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US
Markets will reopen Monday night. USD was up 19 points and WTI $1.06 higher.
Another
strong rally in CBOT ags on follow through buying from a dry US & EU weather outlook, good US demand and ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns. Temperatures will considerably warm up bias the southern US over the next week. Many CBOT future contracts made multi-month
highs today. Soybean meal rallied over soybean oil from profit taking in the oil share. Spreading was very active, especially in corn with traders getting out of the July position.
Fund
estimates as of June 16 (net in 000)
WEATHER
TO WATCH
-
Excessive
rain fell overnight in northern Florida and along the southern border of Georgia resulting in flooding -
Rain
amounts of 2.75 to 5.93 inches occurred most often with 7.60 inches at Cherry Lake, Florida and 9.84 inches at Pensacola, Fla.
-
Other
rain totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches occurred from east-central Mississippi through southern Georgia with a few amounts over 3.00 inches which followed heavy rain from the previous night -
Some
of these areas were drier than usual earlier this week, but are now too wet -
Additional
waves of heavy rain will occur in the Gulf of Mexico Coast States from the middle and lower Delta to Florida and Georgia over the next week to ten days resulting in excessive moisture and flooding -
Some
crop damage will be possible -
Areas
from southeastern Mississippi to the northern Florida Peninsula will be wettest with another 4.00 to 8.00 inches possible spread out over the forecast period -
Not
much rain is advertised over the next ten days from eastern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin through Illinois to Michigan, Ohio and northern Kentucky -
The
areas most likely to experience crop stress of significance will be in Illinois, eastern Iowa and immediate neighboring areas where soil moisture is already quite limited -
Excessive
rain is expected in western Alberta, Canada Sunday through Tuesday where multiple inches of rain may evolve -
Drought
will continue in east-central and southern Alberta, Canada through the next ten days with limited rainfall for at least the coming week
-
Production
cuts are likely from some of the driest areas where crops are already withering and dying -
Some
relief from dryness is expected over the coming week in the eastern Dakotas and a part of Minnesota with next week wettest -
West
Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will be dry and very warm to occasionally hot over the next ten days -
Extreme
temperatures reaching 100 to 108 are expected nearly every day in a portion of the state -
Similar
conditions are possible in the remainder of the state impacting the Blacklands, South Texas and possibly the Coastal Bend -
Livestock
and unirrigated crop stress is expected -
Ontario
and Quebec corn, soybean and wheat areas will experience mild to warm temperatures and restricted rainfall in the coming week -
Crop
conditions will remain fine -
Mexico
rainfall will continue minimal for the next ten days -
Drought
is delaying the planting of many crops and stressing sugarcane, citrus rice, cotton and coffee and other crops that are already developing -
Better
rainfall is expected in the last days of June and especially in July -
No
changes in South America weather are expected over the next ten days -
Argentina
rainfall will be limited leaving many areas from Cordoba into La Pampa and western Buenos Aires too dry for wheat emergence and establishment -
Favorable
field conditions will prevail in the eastern Argentina wheat areas due to previous rain and cool temperatures conserving the moisture through low evaporation rates -
Southern
Brazil will continue plenty wet from southern Mato Grosso do Sul to northern and eastern Rio Grande do Sul and Parana over the next ten days -
More
limited rain is expected in center south crop areas while the north is left mostly dry
-
There
is a very low risk of crop damaging cold for the next ten days in any grain, cotton, sugarcane, citrus or coffee area -
Europe
temperatures will be warmer than usual over the next ten days and showers and thunderstorms should occur periodically so that relief comes to dryness in northeastern France, Germany and neighboring countries.
-
Greater
rainfall might still be welcome throughout all of northern Europe after recent weeks of limited rain -
Unusually
cold air in Russia’s eastern New Lands this weekend and early next week will result in late season frost and freezes that may harm a few crops -
Russia’s
eastern New Lands and northern Kazakhstan may receive some needed moisture next week that could improve topsoil conditions for future wheat, sunseed and other crop development -
Tropical
Cyclone Biparjoy moved inland over northwestern Gujarat Thursday producing more than four inches through 0300 GMT, but since then there has been much greater rainfall resulting in some flooding
-
Remnants
of the storm will leave behind a swath of excessive rain varying from 3.00 to 8.00 inches with local totals to 12.00 inches from northern Gujarat, India and far southeastern Sindh, Pakistan through a large part of Rajasthan to Uttar Pradesh this weekend and
early next week -
The
moisture will cause some flooding temporarily, but the flood water should recede quickly -
Planting
of many summer crops will follow the event especially since monsoonal precipitation is quite restricted and will remain that way over this coming week -
India’s
Monsoon will attempt to kick in late next week into the early days of July, but its rain distribution may still be somewhat erratic for a while -
The
moisture boost will be extremely important for the planting of summer crops -
Thailand
rainfall continues well below normal threatening sugarcane, rice, corn and other crops especially in the west -
Little
change in this anomaly is expected for a while -
Vietnam
rainfall has been and will continue erratic and lighter than usual raising some concern for unirrigated coffee in the nation and that concern may continue for a while -
Indonesia,
Malaysia and Philippines rainfall will continue sufficient to support most crop needs over the next couple of weeks, despite a more erratic rainfall pattern -
Australia
weather has not changed overnight with showers and drizzle occurring often near the southern coast while interior crop areas see a more limited amount of moisture -
Winter
crops are establishing relatively well -
South
Africa weather will be dry or mostly dry during the coming ten days except in the far southwestern corner of the nation where some rain is expected -
Portions
of the U.S. Northern Plains will get rain periodically during the next two weeks, but resulting rainfall may not be evenly distributed -
Some
areas of moderate rain will occur while many other areas see only light amounts -
Follow
up rain will be very important -
Additional
warm to hot and dry weather is expected briefly this weekend into early next week before the next opportunity for rain arrives -
Extreme
highs in the 90s to over 100 may occur briefly in South Dakota’s dry region Sunday or Monday -
Only
partial relief to dryness is expected and much more rain will have to occur before crop conditions improve in a more general manner -
Washington’s
Yakima Valley and neighboring areas of north-central Oregon will be dry for much of the next ten days leaving a big need for rain in unirrigated crop areas -
Rainfall
in the Snake River Valley will also be limited during the coming ten days -
Showers
in much of Montana and Wyoming will be good for sugarbeets, dry beans and other crops produced in the region during the next ten days -
North
Africa’s rainy weather pattern of the past few weeks has ended -
Better
crop maturation and harvest conditions will now evolve -
Recent
wet weather has hurt the quality of some small grains -
West-central
Africa rainfall has been and will continue to be quite abundant during the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and rice development -
A
few areas have been trending a little too wet and less rain might be welcome -
Cotton
areas in Burkina Faso and Mali are trending much wetter -
East-central
Africa rainfall continues to occur routinely and mostly supports normal rice, coffee, cocoa and sugarcane development -
China’s
northern Yellow River Basin and neighboring areas of Inner Mongolia are trending drier and this pattern will prevail for a while possibly leading to crop moisture stress for wheat, coarse grains and oilseeds later this summer -
Southern
China will remain plenty wet and may become excessively wet soon -
This
will interfere with early rice maturation and harvesting with some crop quality declines possible -
Some
sugarcane areas will eventually be flooded -
Most
of the greatest rain will be south of rapeseed areas; though much of the rapeseed harvest has likely been completed -
Xinjiang,
China will experience seasonable temperatures over the next two weeks -
The
province struggled with coolness earlier this year and crop development is behind the usual pace -
Production
potentials were decreased because of some reduced area planted and due to the poor early season start to crop development -
There
is concern over early season frost and freeze potentials coming along before the crop is fully mature
-
Crop
conditions are improving because of the recent development of more seasonable temperatures -
Recent
high temperatures have been in the 90s to slightly over 100 Fahrenheit -
Australia
soil moisture is still mostly good for wheat, barley and canola emergence and establishment -
Weather
in the coming ten days will remain plenty wet in crop areas near the southern coast -
A
boost in rainfall will be needed in interior Western Australia (especially in northern crop areas) and in Queensland as well as a few interior South Australia locations -
Argentina
dryness remains a concern for Cordoba, western Buenos Aires and La Pampa while crop areas to the east have seen sufficient rain for aggressive planting and good early season emergence and establishment -
Rain
prospects are poor in Argentina for the next ten days -
Above
normal rain is expected from Mato Grosso to northern Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo, Brazil during the coming week slowing fieldwork and inducing soggy field conditions in wheat and corn areas -
There
is no risk of crop damaging cold in the next ten days -
Drier
weather is needed to protect crop conditions -
Minas
Gerais, Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro crop areas of Brazil will be wetter than usual for a brief period of time today into Sunday
-
Delays
in sugarcane, coffee and citrus harvesting is expected, but improved weather should evolve next week to limit any concerns.
-
Central
America rainfall is expected to be abundant to excessive during the next ten days possibly leading to some areas of flooding -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -12.64 and it will move erratically higher over the next several days
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Friday,
June 16:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report
Sunday,
June 18
- China’s
2nd batch of May trade data, including agricultural imports
Monday,
June 19:
- MARS
monthly report on EU crop conditions - HOLIDAY:
US, Argentina
Tuesday,
June 20:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - US
corn, cotton, soybean, spring wheat and winter wheat condition, 4pm - China’s
3rd batch of May trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities - US
planting data for cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm - New
Zealand global dairy trade auction - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - HOLIDAY:
Argentina
Wednesday,
June 21:
- Grain
and Oilseeds MENA conference in Cairo, day 1 - SIIA
Haze Outlook 2023 in Singapore - USDA
Total Milk Production
Thursday,
June 22:
- Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Grain
and Oilseeds MENA conference in Cairo, day 2 - Brazil
Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative) - USDA
Red Meat Production, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
China,
Hong Kong
Friday,
June 23:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - US
Cattle on Feed, 3pm - US
cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry - HOLIDAY:
China
EPA
U.S.
GENERATED 750 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN MAY, VS 603 MLN IN APRIL
U.S.
GENERATED 1.28 BLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN MAY, VS 1.16 BLN IN APRIL
2022
U.S.
GENERATED 513 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN MAY, VS 499 MLN IN APRIL
U.S.
GENERATED 1.23 BLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN MAY, VS 1.14 BLN IN APRIL
CFCT
Commitment of Traders
The
trade really missed it with the estimated net long position for the traditional and managed money net long position for corn.
Reuters
table
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
-63,782 47,039 318,468 15,012 -196,595 -54,214
Soybeans
27,786 28,903 109,674 1,649 -109,657 -27,190
Soyoil
-15,882 17,616 115,091 10,414 -97,118 -28,392
CBOT
wheat -102,396 4,308 74,967 943 19,721 -6,091
KCBT
wheat -10,975 -2,882 40,159 1,078 -23,643 2,418
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
2,145 46,636 233,118 -6,940 -207,452 -50,355
Soybeans
47,882 33,901 72,257 -4,988 -98,419 -19,300
Soymeal
60,608 -5,208 92,217 -194 -192,358 2,903
Soyoil
8,748 27,055 114,801 523 -126,824 -29,384
CBOT
wheat -113,430 6,044 70,792 451 17,375 -6,785
KCBT
wheat 3,616 -3,489 34,907 1,792 -26,221 1,779
MGEX
wheat -7,422 1,552 954 455 4,430 -386
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat -117,236 4,107 106,653 2,698 -4,416 -5,392
Live
cattle 119,921 5,285 49,392 935 -175,541 -5,592
Feeder
cattle 19,486 1,416 1,117 -28 -8,963 -653
Lean
hogs -4,630 11,543 50,369 -1,141 -40,428 -6,284
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
30,280 18,497 -58,090 -7,838 1,775,421 -9,951
Soybeans
6,083 -6,249 -27,802 -3,363 845,019 -9,053
Soymeal
24,497 4,433 15,036 -1,933 575,837 24,069
Soyoil
5,367 1,445 -2,092 361 607,403 -3,209
CBOT
wheat 17,555 -548 7,707 838 465,331 -23,832
KCBT
wheat -6,760 534 -5,541 -615 203,293 -8,894
MGEX
wheat 1,817 -411 221 -1,211 61,428 -1,784
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 12,612 -425 2,387 -988 730,052 -34,510
Live
cattle 24,897 3,207 -18,669 -3,833 425,594 13,750
Feeder
cattle 1,650 -192 -13,290 -543 78,384 -766
Lean
hogs -3,337 -716 -1,974 -3,402 307,580 -17,530
US
Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Jun P: 63.9 (exp 60.0; prev 59.2)
Current
Conditions: 68.0 (exp 65.1; prev 64.9)
Expectations:
61.3 (exp 55.2; prev 55.4)
1-Year
Inflation: 3.3% (exp 4.1%; prev 4.2%)
5-10
Year Inflation: 3.0% (exp 3.0%; prev 3.1%)
Canadian
Wholesale Trade Sales (M/M) Apr: -1.4% (exp 1.6%; R prev -1.1%)
Canadian
International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr: 13.52B (R prev -19.72B)
·
Corn futures were higher on follow through buying led by new crop over US dry weather.
·
Traders were busy rolling out of the July position.
-
Patria
Agronegonegocios estimated Brazil’s second corn crop was 4.3 percent harvested, below 14.7% year earlier. Corn plantings were behind this season.
·
We look for a decline in US soybean and corn ratings when updated next week, and wheat to remain steady.
·
57 percent of the US corn area is experiencing some type of drought. 45 percent was previous week.
·
Ukraine’s 2023 spring sowing is nearly done over an estimated 13 million hectares
4
million hectares of corn.
271,100
hectares of spring wheat
810,000
hectares of barley
138,500
hectares of peas
146,200
hectares of oats
5.3
million hectares of sunflower
213,100
hectares of sugar beet
1.8
million hectares of soybeans.
USDA
Attache: Ukraine grain and feed
Export
developments.
-
Results
awaited: Iran seeks 120,000 tons of soybean meal and 120,000 tons of corn.
July
corn $5.85-$6.60
September
corn $5.00-$6.75
December
corn $4.50-$7.00
·
It was all about the US weather forecast. Talk today was the forecast calling for hotter temperatures during the second week of the forecast. Up until now, the US Midwest generally saw near or below average temperatures, for the
most part.
·
51% of the US soybean production area is experiencing some type of drought as of June 13, up from 39% previous week.
·
CBOT soybeans, meal and soybean oil traded higher on follow through buying. August soybeans hit an April 24 high overnight. Soybeans and soybean oil closed slightly off their intraday session highs on light end of week profit
taking, but still near the top end the ranges.
·
Russia plans to limit sunflower seed exports until their domestic processing plants are fully loaded.
·
The NOPA crush report yesterday showed US crush and soybean oil stocks implied good domestic demand.
·
Palm oil futures were up 11 percent on the week. Sabah, Malaysia’s largest producing state of the commodity, are experiencing water stress from early signs of El Nino (Reuters).
-
Results
awaited: Iran seeks 120,000 tons of soybean meal and 120,000 tons of corn on June 14.
Soybeans
– July $14.20-$15.15, November $11.00-$15.00
Soybean
meal – July $390-$440, December $290-$450
Soybean
oil – July 58.00-62.00, December 54-64
·
US wheat futures were higher on technical buying. US & EU weather and Black Sea shipping uncertainty was a feature this week. Russia officials indicated the grain deal is “not working” but they don’t intend to end the current
deal extension early.
·
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange warned Argentina producers in the west may miss the optimum planting window from dry conditions. Plantings are 40 percent complete, 18 points below last season.
·
French wheat conditions as of June 12 fell 3 points to 85 percent and compares to 65 percent year ago.
·
Yesterday Strategie Grains lowered its 2023-24 European Union soft wheat production estimate to 128.7 million tons from 130.0 million in May, about 3% above 2022-23. Barley was cut 2 million tons to 47.9 million tons, about 6%
below last year.
·
Russia sees 2023-24 grain exports up to 60 million tons and harvest around 130 million.
·
September Paris milling wheat officially closed 3.25 euros higher, or 1.4%, at 238.75 euros a ton (about $261.25 ton).
US
Wheat Associates
noted sporadic rain across TX and OK slowed HRW wheat harvest progress while SRW wheat progress moved forward.
Export
Developments.
·
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 60,000 tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of barley on June 19 for arrival by November 30.
·
Results awaited: Morocco seeks 500,000 tons of feed barley.
Rice/Other
·
(Reuters) – Indonesian has signed an agreement with the Indian government to potentially import 1 million tons of rice if the El Nino weather pattern hits domestic supply, the trade minister was quoted as saying by news site Kompas.com
on Friday. The agreement would come on top of a 2 million tons rice import quota issued for state food procurement agency Bulog this year, Indonesian Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan was quoted as saying.
Price
outlook (6/16/23)
Chicago Wheat
July $6.50-$7.15, September $6.00-$7.00
KC – July $8.00-$8.80, September $7.50-$9.00
MN – July $8.00-$8.80, September $7.25-$9.00
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Evecom-FI061623.pdf