PDF Attached

 

During
the trading day we heard China bought an unknown quantity of US corn and the Philippines may have bought soybean meal.  Lower WTI added downward pressure to soybean oil.  Corn basis for Seneca, IL was down 40 to 45 under due in large part to upcoming river
lock repairs. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS

U.S. weather is expected to be nearly ideal over the coming two weeks with periodic showers and thunderstorms intermixing with periods of sunshine and warm temperatures over this first week while drying and warming occurs in the second week. Crop development
will advance aggressively.

            Summer
crops in Europe may trend drier in the west, but some rain will return in early July to prevent dryness from becoming a big issue. Eastern Europe and the western CIS will continue favorably moist throughout the next two weeks. Most of China’s summer coarse
grain and oilseed crops will also stay in good shape along with much of India’s crops. Some dryness will occur north of the Yellow River in China while the Northeast Provinces in China are a little too wet, but the impact on corn and soybeans should be low.

           
Drying in Russia’s Southern Region will continue a concern.

            Canola
production potential in Australia is looking good, but rapeseed in China has suffered from too much moisture this year. Europe’s winter rapeseed has likely yielded a little poorly, but summer crops are poised to perform well.

            Brazil
Safrinha corn is maturing relatively well and harvesting in Argentina has gone well also.

            The
bottom line will likely lead to a bearish bias for market mentality today, although there is some evidence that ridge building will occur in early July over some key U.S. crop areas.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:
 
Weather conditions in U.S. hard red winter wheat in the Plains and soft red wheat areas in the Midwest will be wet enough this week to raise some concern over crop quality, but drier weather should evolve in time to limit the impact of too much moisture.

            Canada’s
wheat will remain in good condition in Ontario and Quebec while varying from fair to good condition in the Prairies. Dryness remains a concern from eastern Montana and the western Dakotas into southwestern Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan where some relief
is possible next week, but confidence is low.

            Wheat
conditions in Europe vary greatly with some concern over crop conditions in parts of France, Germany and the United Kingdom from dryness earlier this year. Some rain in southeastern Europe has improved winter crop production potentials as well as in Ukraine
and southwestern Russia. Rain this week in the eastern CIS New Lands should translate into improved soil moisture for better spring wheat development near the Kazakhstan border.

           
Argentina wheat conditions have been improving except in the western parts of the nation where La Pampa, Cordoba, far western Buenos Aires and western Santa Fe need more rain. Brazil wheat conditions are fair to very good with rain needed in the north and
some drying in the south.  Rain in Brazil during the next week to ten days will fix the moisture deficits and may make parts of the south too wet.

            Overall,
weather today may have a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
June 24:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • U.S.
    poultry slaughter, 3pm

THURSDAY,
June 25:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for June 1-25
  • USDA
    hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, 3pm

FRIDAY,
June 26:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

Macros

US
DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 16-Jun: 1442K (est 1500K; prev 1215K)


Distillate Inventories (W/W): 249K (est -500K; prev -1358K)


Cushing OK Crude Inventories (W/W): -991K (prev -2608K)


Gasoline Inventories (W/W): -1673K (est -1728K; prev -1666K)


Refinery Utilization(W/W): 0.80% (est 0.50%; prev 0.70%)