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Earlier
it was a lower

trade across the soybean complex and grains on improving US weather for the second week of the forecast and follow through selling in soybean oil. Wheat turned to trade mostly higher, perhaps on spreading against corn, short covering and renewed Black Sea
grain deal concerns. Soybean oil rallied late in the day to trade higher while meal saw a correction after rallying yesterday. Soybeans and corn made a slight recovery from session lows, but those markets ended sharply lower. The midday GFS model run didn’t
appear as wet for the WCB for the July 1-3 period. The morning forecast didn’t offer too much in the way of overall changes. Warmer than expected temperatures are seen for Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. China is on holiday, returning Monday.

 

Fund
estimates as of June 22 (net in 000)

 

Weather

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7-day

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World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Central
    France received some welcome rain overnight with 1.00 to 2.83  inches resulting in a band across the middle of the nation

 Rain
from France will move to Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Poland over the next few days bringing some “temporary” relief from persistent dryness

    • More
      rain will be needed after many weeks of limited precipitation and recent warm weather
      • Short
        term relief is likely, but follow up rain will be necessary
    • Another
      full week of drying is expected after the rain ends returning “some” crop moisture stress to “some: crop areas
    • No
      excessive heat is expected anytime soon
  • China
    crop areas north of the Yellow River into Mongolia will experience net drying and warm temperatures over the next couple of weeks
    • Some
      crop stress should be expected in unirrigated areas
      • Sugarbeets,
        spring wheat, corn and other crops will be impacted, although this is not a major grain production region
    • Note:
      The GFS model is much wetter in this region than the European model and a close watch on the forecast in the next few days is warranted for signs of change 
  • Southern
    China may become excessively wet in the next couple of weeks resulting in a threat to early rice that is maturing and being harvested
    • Grain
      quality declines are likely along with harvest delays
    • Sugarcane
      in the region will also be negatively impacted along with minor corn and groundnut crops
  • East-central
    China may trend wetter in the last days of June and early July
  • Xinjiang,
    China crop weather has been much improved in recent weeks and little change is expected
    • Northeastern
      production areas will see a little thundershower activity and slightly cooler conditions in the week ahead while western production areas remain dry with seasonable temperatures 
  • India’s
    wetter biased weather expected over the weekend and through most of next week will seriously improve soil moisture for many areas from parts of Chhattisgarh through Madhya Pradesh to Rajasthan
    • Poor
      rainfall will continue from Maharashtra to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, although at least some rain is expected
      • Rice,
        sugarcane and a host of other crops in the west-central and far southern parts of the nation will need greater rain
  • Western
    Thailand continues to receive much less than usual rainfall, although some rain does occur periodically
    • Low
      water supply remains a concern and rice, corn and sugarcane among many other crops are not developing as well as usual
    • Not
      much change in the pattern is expected for a while
  • Another
    dismal day of rainfall was noted across Indonesia and Malaysia Wednesday
    • This
      week’s precipitation has been more sporadic and lighter than usual and a big boost in rainfall is needed to protect long term soil moisture and crop development potentials
  • Canada’s
    Prairies are still drier than desired with drought remaining in eastern and interior southern Alberta after welcome relief occurred to a part of the region this week
    • Most
      of the Prairies are getting timely rainfall and crops are expected to perform relatively well, but greater rain is needed and my not evolve until the heart of July
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains and upper Midwest will get some very important rainfall over the next week to ten days bolstering soil moisture for improved grain, oilseed and sugarbeet development
    • Dry
      bean and other crops will also improve
    • There
      will be some risk of strong thunderstorms producing hail and damaging wind
  • Excessive
    heat in Texas will prevail through the next week with some debate over whether there will be much change in the second week of the outlook      
    • Extreme
      highs of 100 to 113 degrees Fahrenheit were common across the state again Wednesday with Cotulla, Texas reaching 117
    • Similar
      temperatures are expected through Thursday of next week and any relieve that occurs after that should be brief
    • Livestock
      stress is running very high with little change likely
    • Dryland
      summer crops need significant rain soon to bolster soil moisture and reduce stress.
  • U.S.
    temperatures are unlikely to be excessively warm in the Midwest, northern Plains, or southeastern states, but a brief bout of hot weather is expected in the Delta and southwestern Corn Belt this weekend and again during mid-week next week
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn and sorghum conditions will steadily decline over the next two weeks as soil moisture is depleted
    • Southwestern
      dryland areas will be most impacted initially
    • It
      will take a while for the Texas Panhandle, southwestern Oklahoma and the northeastern Counties of West Texas to experience crop moisture stress
  • U.S.
    Midwest will experience unsettled weather during the weekend through the first week of July resulting in showers and thunderstorms
    • The
      precipitation is expected to be highly variable, but confidence is not high over generalized rain of significance for the driest areas of Illinois and neighboring states
      • With
        that said, the odds are high that least some rain will fall and short term opportunities for less stress and a little crop improvement may result
    • Forecast
      models are in relatively good agreement and because of the erratic nature of the rain be extra cautious of the potential for surprisingly good or bad rainfall in this environment
      • Future
        model runs should continue the potential unsettled part of the forecast, but there may not be much clarity over the “opportunity” for significant rain 
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience a more normal mix of rain and sunshine over the next ten days to two weeks after excessive rain fell in this past week
    • The
      region needs to dry down for a while, but the process will be slowed by some periodic rain during the next ten days
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains and Manitoba Canada along with parts of Minnesota will get dryness easing rainfall in this coming week
    • Rainfall
      of 1.00 to 3.00 inches and locally more will result which should help bolster soil moisture for improved crop development
      • Sugarbeets,
        dry beans, corn, soybeans, sunseed, wheat, barley and oats will all benefit from the moisture along with canola and many other crops
    • Soil
      moisture in these areas is very short in the top and subsoil
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat rainfall should become less frequent and less significant for a while which may help to improve crop maturation and harvest conditions in time
  • Cool
    temperatures occurred again in the Pacific Northwest today with frost noted in several areas from eastern Oregon into the upper Snake River Basin, but little to no damage resulted