PDF Attached


was wetter bias parts of the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and IA.  Soybean oil was on the defensive again creating a negative undertone for soybeans.  Meal was higher. US corn futures rebounded from a snap 24-USDA corn sales announcement and Brazil
opening doors to US GMO corn imports (reported by AgriCensus) along with WCB crop growing concerns.  US wheat was higher as Egypt retendered. Iran is in for 60,000 tons of wheat. SK’s KFA bought 60,000 tons of corn. 
price limits for hogs, pork, and entire soybean complex expands for tonight’s open. 



short term GFS weather outlook also looks wetter for key summer growing states experiencing drought.  Second day of the US precipitation outlook (Friday) increased rain into the upper Midwest.  1-7 day precipitation is not as wet as yesterday’s forecast. 
Note the European models are drier. 




Description automatically generated



Weather, Inc.


  • U.S.
    weather expectations remain mostly the same as Wednesday – as far as this forecaster is concerned
    • Rain
      is expected in much of the Midwest Corn Belt over the next ten days with western and far northern areas seeing the lightest precipitation with the most limited benefit
    • Areas
      from eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin into Ohio may experience the greatest rainfall during this period of time
    • Temperatures
      will be cool enough to reduce evaporative moisture losses and support crops favorably
      • However,
        the western fringes of the Corn Belt, the northern Plains and far northernmost Corn Belt may not do nearly as well with rainfall as other areas
  • Canada’s
    western and northern Prairies will be in the best condition for a while, but rain will be needed in the south soon
  • Western
    India should be on everyone’s radar if limited rainfall prevails into July as suggested
    • Areas
      from Gujarat and Rajasthan into Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh can be drier biased in June and not be a huge deal, but continued poor monsoon performance in July would be interpreted differently for many producers and traders following cotton, soybeans
      and groundnuts
    • Interior
      Western India has not seen good rainfall very often this month, but it is still early
  • Concern
    about Sukhovei conditions in western Kazakhstan, eastern portions of Russia’s Southern Region and lower Volga River Basin remains today
    • The
      Sukhovei that occurs in this first week of the outlook is weak and impacts a small part of the region’s crops
    • The
      real concern is over the potential for the hot, dry, wind to persist into a second week – that would result in a larger area being potentially impacted and a greater impact for those dealing with warm and dry conditions in this first week of the forecast
  • Relief
    from dryness in southeastern Russia’s New Lands and eastern portions of northern Kazakhstan’s wheat and sunseed areas is still expected in this coming week, but western parts of the region will not get as much relief
  • China
    weather is looking very good with most of the dryness from earlier this month now relieved
  • Australia
    will see a good mix of weather during the next ten days, especially in the eat bringing support for better wheat, barley and canola establishment in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia as well as some southeastern Queensland locations
    •  Greater
      rain is still needed though in Queensland and South Australia in particular
  • Western
    Russia, Ukraine and Europe weather still looks to be good over the next ten days
  • No
    threatening cold is expected in Brazil’s grain, sugar or coffee production areas during the next two weeks
  • Rain
    is needed in greater quantities in east-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas
  • Southeast
    Asia weather has been mostly favorable of late and little change is expected
  • Argentina
    still needs rain in wheat production areas, although crops are in much better shape than last year

World Weather, Inc.


Ag Calendar

June 16:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • FT
    Commodities Global Summit, day 2
  • Australia’s
    Abares to release agricultural commodities report
  • Brazil’s
    Unica may release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
    oilseed conference, Chengdu, China, Day 1

June 17:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Itau
    webinar on agribusiness outlook, Sao Paulo, Brazil
    oilseed conference, Chengdu, China, Day 2

June 18:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China
    customs to publish trade data, including imports of corn, wheat, sugar and pork
  • World
    coffee market report by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, 3pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • USDA
    Total Milk Production

Bloomberg and FI




Housing Starts May: 1572K (est 1630K; prevR 1517K; prev 1569K)

Housing Starts (M/M) May: 3.6% (est 3.9%; prevR -12.1%; prev -9.5%)

Building Permits May: 1681K (est 1730K; prevR 1733K; prev 1760K)

Building Permits (M/M) May: -3.0% (est -0.2%; prevR -1.3%; prev 0.3%)

Housing Market Needs 5.5Mln More Units, Says New Report – CNBC


DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 11-Jun: -7355K (est -2500K; prev -5241K)

Distillate Inventories: -1023K (est 500K; prev 4412K)

Cushing Crude Inventories: -2150K (prev 165K)

Gasoline Inventories: 1954K (est -1000K; prev 7046K)

Refinery Utilization: 1.30% (est 0.25%; prev 2.60%)



beef/pork packer margins – Hedgersedge – Reuters News

dollars per head for cattle and hogs).


Jun 16   +  848.70

Jun 15   +  860.60

ago       Jun  9   +  893.45


Jun 16   –  20.70

Jun 15   +  1.40

ago       Jun  9   +  23.25

  • Reuters
    noted China’s pig herd is up 23.5% in May from a year ago and the sow herd up 19.3% (reaching 97.4% of the stocks at the end of 2017).  Recall 2019 hog herd fell about 40%. They mentioned China met its target to restore pig production.  Note hog futures in
    China this week fell to a record low and cash prices remain depressed. 
  • (Bloomberg)
    – China’s economic planning agency urges hog producers to keep “reasonable” hog production after recent pork price decline, according to a statement on NDRC website. 
  • (Reuters)
    – “China should keep grain prices at reasonable levels and curb rising prices of agricultural materials, the country’s Premier Li Keqiang said during his inspection tour in northeastern Jilin Province on June 15-16.  Li said now was a critical time for grain
    production, and effective measures should be taken to stabilize the price of agricultural materials.  China should protect black soil and cultivate more fine grain varieties, Li added.”
  • The
    weekly USDA Broiler Report showed broiler type eggs set up 2 percent and chicks placed up 1 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021 through June 12, 2021 for the United States were 4.30 billion. Cumulative placements were up 1
    percent from the same period a year earlier.
  • The
    US EPA reported the US generated 1.26 billion ethanol D6 RIN credits during May, up from 1.14 billion during April.
  • Early
    on Wednesday we heard D6 RINS were 125 and D4 RINS at 140, both down about 20 cents from yesterday.


US ethanol production

as of June 11 dropped a much more than expected 42,000 barrels per day from the previous week (a Bloomberg poll looked for only 4,000 barrels) to 1.025 million and stocks increased 642,000 barrels (poll was +189,000 barrels) to 20.602 million, highest since
April 2.  Gasoline product supplied was up 880,000 barrels, a large amount, to 9.360 million, highest in a month and a good indicator demand was good for that week.  The ethanol blend rate was 91%, up from 90.8% previous week.  We see no reason for USDA to
make an adjustment to its 2020-21 US corn ethanol demand next month.  






  • South
    Korea’s KFA bought about 60,000 tons of South American corn at $315.00/ton for arrival in South Korea around Sept. 30.
  • China’s
    Sinograin plans to sell or auction off 37,126 tons of imported Ukrainian corn on June 18 to replenish tightening supplies and alleviate high prices.









corn seen in a $6.50 and $7.50 range

$5.50 and $6.75

corn is seen in a $4.75-$7.00 range.




rolling contract oil share


  • There
    was chatter US officials may propose to leave unchanged or lower the upcoming 2021 (2021 biomass) EPA biofuel mandates, set to be released around this time of year.  We are looking for unchanged.  Link to current mandates
  • EPA
    reported the US generated 396 million biodiesel D4 RIN credits during May, up from 386 million during April.  With USDA amending their soybean oil for biofuel use, it’s difficult to find a correlation between biodiesel D4 RIN generation and what will be reported
    by EIA for SBO for biofuel use. 
  • We
    think we are entering a medium term era where at least North America processors are crushing for soybean oil, but soybean oil futures price action over the past week has not suggested this.  The selloff in soybean oil over the past several days is likely related
    to an overheated market, for soybean oil futures and RIN prices.  Soybean oil futures have been running at a wide premium over other global vegetable oil prices in recent months.  Declining US RIN prices and cheaper offers for new-crop sunflower oil out of
    the Black Sea are the latest fundamental that is setting a negative undertone to SBO this week, in addition to large moves in palm oil.  It’s also important to note cash Argentina soybean oil premiums are much lower relative to last month.  We view this setback
    in soybean oil futures as natural but long term we think the US biofuel story should keep prices well above a 5-year yearly average. 


crude oil vs. palm & soybean oil futures


rolling contract oil share



  • There
    is talk of US soybean meal business yesterday, but no confirmation. 
  • USDA’s
    CCC program seeks 25,000 tons of soybean meal for Bangladesh and 8,000 tons for Cambodia on June 17 for July 15-25 shipment.
  • Today
    USDA seeks 1,180 tons of packaged vegetable oil for export donation for July 16-Aug 15 shipment. 



soybeans are seen in a $14.10-$15.50; November $12.75-$15.00

meal – July $360-$400; December $380-$460

oil – July 60.00-66.00
December 54-70 cent range





  • *Egypt
    retendered for wheat that includes shipment bids after cancelling their import tender yesterday.  Lowest offer yesterday was $250.88 a ton for 60,000 tons of Russian wheat but it was cancelled due to high freight prices.  There were at least 19 offers on Tuesday. 
  • *Iran
    seeks 60,000 tons of milling wheat for July and August shipment. 
  • *The
    lowest offer for Bangladesh in for 50,000 tons of wheat was $335/ton CIF.
  • *Japan
    received no offers for 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley under its SBS import system, for arrival in Japan by November 25. 
  • Japan
    seeks 207,472 tons of food wheat. 

  • The
    Philippines seeks 205,000 tons of milling wheat for Aug/Sep shipment. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on June 22 for December shipment. 
  • Jordan
    is back in for feed barley on June 23 for Nov/Dec shipment. 



  • *The
    lowest offer for Bangladesh in for 50,000 tons of rice was $399.90/ton CIF.

(Bloomberg) — National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration will release state reserves of metals including copper, aluminum and zinc in batches, according to a statement from the administration.



Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.00-$7.00 range

KC wheat is seen in a $5.60-$6.70

MN wheat is seen in a $6.90-


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366



Skype: fi.treilly


Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail


Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons.  All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.  Each investment product is offered
only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction.  The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making
your investment decisions.  Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.  All investors
should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision.  The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative.  The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy
of such information or opinions.  Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.