was not an ordinary day at the office. CBOT agriculture markets tanked, especially in the soybean complex where limits were expanded. Soybean oil and corn ended limit lower. Today we may have seen some margin problems for some positions as indicated in price
changes for July soybean options. USD was sharply higher. Erasing some 2021 CBOT agriculture market gains over a one-week period was on everyone’s mind. • CME RAISES CORN FUTURES (C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 9.4 % TO $2,325 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,125 FOR JULY
RAISES SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 9.8% TO $4,500 PER CONTRACT FROM $4,100 FOR JULY 2021
chart – Jan 2021 = 100 Index
July 630 1/2
July: BON1 syn 55.92
for the soybean complex will remain unchanged for Friday but corn expands to 60. Lumber and lean hogs expansions are in place as well.
markets had huge moves or saw surprising headlines. Such as 68 Counterparties taking $755.800 Bln At Fixed-Rate Reverse Repo (prev $520.942 Bln, 53 Bidders).
weather model was wetter for the US while the European model is not as optimistic as they are much drier. The trade looks as if they are agreeing with the GFS models that put good rains across the northern half of IA, lower WI, MI and other parts of the upper
Midwest. Not all the drought areas of the WCB may see soaking rains over the next ten days, if realized. Weather will continue to drive CBOT price fluctuations for a while. Other fundamentals have been widely ignored this week.
RAINFALL PREDICTED BY DAWN THURSDAY, JUNE 24, 2021
WEATHER HIGHLIGHS FOR JUNE 17, 2021
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY
hot, dry, weather in western Kazakhstan and eastern parts of Russia’s Southern region will be closely monitored over the next few days
Highest temperatures will reach into the upper 80s and 90s Fahrenheit with hotter conditions in non-agricultural areas
The heat and dryness will slowly expand to the west and north during the weekend next week impacting the lower half of the Volga River Basin, the eastern two-thirds of Russia’s southern Region
may eventually rise over 100 degrees Fahrenheit
Dryness could last through a big part of the next two weeks
Russia’s New Lands and northern Kazakhstan spring wheat and sunseed areas will get cooling rainfall over the coming week easing long term dryness
will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next ten days benefiting wheat, barley and canola establishment and late season planting
The long term outlook for establishment has been and will continue to improve as the drier areas of South Australia, northwestern Victoria, western New South Wales and Queensland gradually receiving improving rainfall
rainfall the past two days in parts of Cordoba and San Luis helped ease dryness in some winter wheat production areas, but more rain is needed
Wheat in Argentina still in much better condition than last year because of favorable soil moisture outside of the far west.
There is need for a little light rainfall to support recently planted crop germination and emergence
Canada’s Prairies are still dry biased and need significant rain, but the outlook is drier biased for much of the coming week
Some rain “may” evolve in the last week of June
in eastern Canada’s Prairies this weekend into early next week could bring some patches of soft frost, but crop damage is not likely unless temperatures get colder than advertised
weather remains good in the bulk of central and eastern crop areas, but the outlook in the interior west and northwest is not good for much rain for a while
The situation is not a big concern for now, but if rainfall does not improve during July the situation could change
Plains and southwestern states experienced hot temperatures Wednesday and the heat will slowly recede to the southwest over the next few days
Extreme highs reached 107 Fahrenheit in western Nebraska and still reached into 100 to 118 degree range in the southwestern desert areas
The hottest conditions will be in the central and southern Plains today and mostly from the southern Plains into the southwestern desert region Friday through the weekend
in the central and eastern United States will be most significant this weekend and next week at which time temperatures will be well below average
The cool off will come with some needed rain will be good for summer crops by reducing evaporation, lifting topsoil moisture conserving soil moisture through slower drying rates
Northwestern and west-central parts of the Corn Belt will not get as much rain as other areas in the Midwest and that will leave them vulnerable to returning crop stress in July when temperatures are warmer once again and rainfall
is further diminished
rainfall will be greatest this weekend from southern Wisconsin and eastern Iowa to the Ohio River Valley where 0.50 to 1.50 inches and local totals well over 2.00 inches are possible
Rain in the last week of June may be significant in the central and northern parts of the Midwest once again with a similar amount of rain expected
Delta weather will continue improve as the developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico takes a path more to the east of that predicted Wednesday
Flood damage to crops in southern Arkansas and parts of central and interior northern Mississippi was notable in a few areas last weekend and drier weather is expected to be welcome in the coming week
A few showers will set back the drying trend as frontal system moves into the Delta early next week
southeastern states will mostly benefit from the moisture coming from the tropical cyclone and two frontal systems that follow it during the next ten days
Too much rain is expected from southeastern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and far western parts of the Florida Panhandle into northern Georgia
damage is not likely to be very great unless the storm become more intense than expected
cyclone development is expected in the southwestern and central Gulf of Mexico late today and tonight, but the system will race inland Friday into Saturday from southeastern Louisiana into southern Alabama producing 3.00 to more than 8.00 inches of rainfall
and inducing some flooding
Damage from the system is not expected to be very great
Not much damaging wind expected
Flooding will be the greatest concern
Texas will not see much precipitation for a while, but there are chances for rain evolving next week that may bring some temporary relief from recent warm to hot temperatures and dry conditions.
hard red winter wheat areas will not be seriously impacted by showers and thunderstorms that pop up next week when cooling is greatest in the region.
Harvest progress will advance around the precipitation.
in the far western U.S. is not expected to change through the end of June
Monsoonal precipitation from Mexico should begin to stream into the southwestern desert region and southern Rocky Mountains during the second and third weeks in July
is still needed for unirrigated winter crops in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, although it is quickly getting too late for much benefit
Most spring and summer crops are irrigated and water supply is sufficient for that purpose
rain will continue mostly in southern grain areas from Mato Grosso do Sul and parts of Sao Paulo into Rio Grande do Sul during the next two weeks
The precipitation will not harm Safrinha corn, although drying will soon be needed to support maturation and harvest progress
The rain will be very good for wheat production and potential yields are high
will cool down in Argentina over the next few days and again next week with some cooling in southern Brazil during the latter days of June, but there is very little risk of frost or freezes in corn, sugarcane, citrus or coffee areas of Brazil for the coming
rainfall will be lighter than usual in most of the nation over the next ten days except in Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Madhya Pradesh, northeastern Chhattisgarh and West Bengal where amounts will be greater than usual
Crop conditions and planting prospects will be good in the central and east, but concern about moisture shortages in the interior west will slowly rise
rain will occur along the immediate west coast, but will not reach far enough inland to benefit many crop areas
France, Germany, Poland and areas south into northern Italy and Slovenia and north to Scandinavia will be warmer than usual for another day or two and then cooling is expected from west to east across the continent
Rain is expected periodically across the continent favoring the west in this first seven days of the outlook and then favoring the east June 23-30
situation looks good for most crop areas
will occur erratically across Southeast Asia during the coming week.
Most areas will get rain at one time or another by June 23.
will be lighter than usual in the mainland areas of Southeast Asia and in parts of Philippines
Africa rainfall will remain supportive of coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton development
Some increase in rainfall frequency and intensity is expected especially near the coast
Africa rainfall continues lighter than usual in Uganda, and parts of Ethiopia and changes are not likely to come anytime soon
Any precipitation will be welcome, but greater amounts are desired
rainfall will continue in southern parts of the nation over the coming week while some rain expands into the interior far west
Rain should increase and advance to the north during the June 23-29 period
and Honduras have been drier biased for the past month still have need greater rain
Some improvement is occurring and will continue over the next week
Africa rainfall will be sporadic and light for another few days and then drier conditions are expected
The precipitation is not likely to have a big impact on unharvested winter crops
Oscillation Index is mostly neutral at -1.411and the index is expected to continue rising into the weekend
Africa weather was mostly dry Tuesday and little change was expected over the next ten days
Winter crop establishment has been favorable in the southwest, but unirrigated areas in Free State has been a little dry and rain is needed
Zealand rainfall during the coming week to ten days will be a little lighter than usual in South Island and near to above normal in the north
Temperatures will be near to above average
World Weather, Inc.
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
of Rouen data on French grain exports
webinar on agribusiness outlook, Sao Paulo, Brazil
oilseed conference, Chengdu, China, Day 2
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
customs to publish trade data, including imports of corn, wheat, sugar and pork
coffee market report by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, 3pm
weekly update on crop conditions
Total Milk Production
Bloomberg and FI
export sales were on the low side for many of the major commodities, but good meal shipments may provide a positive undertone for that commodity coupled by unwinding of oil/meal spreads. Soybean sales were only 65,300 tons, within expectations, and not a
surprise as commitments is running 99 percent of USDA’s projection. Corn sales of 18,000 old crop and 276,100 tons new crop were poor. All-wheat sales cooled last week to 287,100 tons from 325,900 tons, negative in our opinion. Soybean meal sales improved
to 177,300 tons and shipments were 199,000. Soybean oil commitments were only 2,300 tons and shipments were off from the previous week at 8,000 tons. We look for sales to improve next week amid break in futures prices.
Counterparties taking $755.800 Bln At Fixed-Rate Reverse Repo (prev $520.942 Bln, 53 Bidders).
Initial Jobless Claims Jun 12: 412K (est 360K; prevR 375K; prev 376K)
Continuing Claims Jun 5: 3518K (est 3425K; prevR 3517K; prev 3499K)
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jun: 30.7 (est 31.0; prev 31.5)
International Security Transactions Apr: 9.95B (prevR 4.12B; prev 3.25B)
corn futures ended limit lower on a wetter outlook by GFS model for the western Corn Belt and upper Midwest along with a sharply lower soybean complex (we get into more details in that section). European model remains drier than that of the GFS. Rain prospects
continue to improve for Iowa, southern Minn and the ECB. The GFS models show up to 5-10” rain in Iowa over the next 10 days.
RAISES CORN FUTURES (C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 9.4 % TO $2,325 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,125 FOR JULY 2021
price movements make us wonder if the traditional fundamentals getting algo’d out.
was up sharply higher. The US Fed signaled interest rates could creep higher.
much news developed for the corn market.
noted US merchant refiners racked up a shortfall of 1.6 billion dollars in biofuel credits. This comes after Delta airlines was said to have refused to buy biofuel credits, reported last month. We think end users expect the new administration to provide
relief for refiners.
sold an estimated net 30,000 corn contracts on Thursday.
this morning RIN prices were stable, around 130 D6 and 140 D4.
are using the 30-year trend of 177.3 to forecast the August 1 corn crop yield. The 10 year is 185.2. Based on the latest FI adjusted corn crop rating we estimate the US August corn yield at 179.5 bushels per acre, same as USDA. This will likely be lowered
over the next few weeks if US corn condition continue to decline. US corn supply estimates below.