PDF Attached

 

Geopolitical
problems (US/China/Brazil), increase in coronavirus cases, and weak outside markets sent a bearish ripple through the CBOT agriculture markets.  We thought today was about positioning ahead of USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, but outside factors sacked
wheat, and at the close the soybean crush got hammered due to a selloff in meal and oil.  Reasoning behind wheat could be explained, but the soybean products falling out of bed remains a mystery.  We thought the Hogs and Pigs report was viewed supportive for
corn and soybean meal. 
This
limited losses for corn but not for meal.  Favorable weather also remained a driver. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:
 
U.S. weather is expected to be nearly ideal over the coming two weeks with periodic showers and thunderstorms intermixing with periods of sunshine and warm temperatures over this first week while drying and warming occurs in the second week. Crop development
will advance aggressively. Some pockets of dryness will remain, and the second week of the forecast will trend a little drier and warmer making the second and third weeks in July important to watch.

           
Summer crops in Europe may trend drier in the west, but some rain will return in early July to prevent dryness from becoming a big issue. Eastern Europe and the western CIS will continue favorably moist throughout the next two weeks. Most of China’s summer
coarse grain and oilseed crops will also stay in good shape along with much of India’s crops. Some dryness remains north of the Yellow River in China, but that area will get some needed rain soon. Northeast China is a little too wet, but the impact on corn
and soybeans should be low.

           
Drying in Russia’s Southern Region will continue a concern with some expansion into eastern Ukraine now advertised as well.

            Canola
production potential in Australia is looking good, but rapeseed in China has suffered from too much moisture this year. Europe’s winter rapeseed has likely yielded a little poorly, but summer crops are poised to perform well. Canada’s canola crop will be improving
over the next two weeks.

           
Brazil Safrinha corn is maturing relatively well and harvesting in Argentina has gone well also.

            The
bottom line will lead to a bearish bias for market mentality today.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:
 
Weather conditions in U.S. hard red winter wheat in the Plains and soft red wheat areas in the Midwest will remain favorable as rain frequency slowly subsides and better drying conditions emerge. This change is already under way in the Plains, but the Midwest
will be slow to dry down.

           
Canada’s wheat will remain in good condition in Ontario and Quebec while varying from fair to good condition in the Prairies. Dryness remains a concern from eastern Montana and the western Dakotas into southwestern Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan where some
relief is possible late this weekend into next week.

            Wheat
conditions in Europe vary greatly with some concern over crop conditions in parts of France, Germany and the United Kingdom from dryness earlier this year. Some rain in southeastern Europe has improved winter crop production potentials as well as in Ukraine
and southwestern Russia. Rain this week in the eastern CIS New Lands should translate into improved soil moisture for better spring wheat development near the Kazakhstan border. Drying from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region will raise concern for
late season crop development.

           
Argentina wheat conditions have been improving except in the western parts of the nation where La Pampa, Cordoba, far western Buenos Aires and western Santa Fe need more rain. Brazil wheat conditions are fair to very good with rain needed in the north and
some drying in the south.  Rain in Brazil during the next week to ten days will fix the moisture deficits and may make parts of the south too wet.

            Overall,
weather today may have a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
June 26:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

MONDAY,
June 29:

  • Canada
    Statcan data on seeded area for wheat, durum, canola, barley, soybeans, 8:30am
  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop progress, conditions — soybeans, wheat, cotton, 4pm
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics data on coffee, rice, rubber exports
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EARNINGS:
    Biosev

TUESDAY,
June 30:

  • U.S.
    annual acreage planted – soybeans, wheat, cotton, corn
  • USDA
    quarterly stocks of corn, wheat, barley, oat, sorghum and soybeans
  • OECD
    annual agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation report
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for June 1-30

WEDNESDAY,
July 1:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Brazil
    soybean exports
  • Australia
    commodity index
  • U.S.
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Holiday:
    Canada, Hong Kong

THURSDAY,
July 2:

  • UN
    FAO world food price index, 4am
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • AB
    Foods trading update

FRIDAY,
July 3:

  • U.S.
    Independence Day Holiday
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE-Canadian
crop planting trade estimates – Reuters News

(Reuters)
– Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its estimates of Canadian crop plantings on Monday, June 29 at 7:30 a.m. CDT (1230 GMT)

The
following are trade estimates from 16 analysts and traders:



Average
estimate

Lowest
estimate

Highest
estimate

Statscan

April
2020

Statscan
2019

(mln
acres)

All
wheat

25.2

24.2

25.8

25.4

24.6</