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  • U.S. crop weather remains mostly good and should stay that way through the next ten days. Southeastern Canada’s crop conditions will remain mostly good. Canola in Canada’s Prairies varies from being too wet in the west to too dry in the east. Some relief to the Prairies weather will occur over the next two weeks with less rain in the west and more in the east for a little while.
  • India’s planting weather for coarse grain and oilseeds will be good over the next couple of weeks. Relief to dryness in east-central China last week has improved summer crop prospects in some areas. However, net drying in parts of the North China Plain and northern Yellow River Basin this week will raise unirrigated crop stress. Flooding in rapeseed areas recently may have reduced crop quality and certainly delayed harvesting.
  • Australia’s weather will be favorable for canola areas over the next ten days. South Africa’s western canola benefited from some rain during the weekend, but more is needed.
  • Argentina’s harvest has advanced well recently and will continue to move forward around periods of rain. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing, although some late season filling occurred while dryness prevailed resulting in greater worry over late season yield and quality declines. Brazil’s weather has not been seriously impacting late season crops, but some small impact is expected.
  • Europe weather is trending sufficiently wet to improve many crops. Net drying from the Volga River Basin into Kazakhstan could harm some summer coarse grain and oilseed crops if the trends last deeply into the summer.
  • Overall, weather will likely have a bearish bias to market mentality because of anticipated better weather.



  • Periodic rain in Canada’s Prairies and eventually in the U.S. northern Plains will bring a little improvement to small grain crops, but more rain will be needed. Eastern and far south-central Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba are still quite dry along with western North Dakota and eastern Montana. Additional opportunity for rain will evolve later this week for some of the drier areas. In the meantime, parts of Alberta are still too wet and will stay that way for a while this week.
  • Quebec and eastern Ontario crop conditions will be mostly good over the next ten days.
  • Good harvest weather is expected in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and a favorable environment for late season filling will occur in Nebraska, northern Kansas as well as across the Midwest this week. Wetter conditions next week could interfere with some farming activity.
  • Europe weather will be mostly good for winter crops, although there may be some need for drier weather in early maturing crop areas to protect small grains from wet weather disease. Drying from the Volga River Basin into Kazakhstan may be a threat to unirrigated winter crops, but most of the region’s crops are still rated favorably today. Spring wheat areas in the eastern Russia New Lands are also experiencing mostly favorable conditions, but some rain is needed near the Kazakhstan border.
  • China’s southern wheat quality may be slipping because of recent heavy rainfall. Drier weather will be slow to return and that may prolong harvest delays and concern over grain quality.
  • Australia’s recent rain was good for improving establishment for wheat and barley across the nation, although more rain is still needed in many areas.
  • South Africa recent rain in the far west was welcome, but rain is needed in other winter crop production areas. Rain coming up in Argentina during mid-week this week will be a tremendous help for wheat germination and emergence.
  • Overall, weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source: World Weather Inc. and FI


WPC 5-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast


Bloomberg Ag Calendar

THURSDAY, June 18:

  • USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • Brazil Conab releases 2nd estimate for 2020 coffee crop, Sao Paulo
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA total milk production, 3 pm

FRIDAY, June 19:

  • ICE Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S. Cattle on Feed, 3pm

SATURDAY, June 20:

  • Malaysia’s palm oil export data for June 1-20

Source: Bloomberg and FI




OPEC Says It Output Fell By 6.3Mln B/D To 24.195Mln B/D Last Month

US Housing Starts (May): 974K (est 1.1Mln, prevR 934K)

US Housing Starts (May) M/M: 4.3% (est 23.5%, prevR -26.4%)

Canada CPI NSA (M/M) May: 0.3% (est 0.7%, prev -0.7%)

Canada CPI (Y/Y) May: -0.4% (est prev 0.0%, prev -0.2%)

CPI Core – Median (Y/Y) May: 1.9% (est 1.9%, prev 2%)

CPI Core – Common (Y/Y) May: 1.4% (est 1.6%, prev 1.6%)

CPI Core Trim (Y/Y) May: 1.7% (est 1.7%, prev 1.8%)


US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 12-Jun: 1215K (est 130K; prev 5720K)

– Distillate Oil Inventories (W/W) 12-Jun: -1358K (est 3000K; prev 1568K)

– Cushing OK Crude Inventories (W/W) 12-Jun: -2608K (prev -2279K)

– Gasoline Inventories (W/W) 12-Jun: -1666K (est -750K; prev 866K)

– Refinery Utilization (W/W) 12-Jun: 0.70% (est 0.50%; prev 1.30%)


USDA Cattle on Feed Survey

All figures, except headcount, for feedlots with 1,000-plus head of cattle shown as percentage vs year ago:



Mln head

On feed June 1




Placements in May




Marketings in May




Source: Reuters and FI



·         Corn increased today on the EIA report which showed increasing production.  Weighing on corn today was wheat and great weather across the Corn Belt.  

·         Funds were net buyers of 6,000 corn contracts on the session.

·         China corn futures remain near a 5-year high despite corn reserve sales, a signal large imports from Ukraine and potentially from the US could be on deck during the 2020-21 marketing year, dependent on the size of this year’s domestic crop. 

·         China looks to sell 4 million tons of mostly 2015 crop-year corn from reserves on Thursday.  Sinograin will offer 663,000 tons from the 2016 harvest. 

·         USDA May Cattle on Feed survey is calling for a 26.1% drop in marketings as meat plants slowed due to COVID-19.

·         USTR Lighthizer told lawmakers today that the US will “act early and often” to enforce the USMCA which takes effect on July 1. 

·         China fertilizer production was seen at 4.97 million tons, down 2 percent year over year. 

·         Uzbekistan plans to buy over 3 million tons of grain for state reserves.  This will be bought from the domestic market. 

·         Japan imported 2.105 million tons of grain during May, 3.6 percent higher than year earlier.



Corn Export Developments

  • Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65,000 tons of Brazilian corn at 141.77 cents over the December contract for October 2-21 shipment.



US ethanol production increased 4,000 barrels per day to 841,000.  The trade was looking for a 39,000 barrel increase.  Stocks decreased 456,000 barrels to 21.346 million, much larger than the 78,000 barrels the trade expected.  Production is up 7 consecutive weeks and stocks have now fallen 8 consecutive weeks.  Gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels. 







Updated 6/17/20

·        July corn is seen in a $3.15 and $3.30 range.  December lows could reach $2.90 if US weather cooperates. 


Soybean complex.


Oilseeds Export Developments

  • Egypt’s GASC seeks 3,000 tons of soybean oil and 2,000 tons of sunflower oil for Aug 10-30 shipment. 
  • Syria will retender for 50,000 tons of soymeal and 50,000 tons of corn on June 24 for delivery within four months of contract.








Updated 6/15/20

  • July soybeans are seen in a $8.44-$8.85 range. 
  • July soybean meal is seen in a $280 to $310 range. 
  • July soybean oil range is seen in a 27.00 to 28.25 range



  • US wheat fell to an 8-month low on continued US harvest pressure and improving EU weather. Europe saw needed rainfall which weighed on wheat overnight.
  • To some macro traders, wheat has been the short leg of trades over the last quarter and that may have continued today versus soybeans. 
  • Funds were net sellers of 7,000 net wheat contracts. 
  • The German association of farm cooperatives projected the 2020 wheat production down 3.7% percent to 22.21 million tons, slightly below 22.38 million tons estimated in May.  Recent widespread rains boosted crop production prospects. 
  • Russia’s AgMin sees the 2020 grain crop at 122.5 million tons, including 75 million tons of wheat.  This is up from 120 million tons previously.  Russia produced 121.2 million tons of grain in 2019.  The AgMin sees 2020-21 grain exports at 45 million tons. 
  • Ukraine suspended its twice a week report updating the trade on grain export shipments, something widely watched as it could impact futures prices. Last update was June 5.  But the trade already knows Ukraine grain exports will end up a record for 2019-20 and remain a powerhouse in 2020-21. 
  • Paris December closed unchanged at 182.50.


Export Developments.

  • Egypt’s GASC seeks 60,000 tons or more of wheat for July 25 to Aug 5 shipment.
  • Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of wheat for November-December shipment.
  • Thailand bought 60,000 tons out of 240,000 tons of feed wheat sought, optional origin, for Aug-Oct shipment. The 60,000 tons of wheat was bought at $216.50/ton.  They are also in for feed barley. 
  • Tunisia seeks 176,000 tons of optional origin soft wheat on Thursday for August shipment. 
  • Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 10 for shipment within two months.    
  • Japan received no offers for 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by November 26.  They will retender on the 24th
  • Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on June 24 for arrival by November 26. 
  • Japan seeks 76,143 tons of food wheat from the US and Australia this week. 

  • Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 88,815 tons of US milling wheat on June 19.  One consignment of 39,300 tons is sought for shipment between Aug. 10 and Aug. 24 while a second of 49,515 tons is sought for shipment between Aug. 26 and Sept. 9. (Reuters)



  • South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries and Food Corp seeks 80,605 tons of non-glutinous rice for October 2020 and March 2021 shipment.


            90     Milled Long   Thailand  Oct 31,2020/Busan

         1,410     Milled Long   Thailand  Oct 31,2020/Busan

        20,000     Brown Short   China     Jan 31,2021/Gunsan

        20,000     Brown Short   China     Jan 31,2021/Ulsan

        20,000     Brown Short   China     March 31,2021/Donghae

        19,105     Brown Short   China     March 31,2021/Mokpo






Updated 6/17/20

  • Chicago July is seen in a $4.85-$5.15 range
  • KC July $4.30-$4.45
  • MN July $5.00-$5.25 





Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366


AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM:  treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly


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