PDF Attached

 

Calls:
Higher based on crop progress

Soybeans
20-30 higher

Meal
$4-$7 higher

SBO
50-100 higher

Corn
7-13 higher

Wheat
7-15 higher

 

We
need a day or two to look at ratings and project accurate (Aug 1) US yields.  Bias is for a large SW, corn, and soybean cut. WW stable. US corn yields, what we heard earlier, are around 177 to 179 and 50.5-51.5 for soybeans. Odd trade today as profit taking
offset bull traders looking at US weather forecasts, which called for mix events for the US Midwest over the next week.

 

Reuters
covering US EPA mandates:

  • US
    EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE 2023 BIOFUEL BLENDING VOLUMES AT 20.94 BLN GALLONS, VERSUS 20.82 BLN GALLONS IN PROPOSED RULE – SOURCES
  • US
    EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE 2024 BIOFUEL BLENDING VOLUMES AT 21.54 BLN GALLONS, VERSUS 21.87 BLN GALLONS IN PROPOSED RULE – SOURCES
  • US
    EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE 2025 BIOFUEL BLENDING VOLUMES AT 22.33 BLN GALLONS, VERSUS 22.68 BLN GALLONS IN PROPOSED RULE – SOURCES
  • U.S.
    EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE ETHANOL BLENDING MANDATE AT 15.25 BILLION GALLONS FOR 2023 AND 15 BILLION GALLONS FOR 2024 AND 2025 – SOURCES
  • US
    EPA TO SET ADVANCED BIOFUEL BLENDING MANDATE AT 5.94 BILLION GALLONS IN 2023, UP FROM A PROPOSED 5.82 BILLION – SOURCES
  • US
    EPA TO SET BIOMASS-BASED DIESEL MANDATE AT 2.82 BILLION GALLONS IN 2023, UNCHANGED FROM PROPOSAL – SOURCES
  • US
    EPA TO SET BIOMASS-BASED DIESEL MANDATE AT 3.04 BILLION GALLONS IN 2024, UP FROM PROPOSED 2.89 BILLION GALLONS – SOURCES
  • US
    EPA TO SET CELLULOSIC BIOFUEL MANDATE AT 840 MILLION GALLONS IN 2023, UP FROM A PROPOSED 720 MILLION GALLONS – SOURCES
  • US
    EPA TO SET BIOMASS-BASED DIESEL MANDATE AT 3.35 BLN GALLONS IN 2025, UP FROM PROPOSED 2.95 BLN GALLONS – SOURCES

 

Slight
increase in overall mandates can be read both ways. We will make no changes to our US balance sheets for corn and soybean oil. Perhaps some that bought into soybean oil last week looking for a higher advanced mandate may claw back on positions.

 

(Reuters)
– The Biden administration plans to increase the amount of biofuels that oil refiners must blend into the nation’s fuel mix in 2023, 2024 and 2025, but the plan includes reducing mandates for corn-based ethanol from proposed levels, two sources familiar with
the matter told Reuters. The Environmental Protection Agency plans to finalize biofuel blending volumes at 20.94 billion gallons in 2023, 21.54 billion gallons in 2024 and 22.33 billion gallons in 2025, the sources said. The EPA is expected to announce the
final rule on Wednesday. The finalized volumes include 15 billion gallons of conventional biofuels like corn-based ethanol in 2023, 2024 and 2025, which represents a decline from a December proposal and is likely to cause consternation among biofuels groups
and farmers. In 2023, however, the EPA plans to include 250 million gallons of “supplemental standard.” The EPA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

 

 

US
WINTER WHEAT – 38 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 38 PCT WK AGO (30 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
SPRING WHEAT – 51 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 60 PCT WK AGO (59 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
RICE – 70 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 67 PCT WK AGO (72 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
CORN – 55 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 61 PCT WK AGO (70 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
COTTON – 47 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 49 PCT WK AGO (40 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
SOYBEAN – 54 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 59 PCT WK AGO (68 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
COTTON – 89 PCT PLANTED VS 81 PCT WK AGO (94 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
RICE – 99 PCT EMERGED VS 94 PCT WK AGO (97 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SOYBEANS – 92 PCT EMERGED VS 86 PCT WK AGO (81 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
CORN – 96 PCT EMERGED VS 93 PCT WK AGO (94 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SPRING WHEAT – 98 PCT EMERGED VS 90 PCT WK AGO (95 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
WINTER WHEAT – 94 PCT HEADED VS 89 PCT WK AGO (93 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SPRING WHEAT – 10 PCT HEADED (2 PCT YR) (10 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
RICE – 6 PCT HEADED (5 PCT YR) (4 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
WINTER WHEAT – 15 PCT HARVESTED VS 8 PCT WK AGO (20 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 19 PCT SQUARING VS 11 PCT WK AGO (21 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 3 PCT SETTING BOLLS (5 PCT YR) (4 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

 

US
corn yields, what we heard, are around 177 to 179 and 50.5-51.5 for soybeans.
Odd
trade today as profit taking offset bull traders looking at US weather forecasts, which called for mix events for the US Midwest over the next week.

 

Fund
estimates as of June 20 (net in 000)

 

 

Weather

7-day

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with low confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • No
    unusual warmth is expected in key U.S. Midwest crop areas during the next two weeks which should help to conserve soil moisture through less aggressive drying
  • U.S.
    Midwest precipitation will be restricted for another week to ten days, although totally dry weather is not expected for all crop areas
    • Showers
      that occur will be brief and light from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas through portions of Missouri and Iowa to Illinois, northern Indiana and parts of Michigan
      • Rainfall
        in the week will be 0.05 to 0.50 inch with a few totals of 0.75 inch or greater
      • Net
        drying is expected, despite the showers, but without hot temperatures the drying rates will be relatively slow, but still threatening for the areas with little to no soil moisture
    • Crop
      stress will continue in the driest areas of the Midwest and the urgency for rain will remain high in some areas to prevent or stop the potential for declining yields
  • Some
    increase in U.S. Midwest shower and thunderstorm activity is possible next week offering a little more potential relief from recent drying
  • World
    Weather, Inc. still does not see U.S. Midwest drought like that of 2012
    • Areas
      of dryness will pull back nationwide yields but the situation will not be nearly as bad as that of 2012
    • Temperatures
      should not be excessively warm and showers will occur periodically to prevent a worst case scenario from emerging
    • Dryness
      remains serious in a number of Midwestern locations, despite weekend rainfall
  • U.S.
    weather occurred mostly as expected during the weekend, although parts of central Iowa were a little wetter than expected
  • U.S.
    eastern Midwest was dry during the weekend – areas from central Illinois and eastern Wisconsin to Michigan and northern Ohio
    • Eastern
      portions of the Dakotas and some western Minnesota locations experienced net drying as well along with parts of eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and interior eastern Kansas
  • Rainfall
    during the Friday through Monday period was greatest from “portions” of Missouri, eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska through Iowa to portions of Minnesota , western Wisconsin and far western Illinois
    • Amounts
      were quite varied with some central Iowa locations getting 1.00 to 2.30 inches while most amounts varied from 0.35 to 1.26 inches
    • Light
      rainfall of 0.15 to 0.60 inch was common with numerous pockets over 1.00 inch
    • The
      moisture was welcome, but many areas still need more moisture
  • West
    Texas, the Texas Blacklands, Coastal Bend and South Texas were dry and very warm to hot
    • Central
      Texas thunderstorms produced 0.20 to 1.39 inches of rain
    • Temperatures
      in central and southern Texas were 100 to 116 degrees with Cotulla and Laredo, Texas hottest
      • Crop
        and animal stress occurred from southern parts of West Texas to the Texas Coastal Bend and all of South Texas
  • Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms occurred in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas Friday through Sunday with 0.30 to 1.00 inch with many amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches
    • Seibert,
      Colorado (east-central) reported 3.27 inches of rain
    • Many
      1.00- to 2.64-inch amounts of rain were noted east-central Colorado
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains rainfall was scattered and mostly light
  • Manitoba,
    Canada was mostly dry during the weekend while 45% of Saskatchewan received up to 0.72 inch with one location getting 1.00 inch
  • Cool
    temperatures occurred in the Pacific Northwest during the weekend with frost noted in several areas, but little to no damage resulted
    • The
      Yakima Valley and northeastern Oregon were coldest