PDF Attached

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  U.S. weather is expected to be nearly ideal over the coming two weeks with periodic showers and thunderstorms intermixing with periods of sunshine and warm temperatures over this first week while drying and warming
occurs in the second week. Crop development will advance aggressively.

            Summer
crops in Europe may trend drier in the west, but some rain will return in early July to prevent dryness from becoming a big issue. Eastern Europe and the western CIS will continue favorably moist throughout the next two weeks. Most of China’s summer coarse
grain and oilseed crops will also stay in good shape along with much of India’s crops. Some dryness will occur north of the Yellow River in China while the Northeast Provinces in China are a little too wet, but the impact on corn and soybeans should be low.

           
Drying in Russia’s Southern Region will continue a concern.

            Canola
production potential in Australia is looking good, but rapeseed in China has suffered from too much moisture this year. Europe’s winter rapeseed has likely yielded a little poorly, but summer crops are poised to perform well.

            Brazil
Safrinha corn is maturing relatively well and harvesting in Argentina has gone well also.

            The
bottom line will likely lead to a bearish bias for market mentality today, although there is some evidence that ridge building will occur in early July over some key U.S. crop areas.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Weather conditions in U.S. hard red winter wheat in the Plains and soft red wheat areas in the Midwest will be wet enough this week to raise some concern over crop quality, but drier weather should evolve in time to limit the
impact of too much moisture.

            Canada’s
wheat will remain in good condition in Ontario and Quebec while varying from fair to good condition in the Prairies. Dryness remains a concern from eastern Montana and the western Dakotas into southwestern Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan where some relief
is possible next week, but confidence is low.

            Wheat
conditions in Europe vary greatly with some concern over crop conditions in parts of France, Germany and the United Kingdom from dryness earlier this year. Some rain in southeastern Europe has improved winter crop production potentials as well as in Ukraine
and southwestern Russia. Rain this week in the eastern CIS New Lands should translate into improved soil moisture for better spring wheat development near the Kazakhstan border.

           
Argentina wheat conditions have been improving except in the western parts of the nation where La Pampa, Cordoba, far western Buenos Aires and western Santa Fe need more rain. Brazil wheat conditions are fair to very good with rain needed in the north and
some drying in the south.  Rain in Brazil during the next week to ten days will fix the moisture deficits and may make parts of the south too wet.

            Overall,
weather today may have a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
June 24:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • U.S.
    poultry slaughter, 3pm

THURSDAY,
June 25:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysia’s
    palm oil export data for June 1-25
  • USDA
    hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, 3pm

FRIDAY,
June 26:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Corn.

·        
Corn futures hit a three-week low on improving corn conditions and large Chinese state corn sales. 

·        
September corn low was 3.2575.  $3.25 is our current low end for the trading range. 

·        
The general US weather theme was unchanged from yesterday.  A short-lived ridge will develop over the US Midwest next week. Before and after that event sporadic rain will occur. 

·        
50 percent of a Reuters poll posted on Twitter thinks a yield of 180 bu/acre is possible. 

·        
US corn conditions increased one point to 72 percent,  The trade was looking for a one-point decline.  2 percent of the US corn is silking, same as average. 

·        
China’s Sinograin sold 1.1MMT of corn out of auction (1.7MMT total so far this season). 

·        
China imported 370,000 tons of pork during May, up 86 percent from the previous year, and 640,000 tons of corn, down 15 percent.

·        
The EU lowered their import tariff on corn to 4.65/euros per ton, a 55 percent decrease, after it was increased in April from depressed landed import corn prices. 

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 32,000 at 811,000 barrels (837-921 range) from the previous week and stocks to decrease 14,000 barrels to 21.332 million.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • None
    reported

 

 

 

Updated
6/18/
20
(near the range low)

·       
September corn is seen in a $3.25 and $3.50 range over the short term.  December lows could reach $2.90 if US weather cooperates. 

 

Soybean
complex
.

  • CBOT
    soybeans
    ended
    1.25 cents lower for the July position and 4.25 cents lower for the September.  Nearby soybean spreads are very firm.  We think it’s due in part to lack of CBOT registrations, lack of US producer selling allowing for crushers to bid up soybeans, large 2020
    US crop prospects and forward 2021 pricing by Brazilian producers. 
  • July
    meal was down $0.20 and July soybean oil off 18 points.  BON/BOQ spreads were active.  2000 were sold -20 around 12:20. 

  • Higher
    USD limited downside risk. 
  • USDA
    under the 24-hour reported private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020-21 marketing year.
  • China
    state owned crushers price checked US PNW soybeans on Monday while it was thought a private crusher covered 3 cargoes for Q4 shipment-2 US and 1 Brazil. 

·        
US soybean conditions fell 2 points to 70 percent, one point below trade expectations.  96 percent of the soybean crop had been planted.