choppy trading range today on positioning ahead of the USDA report due out on Thursday. Corn reversed to traded higher bias the nearby contract. MN wheat was down again after rain fell across parts of the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, pressuring
Chicago and KC type wheat. The soybean complex was lower in part to technical selling and rain falling across the ECB.
for the short and medium range forecast for most models (not GFS) reduced rain for the northern U.S. Plains and increased it in Canada’s eastern Prairies for Thursday night into Saturday.
of the Western U.S. Corn Belt will be drying out over the next ten days
No excessive heat is expected
Some cooling will occur for a little while next week
The drying is not likely to cause critical crop stress; however, concern will rise over crop conditions the next time temperatures turn hot after the period of net drying
high pressure ridge aloft is still expected to shift westward into the Rocky Mountains and high Plains region this weekend and especially next week creating a northwesterly wind flow aloft over the Midwest
In this pattern there may be some shower and thunderstorms and less heat
Crop conditions will only improve if generalized rain evolves
Moisture in the northwestern Corn Belt will be restricted especially if a tropical cyclone comes into the Gulf of Mexico as suggested by some forecast models today
noted a week ago, the potential for tropical cyclone development in a part of the western Atlantic Ocean Basin will be highest from June 13-17
Recent forecast models have suggested tropical systems may evolve in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico a week from now with another tropical wave of small tropical system in the Caribbean Sea a little later in the forecast period
depression evolving in the northern Bay of Bengal will bring significant rain to India from Odisha to Madhya Pradesh this weekend and early next week
Flooding is expected, although rain amounts have been reduced today over those advertised earlier this week
of 4.00 to 10.00 inches and locally more will be possible resulting in some flooding
Not much planting has occurred thus far this summer and the storm will cause delays in fieldwork, but only a small area of replanting may be necessary
A follow up monsoon depression is possible in the second week of the outlook a little farther to the east from West Bengal and Bangladesh to Uttar Pradesh
western India will be drier than usual over the next ten days
The area includes Gujarat, interior Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and much of Andhra Pradesh
China, including the Yellow River Basin and North China, will receive rain this weekend through all of next week to ease the region from recent dryness
Crop stress relief is expected
China crop weather will be mostly good over the next two weeks
China will remain plenty wet for the next two weeks
China will trend a little cooler than usual in the northeast during the coming week with periods of rain possible
Southwestern areas will see a little cooler bias in temperatures and limited rain potential
U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will continue to see a good mix of weather for a while, although the Delta and Tennessee River Basin will need to dry down after recent heavy rain
Delta rainfall overnight was greater than expected with 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals of 3.00 to 8.00 inches noted
Texas will be exceptionally hot over the next few days with highs of 100 to 108 Fahrenheit
Scattered showers will pop up during the weekend and next week as the region cools back down for a little while
western U.S. crop areas will continue quite dry during the next ten days with temperatures turning warmer than usual next week and continuing into the following weekend
Prairies will receive relief from dryness through the weekend, but follow up moisture will still be needed
Short term relief is imperative after recent drying has soil moisture rated short to very short
Crop stress has been increasing and there have been reports of blowing dust in a few areas
Rain will occur in the southeast corner of the Prairies tonight and Wednesday and across eastern Alberta, western and central Saskatchewan Thursday night into Saturday
Week two weather (June 16-22) will be a little drier and warmer biased once again
rainfall will continue confined to southern parts of the nation during the next two weeks leaving drought in dominance of western, central and northern Mexico
Recent rain in eastern Mexico eased long term dryness
and Honduras have been drier biased for the past month and need rain
Some improvement is expected over the next week to ten days as rain develops in some of the driest areas
corn areas of Brazil will experience no serious weather changes over the next ten days
Dryness will remain in Mato Grosso, Goias, southwestern Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo
Showers and thunderstorms farther to the south in Brazil periodically will be good for wheat and late Safrinha crops
Safrinha corn and cotton production will be down this year, despite periodic rainfall in the south
summer crop harvest has advanced well in recent weeks
Winter wheat areas are drying down and there are some areas in Cordoba that need significant moisture
dry bias will prevail over the next week to ten days
will see some periodic showers and some sunshine during the next two weeks
Greater volumes of rain are needed especially in South Australia, Queensland and, northwestern Victoria and western New South Wales
New Lands are still likely to be influenced by a high pressure ridge next week generating very warm and dry biased weather
A sukhovei may evolve early next week bringing excessive heat, wind and low humidity to western Kazakhstan and eastern portions of Russia’s Southern Region.
Europe will be trending drier over the coming week
Temperatures will be warm, but not excessively hot
Drying will raise the need for rain in time
Asia rainfall increased in the mainland areas Tuesday while staying light in Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia
The rain was welcome
of Southeast Asia is expecting bouts of rain through the next ten days, although amounts will be lighter than usual at times.
Africa rain will be minimal for a while supporting summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting
A boost in rain is always needed in winter crop areas
Africa rainfall will increase over the next ten days
Greater rain is needed in many areas; including Ghana and some west-central Ivory Coast coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane production areas
boost in cotton rainfall would also be welcome
Rainfall will continue lighter than usual, but at least some showers will occur periodically
Africa has been drying down and needs greater rain soon to maintain the best coffee, cocoa, rice, sugarcane and other crop production potentials
Rainfall will increase in Ethiopia this week while little change occurs elsewhere
Oscillation Index is mostly neutral at -0.53 and the index is expected to begin leveling off during the balance of this week after a steady decline
Africa weather will trend a little wetter in northern Algeria and Tunisia late this week and into the weekend
No winter crop quality issues are expected
Zealand weather during the coming week to ten days will be drier and warmer than usual
the exception will be along the west coast of South Island where rain is expected this weekend into next week
World Weather, Inc.
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
Grains Council Conference, day 2
releases monthly grains report
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
Palm Oil Board inventory, output and export data for May
Conab releases output, yield and acreage data for corn and soybeans
of Rouen data on French grain exports
June 1-10 palm oil export data
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
weekly update on crop conditions
Bloomberg and FI
REVERSE REPO FACILITY USAGE CLIMBS TO RECORD $502.9 BILLION
MBA Mortgage Applications Jun 4: -3.1% (prev -4.0%
CPI Core (M/M) May: 0.53% (est 0.48%; prev 0.37%)
CPI (M/M) May: 0.20% (est 0.18%; prev 0.33%)
CPI (Y/Y) May: 5.89% (est 5.86%; prev 6.08%)
May 2021 Inflation data:
1.3% y/y expected 1.6% y/y, prior 0.9%
prices expected to fall, pork prices continue to plunge, for the month/month -0.2%
9.0% y/y, higher than the median estimate and fastest since 2008, expected 8.5%, prior 6.8%
by rising commodity prices, for the m/m, +1.6%
corn traded in a wide two-sided range, rallying late in part to a robust weekly ethanol production reported by EIA. The Midwest region was a record. Ethanol margins were good.
corn failed fill its recent gap of $5.9275. The low was $5.9300.
bought an estimated net 10,000 corn contracts.
thing Thursday morning will be Brazil’s Conab update on corn production and this maybe very important to watch, as it could give us an idea and comparison with USDA’s update later in the morning. Trade estimates are above for both reports.
estimate for USDA export sales for combined old and new crop range from 300,000 to 1.1 million tons.
MN and southern WI saw rain over the past day. A good portion of the ECB was wet.
MGDS, southern Minas, southern Goias, Sao Paulo, through RGDS will see rain through the end of the workweek.
started importing Argentina corn. During the Jan-Apr period Brazil imported 758,000 tons of corn from neighboring countries, up 70 percent from a year earlier.
announced they will use their state reserves of pork to help stabilize prices, without getting into details. We think they will be buying and storing pork to help prop up prices. Pork prices are down about 50 percent since the begging of the year and margins
are now unprofitable in many areas. China’s state reserve program for pork is not thought to be large relative to average monthly consumption. China grain and oilseed prices, with exception of meal, were lower.
releasing CPI and PPI May economic data, China announced measure to control feed commodity prices but it’s unclear what they will exactly do.
Sinograin will offer 11,058 tons of Ukrainian imported corn at auction from reserves on June 11.
was the third day of the Goldman Roll.
was 5 points lower as of 1:40 pm CT.
increased its Russian corn production estimate to 15.1 million tons from 14.5 million previously, which would be the second highest in history. Record was 2016 at 15.3 million tons. In 2020 Russia harvested 13.9 million tons of corn.
weekly Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 2 percent and chicks placed up 1 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021 through June 5, 2021 for the United States were 4.11 billion. Cumulative placements were up 1 percent from
the same period a year earlier.
US ethanol production was up a large 33,000 barrels to 1.067 million (trade looking for up 2,000) and stocks increased 372,000 barrels to 19.960 million (trade +110k). For the week ending June 6, ethanol output of 1.067 million barrels is highest since 2/28/20,
and more interestingly only 41,000 barrels below the weekly record set early December 2017 of 1.108 million barrels. Production is up about 9% from around this time last month. Last week’s production came in above the comparable 2017 & 2018 periods but was
just short what was produced in week 40 in 2019. Ethanol stocks are off 8.4% from around this time year ago. US gasoline demand fell 666,000 barrels from the previous week, but lagging demand for this time of year in 2019. Note Midwest ethanol production
was a record.
hog chart created by Reuters
of I – Direct Costs and Prices on Grain Farms
G., N. Paulson, C. Zulauf and K. Swanson. “Direct Costs and Prices on Grain Farms.”
farmdoc daily (11):90, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, June 8, 2021.
is seen in a $6.00 and $7.25 range
corn is seen in a $4.75-$7.00 range.
soybean complex was lower mainly on positioning and lower outside product values. The ECB saw good rains over the past day.