the storm is warranted because of the potential for devastating floods and wind
o
Landfall will ultimately end up over Fujian and/or southern Zhejiang where torrential rainfall is possible along with very strong wind speeds
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Damage
to crops and property are expected, although the details of that will be known later this week as the storm moves closer to land
MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY
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Weekend
U.S. weather was dry from the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin into northern Illinois, northern Missouri and parts of northeastern Kansas
o
Rain fell in most other Midwest locations and in the Delta with some heavy rain noted
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Rain
totals ranged from 1.00 to 2.00 inches with local amounts over 3.00 inches
o
Rain the U.S. southeastern states was more erratic with local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches in parts of Alabama, central South Carolina and from northeastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
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However,
more than 6.00 inches fell along the Georgia/Alabama border
o
Scattered thunderstorms occurred in the Texas Panhandle and northern parts of West Texas with rainfall reaching 1.00 to 2.67 inches near the New Mexico border
o
Dry weather occurred in most of the far western U.S.; including the Pacific Northwest, California, the Great Basin and much of the southwestern desert region
o
Temperatures were seasonably warm to hot in many areas in the western United States with Montana temperatures in the 90s to 104 degrees Fahrenheit
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Other
temperatures over 100 occurred in the southwestern desert region with extremes to 112 -
U.S.
weather through Thursday will not generate enough rain to counter evaporation in the west coast states, the Pacific Northwest, the northern and central Plains or much of the Midwest
o
These areas will not be totally dry, but the showers that occur will be too brief and light to counter evaporative moisture losses
o
Temperatures will be most anomalously hot in the northern Plains where Montana will reach 110 Fahrenheit and possibly a little hotter
o
Warmer than usual conditions will also occur in the interior western states
o
Temperatures will be more seasonable in other areas with readings in the central and southern Plains and western Corn Belt gradually trending a little hotter with 90-degree highs by late this week
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U.S.
Midwest rainfall will increase Friday through Sunday from central and eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and parts of Michigan to the Ohio River Valley
o
Rainfall of 0.30 to 0.90 inch and local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches will be possible
o
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also occur in the Delta during this period of time with more isolated showers in the southeastern states
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Daily
rainfall in these areas will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with locally more
o
Net drying will continue elsewhere; including most of the western Corn Belt
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U.S.
temperature anomalies will be warmer than usual during both this week and next week in the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western United States while temperatures will be more seasonable elsewhere
o
Temperatures will be hottest early to mid-week this week and again starting in Montana next Sunday and advancing across the northern Plains during the first half of next week
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Temperature
extremes in the 90s to 110 degrees will occur during both of these periods of excessive heat with Montana and the western Dakotas most impacted by extremes above 100.
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Eastern
U.S. Midwest temperatures will trend warmer at times this week and next week, but there will be some brief periods of cooling keeping the heat from becoming excessive
o
The warmer bouts of weather will prove very helpful to corn and soybean production areas that have abundant soil moisture since it will stimulate more aggressive crop development and help ensure the best yield potentials.
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Monsoonal
precipitation will increase over the next ten days from Arizona and western New Mexico into Utah, eastern Nevada and Colorado -
The
bottom line for U.S. crop areas will remain one of concern over the next two weeks over production potentials for spring summer crops in the Dakotas, Montana and eventually in parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Net drying is also expected in
a part of Kansas, Missouri and parts of western Illinois. West Texas crop areas will experience a good mix of weather for improved summer crop conditions. The Delta may get a little more rain than desired, but no serious harm will come to crops in the region.
With that said, the Delta needs to dry down for early corn maturation and harvesting. The Southeastern states will experience a good mix of weather supporting aggressive crop development, although Virginia may dry out. Monsoonal rainfall will increase during
the week from Arizona and western New Mexico to Utah, southern and eastern Nevada and Colorado. The Pacific Coast states will continue very dry and the region’s forest fires will continue to burn.
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Canada’s
Prairies continued excessively dry during the weekend in southern and eastern crop areas, but rain fell in western and northern Alberta with amounts of 0.10 to 0.71 inch with a few amounts to 1.58 inches
o
Rainfall elsewhere was not significant and net drying occurred with widespread crop stress
o
Highest temperatures were in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit occurred in northwestern Alberta while in the 90s from southeastern Alberta through much of central and southern Saskatchewan into central and southern Manitoba
o
Lowest morning temperatures slipped to the upper 40s in the Peace River Region in northwestern Alberta
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Manitoba
and a few northeastern Saskatchewan, Canada locations may receive some rain briefly during mid-week this week and again late this week and possibly a little later next week, as well
o
Resulting rainfall is not likely to be great enough to seriously improve crop or field conditions, but any rain would be better than none
o
Temperatures will be warmer than usual throughout the coming two weeks except in northwestern Alberta where additional rain is expected periodically which will help hold temperatures down for a little while.
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Ontario
and Quebec, Canada will receive near to above average rainfall this week and lighter rain next week while temperatures are close to normal with a slight cooler bias -
Europe
has been too wet so far this month in the central and northeastern parts of the continent, but rain during the weekend was diminishing in this region setting the stage for an end of winter grain and oilseed quality declines at least for a while
o
Harvest delays continued during the weekend, but change is coming
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Europe
will see much less rain in this coming week offering improvement for grain quality and harvest progress from eastern France to Poland where it has been wettest
o
Rain may increase again in France and Germany at the end of this month
o
Even though this week will be drier biased there will still be some rain late this week into early next week that may set back the drying trend briefly
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Drought
relief occurred in parts of the Europe’s western Balkan region during the weekend with rainfall of 0.57 to 3.27 inches of rain resulting
o
Not all areas received sufficient rain to ease long term dryness, but a significant amount of relief occurred in other areas
o
Additional rain will fall in a part of this region this week with 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain expected throughout southeastern Europe
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CIS
rain during the weekend was a little sporadic, but showers were noted in many areas north of Russia’s Southern Region, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
o
The moisture was welcome in western Russia where net drying occurred in the past week, but more rain is needed
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CIS
rainfall this week will be most significant and frequent from western Ukraine to the Volga Vyatsk and Ural Mountain region where 1.00 to 2.00 inches and local totals over 3.00 inches may occur this week
o
Net drying is expected in northwestern Russia, the Baltic States, Belarus and many areas from Russia’s Southern Region into Kazakhstan
o
A boost in rainfall should occur during mid- to late-week next week in northwestern Russia, the Baltic States and Belarus
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Drying
will continue from southern parts of Russia’s Southern region into Kazakhstan -
The
bottom line for the CIS will be one of good crop development potential from western and central Ukraine to the Ural Mountain region and Volga Vyatsk. Crop conditions will also remain mostly good in Russia’s eastern New Lands. In the meantime, net drying from
Russia’s Southern Region into Kazakhstan will be stressful for unirrigated summer crops which may feel some downward pressure on production. Moisture stress in northwestern Russia may linger for a while through the coming week to ten days, but relief should
come shortly thereafter. -
China
weekend rainfall brought back excessive rain to Anhui, northern Jiangxi, eastern Henan, western Shandong and parts of Shanxi. Excessive rain also occurred in interior eastern Sichuan and areas southward into Guizhou and eastern Guangxi
o
All of these areas reported rainfall of 3.50 to 6.00 inches with local totals to 14.29 inches in western Anhui and nearly 11.14 inches in western Shanxi.
o
Rainfall elsewhere was much lighter with many areas of net drying
o
Highest weekend temperatures were in the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the nation, but in the upper 90s in the interior south
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Rain
is expected in most of China during the next two weeks
o
This will keep some areas a little too wet and others more favorably moist to support the best production potential
o
Tropical Storm Cempaka was expected to drift into Guangdong Tuesday and last through Thursday with rainfall of more than 10.00 inches of rain resulting
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Tropical
Storm In-Fa will bring torrential rain, flooding and strong wind to Taiwan and southeastern China
o
The storm may impact Taiwan and both Fujian and Zhejiang, China during the latter part of this week
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Some
rice and sugarcane damage is expected -
Xinjiang,
China weekend rainfall was mostly confined to areas near the mountains
o
Temperatures were a little milder than usual with highs in the northeast in the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit while in the lower to middle 90s in the southwest
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Xinjiang
China degree day accumulations continue behind normal
o
Warming is needed
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Hurricane
Felicia and Topical Storm Guillermo were in the eastern Pacific Ocean and both were moving away from Mexico and expected to remain south of Hawaii
o
No land impact is expected from either of these storms
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India
weather during the weekend was wettest from Bangladesh to Uttar Pradesh and in portions of the interior south
o
Amounts were highly varied with most areas reporting 1.00 to 3.00 inches in the east while interior southern areas reported amounts mostly under 1.00 inch
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Local
amounts to more than 5.00 inches occurred near the Nepal border
o
Coastal areas were wettest along the middle west coast where rainfall of 5.00 to more than 13.50 inches resulted
o
Drying occurred from Odisha through southwestern Madhya Pradesh to parts of Gujarat and western parts of Rajasthan
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Much
of Pakistan was also dry along with eastern Maharashtra -
India
rainfall over the next two weeks will slowly increase bringing rain to most of the nation and improve crop and field conditions over time
o
There is some concern over net drying in the far south and extreme northwest, but most other areas will receive sufficient rain to bolster soil moisture and support improving crop development and long term moisture supply
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Brazil
weekend precipitation was greatest from southern Mato Grosso do Sul to southern Sao Paulo and Parana with rainfall of 0.20 to 0.84 inch and local totals to 1.18 inches
o
Dry weather prevailed elsewhere
o
Norther Brazil was warm while frost and freezes impacted the far south
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Southern
Brazil will continue cool early to mid-week this week
o
Frost and freezes will impact wheat areas from Parana into Rio Grande do Sul
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Winter
wheat could be temporarily impacted from Parana to Rio Grande do Sul -
A
close watch on temperature extremes is warranted, though
o
Soft frost may reach a few pockets in the traditionally coolest areas of Sul de Minas, but no crop damage is expected in the key coffee, citrus or sugarcane production areas
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Brazil
will be drier biased during the next ten days -
Argentina
weather will be mostly dry over the next ten days
o
Some winter wheat would welcome rain especially in the west, but crop conditions are much better than last year at this time
o
Crops are mostly semi-dormant right now
o
No meaningful precipitation fell during the weekend
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West-central
Africa rainfall during the weekend brought some needed moisture to parts of Ivory Coast and Ghana, although some of the rainfall was not enough to counter evaporation
o
Western Ghana and western Ivory Coast reported 0.40 to more than 2.00 inches of rain with one Ivory Coast location reporting 2.83 inches
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Ivory
Coast and Ghana rainfall will be restricted over the next couple of weeks
o
Seasonal rainfall should return normally in September, but August rainfall will be lighter than usual
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Other
areas in West Africa will see a better distribution of rain -
East-central
Africa rainfall will continue favorable for coffee and cocoa, although some areas in Uganda and Kenya may receive less than usual rainfall
o
Ethiopia rainfall is expected to continue improving after a slow start to the rainy season
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Southern
Oscillation Index has reached back about +12.32 and it is expected to remain strongly positive this week while slowly leveling off after a strong rising trend since June 22 when the index was -3.36 -
Southeast
Asia rainfall recently and that which is expected in the next two weeks will continue somewhat erratic
o
Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Philippines will see the greatest rainfall
o
Sumatra and Java, Indonesia and Peninsular Malaysia may experience less than usual rainfall for a while
o
Thailand will also experience less than usual rainfall, although there has been some beneficial moisture recently
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Australia
weather in the first half of July has been ideal for improving winter wheat, barley and canola establishment in much of the nation
o
Weekend rainfall was greatest from South Australia into Victoria and New South Wales where 0.30 to 0.71 inch occurred with local totals of 1.00 to 2.60 inches in Victoria
o
Some additional rain is still needed in South Australia, northwestern Victoria and from western New South Wales to western crop areas of Queensland
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South
Africa has been cold during the past week with waves of rain in the southwest
o
Weekend rainfall was still cool, but rain ended in many areas
o
The moisture has been good for future wheat development
o
Dryness remains in some of the unirrigated eastern wheat production areas
o
Some warming is expected over the coming week, but the precipitation anomalies will prevail
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Mexico
weather has improved with increased rainfall in the south and west parts of the nation
o
Drought conditions are waning and crops are performing better
o
Dryness remains in Chihuahua and northeastern parts of the nation
o
Weather over the next ten days will offer some relief, but more rain will be needed in the drier areas
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Central
America rainfall has been plentiful and will remain that way except in Honduras where recent rainfall has been lighter and more sporadic than usual
o
Nicaragua has received frequent bouts of rain this month easing long term dryness, but more may be needed in some locations
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New
Zealand rainfall during the coming week will be near to above normal in North Island and western portions of South Island while below average in eastern South Island
o
Temperatures will be seasonable