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month highs were seen for many CBOT ag contract months. Soybean oil was limit lower and limits expand 50 percent (along with complex).
EPA released mandates for 2023-2025 and traders viewed the advanced biofuel as less than expected (modest increase). Some traders were looking for a 5-7% increase for advanced from the December proposal of 5.82 billion gallons. US crush margins were down sharply.
A decline in spring wheat, corn and soybean conditions underpinned those markets. Careful of the sharp increase in some of these markets. Prices tend to fall faster when fundamentals change.


crop year average update.

We took SBO for 2022-23 down about 300 points, raised meal by $5, and soybeans adjusted higher by about 25 cents.  2023-24 raised corn and soybean averages by about 25 and 15 cents, respectively, and left wheat unchanged. Adjusted new crop SBO lower and meal
about unchanged from previous. This can and will easily change as we move deeper into the summer growing season. See below.


is the official start of NA summer. US weather looks good for US wheat (PNW still dry) bias Great Plains and parts of the WCB for summer crops. It will be wet for the far ECB while the heart of the US will see net drying.  The southeastern US will see rain
through Friday and northeast areas this weekend. The central and northwestern areas have a chance for rain late this week.


EPA mandates:

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estimates as of June 21 (net in 000)




lack of rain for the Midwest is not only impacting early US crop conditions, but other industries as well. Miss. River water levels are low for this time of year. Other parts of the world are feeling the strain. The Panama Canal area is seeing its driest season
in more than a century.


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of Illinois: Dry Weather and Drought in the Midwest, Middle-June 2023

G., N. Paulson, C. Zulauf and J. Baltz. “Dry Weather and Drought in the Midwest, Middle-June 2023.”

(13):112, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, June 20, 2023.




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Weather Inc.


  • U.S.
    Midwest drier areas have a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late weekend and again in the second half of next week
    • Resulting
      rainfall will be quite varied from one location to the next, but some of the driest areas in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan will have an opportunity for some badly needed moisture
      • No
        drought busting rain is expected, but enough moisture will fall in “portions” of the dry region to allow “partial” relief to the poor pollination conditions
    • Follow
      up rain will be imperative both in higher volume and higher frequency
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will continue to deal with excessive moisture, although a brief break from the pattern is expected this weekend into early next week
    • Rain
      will fall into Friday and again late next week
      • Southern
        Georgia, northern Florida and areas west into southern Mississippi have been most impacted by heavy rain recently
        • Crops
          in Georgia and the Carolinas will be wettest through Friday while drying occurs in the Delta and interior southeastern crop areas
        • These
          areas will trend wetter again along with Alabama next in the first week of July after a few days of drying this weekend and early next week
  • U.S.
    temperatures are unlikely to be excessively warm in the Midwest, northern Plains, or southeastern states, but excessive heat will impact Texas periodically
  • Hot
    temperatures in Texas Tuesday sent afternoon readings into the range of 100 to 115 degrees Fahrenheit and similar temperatures are expected for at least the next ten days and probably for two weeks
    • Crop
      and livestock stress is already rising and will continue high through the forecast period
    • Unirrigated
      crops will suffer most from the heat and dryness
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn and sorghum conditions will steadily decline over the next two weeks as soil moisture is depleted
    • Southwestern
      dryland areas will be most impacted initially
    • It
      will take a while for the Texas Panhandle, southwestern Oklahoma and the northeastern Counties of West Texas to experience crop moisture stress
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains and Manitoba Canada along with parts of Minnesota will get dryness easing rainfall in this coming week
    • Rainfall
      of 1.00 to 2.00 inches and locally more will result which should help bolster soil moisture for improved crop development
      • Sugarbeets,
        dry beans, corn, soybeans, sunseed, wheat, barley and oats will all benefit from the moisture along with canola and many other crops
    • Soil
      moisture in these areas is very short in the top and subsoil
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat rainfall should become less frequent and less significant for a while which may help to improve crop maturation and harvest conditions in time
  • Cool
    temperatures occurred again in the Pacific Northwest today with frost noted in several areas from eastern Oregon into the upper Snake River Basin, but little to no damage resulted
  • Mexico’s
    drought will last another week to ten days
    • There
      is evidence of developing monsoonal rainfall in the second week of the forecast
  • Central
    America rainfall has been timely recently and mostly good for crops, although many areas are still reporting lighter than usual
  • Drought
    continues to impact Gatlin lake and the Panama Canal shipments with little change likely in future weeks/months
  • Tropical
    Storm Bret was 505 miles east of the Windward islands at 1200 GMT today moving westerly at 16 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 60 mph out 60 miles from the storm center
    • Bret
      will move across the Lesser Antilles late Thursday and will begin to weaken in the Caribbean Sea during the latter part of this week and into the weekend
      • The
        storm may not survive the wind shear expected over the Caribbean Sea with remnants of the storm eventually drifting into northern parts of Central America next week
  • A
    new tropical depression may form well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands later this week, but it will not be any more significant than Tropical Storm Bret and it may curve to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and dissipate without threatening
    land next week.
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will receive erratic rainfall in the coming week, but it looks as though southeastern Manitoba may get some significant rain to ease recent dryness
    • Greater
      rain is expected in the Prairies during July to further improve the moisture profile
  • Northern
    Europe is expected to trend over the next few days finally easing some persistent dryness that has lasted more than a month in some areas of Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, eastern France and western Poland
    • The
      lack of hot weather helped conserve soil moisture and protect crop development for much of that period of time
  • Widespread
    rain is expected in Russia’s eastern New Lands and neighboring areas of northern Kazakhstan in the second week of the outlook
    • Temperatures
      will be cooler than usual this week.
  • Russia’s
    northeastern New Lands have been were cool enough for frost and a few light freezes recently, but the impact on crops was minimal.