GFS model looked a little wetter for the heart of the Midwest this morning. Corn was mostly lower for the day. Soybeans chopped around. The talk today was about biodiesel demand and meal demand bias WCB. We get ethanol numbers on Wednesday. USDA report is Friday. Wheat traded two-sided on a pickup in global import demand and cut to the French wheat crop.
MARKET WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: Concern over U.S. weather, northwestern Europe weather, eastern Black Sea weather and the central New Lands weather will maintain some bullishness to market mentality today. Weather in China may also be contributing some bullishness because of flooding, although most of the crop damage has not been in key corn and soybean production areas.
India’s weather looks very good and canola establishment in southern Australia is advancing favorably. Canada’s Canola will receive some timely rainfall to provide some improvement to crop conditions.
Overall, weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a bullish bias.
MARKET WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT: Wheat harvest weather in the U.S. will be fair to good over the next ten days. Very good conditions are expected in western and central Europe and the eastern Black Sea region as well. Rain may be threatening grain quality in Eastern Europe, including western Ukraine, Belarus and western Russia. China wheat quality may have slipped a little in recent weeks because of some rainy weather.
Spring wheat in northeastern China is in good condition. Some improvement in wheat is expected in Canada as rainfall increases in the Prairies, although some of the crops in the driest areas in Saskatchewan have already advanced too far to benefit from rain. Crop conditions may also improve in the U.S. northern Plains. Rain is needed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, although much of that crop is irrigated. Crop conditions in southeastern Canada are rated favorably.
There is some concern over future Russia spring wheat conditions in the central New Lands where heat and dryness are expected soon.
Australia winter grains are establishing relatively well, although more rain is needed in Queensland and South Australia. Rain is also needed in western Argentina. Too much rain may fall in southern Brazil soon that could result in some crop damage.
Overall, weather today is likely to produce a mixed influence on market mentality.
- U.S. Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
- New Zealand global dairy trade auction
WEDNESDAY, July 8:
- EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
- Brazil’s crop agency Conab releases data on area, output and yield of corn, soybeans
- China’s CNGOIC releases monthly report on supply and demand of soy and corn
- FranceAgriMer monthly crop report
THURSDAY, July 9:
- USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
- Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
- Brazil’s Unica may release cane crush, sugar production during the week (tentative)
- EARNINGS: Suedzucker, Barry Callebaut, Agrana
- HOLIDAY: Argentina
FRIDAY, July 10:
- USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
- China farm ministry’s CASDE monthly crop supply- demand report
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s data on reserves, exports and production in June
- ICE Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
- CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
- FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
- Malaysia’s palm oil export data for July 1-10
- Cherkizovo trading update
- HOLIDAY: Singapore (election day), Argentina
Source: Bloomberg and FI
US JOLTS Job Openings May: 5397 (est 4500; prev R 4996)
US Pres. Trump: ‘We Will Stay Open, We’re Not Closing’
- Corn traded most of the day lower on a slight improvement for week one of the US weather outlook. Rain is expected to fall across the heart of the Midwest where crop conditions are lagging top rated states. The USD was higher. Funds sold 10,000 corn.
- CBOT deliverable corn stocks are extremely low for this time of year at 448,000 bushels and compares to 3.6 million a year ago. Toledo was zero and Chicago 80,000. One broker can’t recall Toledo going to zero, for both corn and soybeans.
· Brazil’s Mata Grosso IMEA department looks for the state corn crop to end up near 33.27 million tons, slightly higher than last month.
· A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 18,000 at 918,000 barrels (903-950 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 148,000 barrels to 20.312 million.
· 86 US meal plant workers perished to COVID-19 through the end of May, according to the CDC.
- None reported
September corn is seen in a $3.20 and $3.65 range over the short term. December lows could reach $3.05 if US weather cooperates.