was wetter bias parts of the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and IA. Soybean oil was on the defensive again creating a negative undertone for soybeans. Meal was higher. US corn futures rebounded from a snap 24-USDA corn sales announcement and Brazil
opening doors to US GMO corn imports (reported by AgriCensus) along with WCB crop growing concerns. US wheat was higher as Egypt retendered. Iran is in for 60,000 tons of wheat. SK’s KFA bought 60,000 tons of corn.
price limits for hogs, pork, and entire soybean complex expands for tonight’s open.
short term GFS weather outlook also looks wetter for key summer growing states experiencing drought. Second day of the US precipitation outlook (Friday) increased rain into the upper Midwest. 1-7 day precipitation is not as wet as yesterday’s forecast.
Note the European models are drier.
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 16, 2021
weather expectations remain mostly the same as Wednesday – as far as this forecaster is concerned
is expected in much of the Midwest Corn Belt over the next ten days with western and far northern areas seeing the lightest precipitation with the most limited benefit
from eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin into Ohio may experience the greatest rainfall during this period of time
will be cool enough to reduce evaporative moisture losses and support crops favorably
the western fringes of the Corn Belt, the northern Plains and far northernmost Corn Belt may not do nearly as well with rainfall as other areas
western and northern Prairies will be in the best condition for a while, but rain will be needed in the south soon
India should be on everyone’s radar if limited rainfall prevails into July as suggested
from Gujarat and Rajasthan into Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh can be drier biased in June and not be a huge deal, but continued poor monsoon performance in July would be interpreted differently for many producers and traders following cotton, soybeans
Western India has not seen good rainfall very often this month, but it is still early
about Sukhovei conditions in western Kazakhstan, eastern portions of Russia’s Southern Region and lower Volga River Basin remains today
Sukhovei that occurs in this first week of the outlook is weak and impacts a small part of the region’s crops
real concern is over the potential for the hot, dry, wind to persist into a second week – that would result in a larger area being potentially impacted and a greater impact for those dealing with warm and dry conditions in this first week of the forecast
from dryness in southeastern Russia’s New Lands and eastern portions of northern Kazakhstan’s wheat and sunseed areas is still expected in this coming week, but western parts of the region will not get as much relief
weather is looking very good with most of the dryness from earlier this month now relieved
will see a good mix of weather during the next ten days, especially in the eat bringing support for better wheat, barley and canola establishment in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia as well as some southeastern Queensland locations
rain is still needed though in Queensland and South Australia in particular
Russia, Ukraine and Europe weather still looks to be good over the next ten days
threatening cold is expected in Brazil’s grain, sugar or coffee production areas during the next two weeks
is needed in greater quantities in east-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas
Asia weather has been mostly favorable of late and little change is expected
still needs rain in wheat production areas, although crops are in much better shape than last year
World Weather, Inc.
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
Commodities Global Summit, day 2
Abares to release agricultural commodities report
Unica may release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
oilseed conference, Chengdu, China, Day 1
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
of Rouen data on French grain exports
webinar on agribusiness outlook, Sao Paulo, Brazil
oilseed conference, Chengdu, China, Day 2
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
customs to publish trade data, including imports of corn, wheat, sugar and pork
coffee market report by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, 3pm
weekly update on crop conditions
Total Milk Production
Bloomberg and FI
Housing Starts May: 1572K (est 1630K; prevR 1517K; prev 1569K)
Housing Starts (M/M) May: 3.6% (est 3.9%; prevR -12.1%; prev -9.5%)
Building Permits May: 1681K (est 1730K; prevR 1733K; prev 1760K)
Building Permits (M/M) May: -3.0% (est -0.2%; prevR -1.3%; prev 0.3%)
Housing Market Needs 5.5Mln More Units, Says New Report – CNBC
DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 11-Jun: -7355K (est -2500K; prev -5241K)
Distillate Inventories: -1023K (est 500K; prev 4412K)
Cushing Crude Inventories: -2150K (prev 165K)
Gasoline Inventories: 1954K (est -1000K; prev 7046K)
Refinery Utilization: 1.30% (est 0.25%; prev 2.60%)
corn futures ended higher while the back months ended lower. Corn started higher after USDA announced 24-hour corn sales, Brazil’s AgMin stating they are opening doors to US GMO corn imports (reported by AgriCensus) and WCB growing concerns, specifically
western IA. June 1 to date precipitation percent of normal for IA was about 9%, an incredible low figure, according to a map circulating around the trade. Earlier this week we heard some corn yields were on track for the western part of the state to end
up around 100 bushels per acre. We assume these are unirrigated areas. There is rain in the forecast but if they fail to develop over the next two weeks, futures are likely going to trend back higher. Talk of a high pressure ridge returning to the Midwest
in July added support to corn futures.
was 57 points higher as of 1:30 CT and WTI up $0.68.
hogs fell limit 3 cents. China’s large herd data could have pressured the US hog market, an indication there might be less US exports to China on the horizon. In addition, the packer margins are tighter, and cutout was sharply lower. Note Aug hogs traded
a premium to Aug cattle not too long ago.
beef/pork packer margins – Hedgersedge – Reuters News
dollars per head for cattle and hogs).
Jun 16 + 848.70
Jun 15 + 860.60
ago Jun 9 + 893.45
Jun 16 – 20.70
Jun 15 + 1.40
ago Jun 9 + 23.25
noted China’s pig herd is up 23.5% in May from a year ago and the sow herd up 19.3% (reaching 97.4% of the stocks at the end of 2017). Recall 2019 hog herd fell about 40%. They mentioned China met its target to restore pig production. Note hog futures in
China this week fell to a record low and cash prices remain depressed.
– China’s economic planning agency urges hog producers to keep “reasonable” hog production after recent pork price decline, according to a statement on NDRC website.
– “China should keep grain prices at reasonable levels and curb rising prices of agricultural materials, the country’s Premier Li Keqiang said during his inspection tour in northeastern Jilin Province on June 15-16. Li said now was a critical time for grain
production, and effective measures should be taken to stabilize the price of agricultural materials. China should protect black soil and cultivate more fine grain varieties, Li added.”
weekly USDA Broiler Report showed broiler type eggs set up 2 percent and chicks placed up 1 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021 through June 12, 2021 for the United States were 4.30 billion. Cumulative placements were up 1
percent from the same period a year earlier.
US EPA reported the US generated 1.26 billion ethanol D6 RIN credits during May, up from 1.14 billion during April.
on Wednesday we heard D6 RINS were 125 and D4 RINS at 140, both down about 20 cents from yesterday.
US ethanol production
as of June 11 dropped a much more than expected 42,000 barrels per day from the previous week (a Bloomberg poll looked for only 4,000 barrels) to 1.025 million and stocks increased 642,000 barrels (poll was +189,000 barrels) to 20.602 million, highest since
April 2. Gasoline product supplied was up 880,000 barrels, a large amount, to 9.360 million, highest in a month and a good indicator demand was good for that week. The ethanol blend rate was 91%, up from 90.8% previous week. We see no reason for USDA to
make an adjustment to its 2020-21 US corn ethanol demand next month.
the 24-hour reporting system, USDA announced export sales of 153,416 tons of corn delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021-22 marketing year.
Korea’s KFA bought about 60,000 tons of South American corn at $315.00/ton for arrival in South Korea around Sept. 30.
Sinograin plans to sell or auction off 37,126 tons of imported Ukrainian corn on June 18 to replenish tightening supplies and alleviate high prices.
$5.50 and $6.75
corn is seen in a $4.75-$7.00 range.
US soybean complex was mixed. Both soybean oil and soybean futures traded down led by a limit lower SBO market (July-December). Soybean oil futures were lower for the sixth consecutive day. July broke below our 67.50 cent low end trading range. Soybeans
were down 23.25-35.00 cents. Meal ended higher, sending the oil share sharply lower. Limits for hogs, pork, and entire soybean complex expands for tonight’s open.
rolling contract oil share
was chatter US officials may propose to leave unchanged or lower the upcoming 2021 (2021 biomass) EPA biofuel mandates, set to be released around this time of year. We are looking for unchanged. Link to current mandates
reported the US generated 396 million biodiesel D4 RIN credits during May, up from 386 million during April. With USDA amending their soybean oil for biofuel use, it’s difficult to find a correlation between biodiesel D4 RIN generation and what will be reported
by EIA for SBO for biofuel use.
think we are entering a medium term era where at least North America processors are crushing for soybean oil, but soybean oil futures price action over the past week has not suggested this. The selloff in soybean oil over the past several days is likely related
to an overheated market, for soybean oil futures and RIN prices. Soybean oil futures have been running at a wide premium over other global vegetable oil prices in recent months. Declining US RIN prices and cheaper offers for new-crop sunflower oil out of
the Black Sea are the latest fundamental that is setting a negative undertone to SBO this week, in addition to large moves in palm oil. It’s also important to note cash Argentina soybean oil premiums are much lower relative to last month. We view this setback
in soybean oil futures as natural but long term we think the US biofuel story should keep prices well above a 5-year yearly average.
crude oil vs. palm & soybean oil futures
rolling contract oil share
is talk of US soybean meal business yesterday, but no confirmation.
CCC program seeks 25,000 tons of soybean meal for Bangladesh and 8,000 tons for Cambodia on June 17 for July 15-25 shipment.
USDA seeks 1,180 tons of packaged vegetable oil for export donation for July 16-Aug 15 shipment.
soybeans are seen in a $14.10-$15.50; November $12.75-$15.00
meal – July $360-$400; December $380-$460
oil – July 60.00-66.00;
December 54-70 cent range
US wheat futures traded higher on technical buying but ended mixed after the USD rallied 55 points by the CBOT close, and corn & soybean futures trended lower during the last half of the session. Chicago and KC settled mostly lower while MN ended higher.
Egypt is back in for wheat.
rejected a 27,000 ton French wheat cargo after 2 dead animals were found in the cargo. IN early June Algeria rejected a 33,000 ton Canadian durum cargo stating it did not meet specifications.
Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko – wheat crop is seen at more than 81 million tons (Bloomberg).
Paris settled up 0.75 euro, or 0.4%, at 206.50 euros ($250.17) a ton.
retendered for wheat that includes shipment bids after cancelling their import tender yesterday. Lowest offer yesterday was $250.88 a ton for 60,000 tons of Russian wheat but it was cancelled due to high freight prices. There were at least 19 offers on Tuesday.
seeks 60,000 tons of milling wheat for July and August shipment.
lowest offer for Bangladesh in for 50,000 tons of wheat was $335/ton CIF.
received no offers for 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley under its SBS import system, for arrival in Japan by November 25.
seeks 207,472 tons of food wheat.
Philippines seeks 205,000 tons of milling wheat for Aug/Sep shipment.
seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on June 22 for December shipment.
is back in for feed barley on June 23 for Nov/Dec shipment.
lowest offer for Bangladesh in for 50,000 tons of rice was $399.90/ton CIF.
(Bloomberg) — National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration will release state reserves of metals including copper, aluminum and zinc in batches, according to a statement from the administration.
KC wheat is seen in a $5.60-$6.70
MN wheat is seen in a $6.90-$8.50
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
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