PDF Attached

 

Calls: 
Corn steady, soybeans steady to 2 lower, Chicago & KC wheat to up 2 cents and MN up 3-5 cents. 

 

Corn,
wheat, and soybean oil made impressive gains today in part to a rally in the energy markets and short covering ahead of the USDA report.  There were rumors China bought US corn, but we could not verify this.  Hot and dry conditions are forecast for the US
WCB, which is supportive for corn. Soybeans ended slightly higher. Soybean meal ended $1.60-$2.00 lower.  China cash crush margins were weaker this morning.  China expanded their list of global meat plants for import to 15, including a beef plant in Canada
and pork plant in Denmark. Global wheat developments picked up.  StatsCan showed less than expected wheat, corn and soybean area.  Durum was higher than expected and canola near expectations.   

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  U.S. weather conditions are still favorable, despite erratic rainfall during the weekend and erratic rainfall over the next two weeks. No seriously threatening weather is perceived right now, although less rain and
warm temperatures are expected as time moves along in the heart of the Midwest during July.

            Drying
in Western Europe will be closely monitored. France experienced some significant drying late last week and during the weekend and similar conditions were expected for a little while in Germany and parts of the U.K. Good crop weather will continue for coarse
grain and oilseeds in Eastern Europe

           
Net drying is also expected to expand from Russia’s Southern Region into eastern Ukraine which may be of some interest.

            Rainy
weather in China has not harmed most summer coarse grain and oilseed production potentials in the key production areas from east-central through northeastern parts of the nation, despite some recent flooding. Flooding has been more serious in lesser important
corn, soybean, groundnut and sorghum areas, but some damage has occurred in the Yangtze River Basin. Rapeseed production and quality has been hurt by this year’s wet weather.

            India’s
weather has been good so far this summer, but some flooding may evolve soon in a few central crop areas. Most crops should not be seriously harmed.

            Canola
in Australia is rated favorably, although more rain is needed in Western Australia and South Australia.

            Second
season corn maturation and harvesting should advance relatively well in Brazil, despite some rain in the southern production areas.

            Improving
rainfall in Mexico will be good for corn and sorghum planting and establishment.

            Canola
in Canada’s Prairies should improve with rain during the weekend and that which is coming this week.

            Overall,
weather is going to produce a mixed influence on market mentality today.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Weather conditions during the weekend and that coming this week will improve for much of Canada’s Prairies. Badly needed rain is expected that will bolster soil moisture and improve production potentials

           
Wheat harvest weather in the U.S. Plains will be good over the next ten days and conditions in the Midwest will be fair to good. Some rain occasionally in the lower Midwest and areas southward into the Delta and Tennessee River Basin will hinder harvest activity
and could raise some crop quality issues.

            Western
Europe drier biased weather will expedite small grain development and maturation at the possible expense of some yield. Eastern Europe and the western CIS will remain plenty moist and some drying will be needed soon to promote grain maturation.

            Russia’s
spring wheat crop should be doing okay, but sunnier and warmer conditions would promote faster development and better yield potentials. Rain in southeastern parts of the New Lands this week will improve low soil moisture and support better future crop development.

            China’s
spring cereals are in favorable condition. Winter crops are maturing and being harvested with some concern about grain quality in the far south.

            Australia’s
winter cereals are establishing relatively well, but more rain is needed in Western and South Australia and in Queensland.

            South
Africa needs rain for its wheat crop especially in the east. Western Argentina remains too dry as well.

            Overall,
weather today will likely have a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
June 29:

  • Canada
    Statcan data on seeded area for wheat, durum, canola, barley, soybeans, 8:30am
  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop progress, conditions — soybeans, wheat, cotton, 4pm
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics data on coffee, rice, rubber exports
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EARNINGS:
    Biosev

TUESDAY,
June 30:

  • U.S.
    annual acreage planted – soybeans, wheat, cotton, corn
  • USDA
    quarterly stocks of corn, wheat, barley, oat, sorghum and soybeans
  • OECD
    annual agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation report
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for June 1-30

WEDNESDAY,
July 1:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Brazil
    soybean exports
  • Australia
    commodity index
  • U.S.
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Holiday:
    Canada, Hong Kong

THURSDAY,
July 2:

  • UN
    FAO world food price index, 4am
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • AB
    Foods trading update

FRIDAY,
July 3:

  • U.S.
    Independence Day Holiday
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 25, 2020

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      06/25/2020  06/18/2020  06/27/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0          367        1,053 

CORN       
1,234,690   1,295,845     284,923   33,230,040   41,759,790 

FLAXSEED         
269          24           0          293           24 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0         100           0          300          299 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM      
158,657     109,945      56,255    4,008,508    1,638,429 

SOYBEANS     
324,512     255,810     720,842   36,808,094   37,102,106 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
515,359     686,036     696,142    2,000,953    1,984,089 

Total      
2,233,487   2,347,760   1,758,162   76,048,555   82,485,790 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND