PDF Attached

 

Attached
is our US soybean balance with updated 2021 yield.  Today is/was a US Federal Holiday and CFTC’s Commitment of Traders will be delayed until Monday. 

 

 

 

Weather

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1-7
DAY

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WORLD
WEATHER INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY

  • Western
    Russia, western Kazakhstan and far eastern Ukraine will dry down over the next ten days to possibly two weeks and temperatures will become warmer than usual

o  
Soil moisture in this region is mostly rated good today except in western Kazakhstan and eastern most parts of Russia’s Southern Region where dryness is already a problem

      • This
        region, however, is not large enough in size (yet) to have much influence on the market place
  • Eastern
    Russia’s New Lands and northeastern Kazakhstan spring wheat and sunseed areas will continue to get some relief from recent dry and warm weather

o  
Scattered showers and cooler weather is expected and crops should respond well

o  
Western parts of northern Kazakhstan and southwestern parts of the eastern New Lands of Russia will continue to experience limited rainfall and the pressure will remain on for some of the yields in this region

  • Gujarat,
    India received some needed rain Thursday and additional rain is coming that will improve the outlook for soybeans, groundnuts and cotton
  • Other
    areas in western India will continue to experience limited rainfall and net drying

o  
Watch grain, cotton and oilseeds in central Maharashtra as well as sugarcane from that region into Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh due to expected below average rainfall and warm temperatures for a while

o  
Eastern India soil and crop conditions are still rated favorably with little change likely

  • East-central
    China is back to a drying bias that will last at least ten days

o  
Recent rain has soil moisture ideally rated which should reduce concern over the drying bias for a while

  • Other
    areas in China will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine through the next ten days
  • Australia
    weather is also expected to be well mixed with periods of rain and sunshine supporting improved wheat, barley and canola planting and establishment

o  
South Australia, Queensland, northwestern Victoria and parts of western New South Wales have been driest and still have the greatest need for more moisture.

  • No
    changes in South America were noted overnight

o  
Argentina still has need for a little more rain in wheat areas, but recent dry weather has planting and early crop development advancing relatively well

  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha cotton continues to suffer from minimal moisture
  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha corn is maturing and being harvested in a mostly good environment
  • There
    is no risk of frost or freezes in Brazil’s coffee, grain, sugarcane or citrus production areas for at least the next ten days
  • Portions
    of Canada’s Southern Prairies are still lacking soil moisture and will experience restricted rain in this coming week, despite cooler temperatures

o  
Some forecast models are advertising greater rain in the last days of June, but confidence is low

o  
Additional warm and dry weather is expected later in July and August keeping the pressure on crops in the region

  • Cooling
    in eastern Canada’s Prairies this weekend into early next week could bring some patches of soft frost, but crop damage is not likely unless temperatures get colder than advertised

 

  • Southeastern
    Canada’s corn, soybean and wheat conditions remain favorably rated, although a little more rain might be welcome
  • U.S.
    Midwest rainfall and cooler biased conditions in the next two weeks will be of great interest

o  
World Weather, Inc. believes some of the rainfall advertised is a little overdone, but many areas will get precipitation often enough to prevent any declines in crop conditions outside of the far west

o  
Far western fringes of the Corn Belt may not receive much high volume rainfall, but some showers and cooling is expected

o  
Relief from recent heat and moisture stress is expected in some western Corn Belt locations, but big soakings of rain are not likely

  • Longer
    range outlook keeps the northern Plains and upper Midwest along with portions of southern Canada’s Prairies with limited rainfall and warm biased temperatures

o  
The lower eastern Midwest will likely be far enough removed from dryness in the Plains to experience ongoing favorable crop development potential

  • U.S.
    central Plains and southwestern states experienced hot temperatures Thursday and the heat will slowly recede to the southwest over the next few days

o  
Extreme highs reached 108 Fahrenheit at Hill City, Kansas while reaching the 115 to 123-degree range in the southwestern desert areas

o  
The hottest conditions will be mostly from the southern Plains into the southwestern desert region through the weekend

  • Cooling
    in the central and eastern United States will be most significant this weekend and next week at which time temperatures will be well below average

o  
The cool off will come with some needed rain will be good for summer crops by reducing evaporation, lifting topsoil moisture conserving soil moisture through slower drying rates

o  
Northwestern and west-central parts of the Corn Belt will not get as much rain as other areas in the Midwest and that will leave them vulnerable to returning crop stress in July when temperatures are warmer once again and rainfall
is further diminished

  • U.S.
    Delta weather will continue improve as the developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico takes a path more to the east of that predicted Wednesday

o  
Flood damage to crops in southern Arkansas and parts of central and interior northern Mississippi was notable in a few areas last weekend and drier weather is expected to be welcome in the coming week

o  
A few showers will set back the drying trend as frontal system moves into the Delta early next week

  • U.S.
    southeastern states will mostly benefit from the moisture coming from the tropical cyclone and two frontal systems that follow it during the next ten days

o  
Too much rain is expected from southeastern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and far western parts of the Florida Panhandle into northern Georgia

      • Crop
        damage is not likely to be very great unless the storm becomes more intense than expected
  • Tropical
    Storm Claudette will evolve in the central Gulf of Mexico later today, but the system will race inland Saturday from southeastern Louisiana into southern Alabama producing 3.00 to more than 8.00 inches of rainfall and inducing some flooding

o  
Damage from the system is not expected to be very great

o  
Not much damaging wind expected

o  
Flooding will be the greatest concern

o  
Rain will also occur northeast into northern Georgia

  • West
    Texas will not see much precipitation for a while, but there are chances for rain evolving periodically in the next ten days that may bring some temporary relief from recent warm to hot temperatures and dry conditions.

o  
Most of the resulting rain will not counter evaporation and net drying will continue

  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will not be seriously impacted by showers and thunderstorms that pop up next week when cooling is greatest in the region.

o  
Harvest progress will advance around the precipitation.

  • Drought
    in the far western U.S. is not expected to change through the end of June

o  
Monsoonal precipitation from Mexico should begin to stream into the southwestern desert region and southern Rocky Mountains during the second and third weeks in July

  • Rain
    is still needed for unirrigated winter crops in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, although it is quickly getting too late for much benefit

o  
Most spring and summer crops are irrigated and water supply is sufficient for that purpose

  • Eastern
    France, Germany, Poland and areas south into northern Italy and Slovenia and north to Scandinavia will be warmer than usual for another day and then cooling is expected from west to east across the continent

o  
Rain is expected periodically across the continent favoring the west in this first seven days of the outlook and then favoring the east June 23-30

      • The
        situation looks good for most crop areas
  • Rain
    will occur erratically across Southeast Asia during the coming week.

o  
Most areas will get rain at one time or another by June 26.

      • Rainfall
        will be lighter than usual in the mainland areas of Southeast Asia and in parts of Philippines
  • West-central
    Africa rainfall will remain supportive of coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton development

o  
Some increase in rainfall frequency and intensity is expected especially near the coast

  • East-central
    Africa rainfall continues lighter than usual in Uganda, and parts of Kenya and changes are not likely to come anytime soon

o  
Any precipitation will be welcome, but greater amounts are desired

o  
Ethiopia is experiencing slowly improving rainfall in the west

  • Mexico
    rainfall will continue in southern parts of the nation over the coming week while some rain expands into the interior far west

o  
Rain should increase and advance to the north during the June 24-30 period, but it will be erratic

  • Nicaragua
    and Honduras have been drier biased for the past month still have need greater rain

o  
Some improvement is occurring and will continue over the next week

  • North
    Africa rainfall will be sporadic and light for another few days and then drier conditions are expected

o  
The precipitation is not likely to have a big impact on unharvested winter crops

  • Southern
    Oscillation Index is mostly neutral at -1.55 and the index is expected to vary in a narrow range this weekend and early next week
  • South
    Africa weather was mostly dry Thursday and little change was expected over the next ten days

o  
Winter crop establishment has been favorable in the southwest, but unirrigated areas in Free State has been a little dry and rain is needed

  • New
    Zealand rainfall during the coming week to ten days will be a little lighter than usual in South Island and near to above normal in the north

o  
Temperatures will be near to above average

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
June 18:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • China
    customs to publish trade data, including imports of corn, wheat, sugar and pork
  • World
    coffee market report by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, 3pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • USDA
    Total Milk Production

Sunday,
June 20:

  • China
    customs publishes country-wise import data for farm goods such as soybeans and corn

Monday,
June 21:

  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions — corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
  • Monthly
    MARS report on EU crop conditions
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
June 22:

  • Copersucar,
    one of Brazil’s top sugar and ethanol exporters, holds presser on the market’s outlook
  • Future
    Food-Tech’s Alternative Proteins Summit, day 1
  • OECD
    to release agricultural policy evaluation report
  • U.S.
    cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm

Wednesday,
June 23:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Future
    Food- Tech’s Alternative Proteins Summit, day 2

Thursday,
June 24:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    hogs and pigs inventory, poultry slaughter, red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
June 25:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • Malaysia
    June 1-25 palm oil export data
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Macros

Canadian
New Housing Price Index May: 1.4% (prev 1.9%)

 

Corn

 

Export
developments.

 

 

Updated
6/17/21

July
corn seen in a $5.50 and $7.00 range

September
$5.00 and $6.75

December
corn is seen in a $4.75-$7.00 range.

 

Soybeans

  • Not
    much to report from this morning other than a Reuters headline suggesting China bought at least 8 US soybean cargoes for October shipment out of the PNW.  No prices were provided.  That’s just under 500,000 tons. 
  • The
    US soybean complex ended sharply higher led by a big rebound in soybean oil after that contract closed the expanded limit lower on Thursday.  Soybeans and meal saw bull spreading.  Soybean oil was up 155 to 368 (Dec) on bear spreading. 
  • Funds
    on Friday bought an estimated net 18,000 soybean contracts, bought 6,000 soybean meal and bought 7,000 soybean oil contracts. 
  • Ironically,
    canola futures have been the hardest major oilseed market to be hit month to date, down about 14.3%.  Attached is our price performance. 
  • Some
    of the outside soybean oil related markets didn’t follow CBOT sharply lower yesterday.  China ag futures traded about 0.5%-2.7% lower.  Palm futures were up 47MYR and cash up $10/ton to $865.  Offshore values this morning were leading SBO 378 points higher
    (702 points higher for the week to date!) and meal $4.80/short ton higher ($1.10 higher for the week to date).  Note China’s Dalian Exchange started trading palm oil options. 
  • Oil
    World prices indicated US SBO Gulf as of this morning was down nearly 20% from the comparable timeframe week earlier. 
  • With
    the large break in soybean oil, some EU biodiesel end users added hedges.  We heard “A lot of blenders that were anticipating cutting blend rates in Q3 because of no discretionary blend value were able to lock in values to keep blending at B20.”  We have been
    under the impression that global vegetable oil demand will remain strong through 2021 and 2022, despite the negative US related headlines earlier this week. 
  • China
    cash crush margins eroded this week with the increase in volatility with global futures, coupled with a sharply lower imported cash price of soybeans into China.  Yet they started their new-crop US soybean buying campaign.  They tend to start buying new-crop
    around this time of year. 
  • APK-Inform:
    Ukraine 2021-22 rapeseed harvest 2.46MMT for 2021, down from 2.51 previous and 2.62 million tons in 2020. 
  • APK-Inform:
    Ukraine 2021-22 rapeseed export prices declined 10 percent from week ago to $555 to $570/ton (down about $70). 
  • Several
    Argentine maritime workers unions and the grain receivers union Urgara announced a strike action for June 18 (AgriCensus).  It will last for 24-hours, related to COVID-19 vaccines.  This might be the  4th one in three weeks, but unsure as we have
    officially lost count.  We don’t see a price implication from this strike, unlike previous strikes. 
  • (Reuters)
    – “China will issue new rules on the management of price indexes for commodities and services, it said on Thursday as the government steps up scrutiny of the country’s commodity markets and battles to contain inflation.  The measures, effective from Aug. 1,
    will standardize how price indexes are compiled and improve transparency on the release of information, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on its official WeChat account.”
  • We
    revised our US soybean yield to 51.7 from 52.7 (10-year trend) based on the latest crop rating.

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