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The
6–10-day precipitation outlook for the US Midwest turned drier. Rain will fall across WI on Friday & Saturday, IA Saturday, and the central areas Sunday, before lingering in the east Monday. A good portion of the Great Plains is still slated to see rain. NOAA’s
prediction of El Nino does not necessarily mean US summer crops are in any imminent danger (see weather section). The USD was down 74 points, supportive for CBOT ags. Export sales were mostly within expectations. There was technical buying and positioning
today ahead of the USDA report. Soybean oil was sharply higher on talk of lack of US end user coverage.
Fund
estimates as of June 8 (net in 000)
US
CPC: El Nino update – 56% chance during November-January, and an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength.
NOAA’s
prediction of 56% chance of peak strength joins Australia’s weather group (BOM) to officially declare El Nino has begun. The
last strong El Nino event was back in 2016, when Pacific waters warmed near the central areas of the ocean. But we note
in 2016, US corn and soybean yields came in above trend (see attached SST’s versus yields & trend after the text).
WEATHER
TO WATCH
-
Low
soil moisture in the U.S. crop areas and recent warm weather has expanded crop stress and raised more market worry over the fate of crops -
Cooling
in the next week will reduce that stress and even though rain is advertised it is likely to be sporadic and light enough to maintain some concern over crop conditions and production potential especially in the longer range outlook since this is only June and
there is a lot of summer weather still yet to come -
GFS
model is predicting too much rain for the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states during days 11-15 -
The
European model is preferred in the first ten days of the outlook -
Rain
in the U.S. Midwest will begin in the western Corn Belt this weekend and advance to the east next week -
Rainfall
may prove a little disappointing for some areas and a close watch on its distribution is warranted -
Cooler
temperatures in the U.S. Midwest will help conserve soil moisture through lower evaporation rates -
Most
of the U.S. Midwest rainfall in the coming ten days will not be enough to seriously bolster soil moisture, but enough will occur in conjunction with milder temperatures to support a some improvement in crop conditions -
Keeping
crops viable prior to reproduction can leave production potentials quite high, but serious moisture shortages prior to reproduction can result in greater production cuts if and when reproduction occurs without an improvement in precipitation -
Less
rain and more sunshine in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas in the next two weeks should bode well for improved crop and field conditions -
Rain
will still fall relatively often, but with better drying between rain events -
West
Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will experience a good mix of light showers and sunshine, though there is need for greater warmth -
Some
southwestern counties in West Texas did not get adequate relief from dryness and still need greater rain -
Temperatures
will continue cooler than usual into the weekend, but next week’s temperatures will be a little closer to normal -
The
longer range outlook will promote less rain and greater warmth in West Texas presenting a more favorable outlook for crop development later this summer -
Soil
and crop conditions in the heart of central, eastern and southern Texas are mostly good for developing cotton, corn and sorghum -
Canada’s
southwestern Prairies will not likely get much drought relief for a little while, although some sporadic showers are expected -
Ontario
and Quebec, Canada will get some welcome rain next week while dry and mild to cool weather occurs over the balance of this week and during the weekend -
Mexico’s
drought remains serious with western and central parts of the nation quite warm to hot and dry over the next week to ten days -
Tropical
Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea will spend several days over open water and it will disrupt normal monsoon rainfall in southern and eastern parts of the nation -
There
are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean Basin today and none are expected -
Tropical
Cyclone Guchol in the Philippine Sea poses no threat to land -
Tropical
Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the open water of the Arabian Sea through June 13, though it still has potential to impact Pakistan and Oman -
Southeast
Asia rainfall continues to occur routinely enough to support most crops favorably -
Northern
Europe temperatures will be warmer than usual this week and that will create a more stressful environment for crops as they deal with another week of dry conditions
-
Southern
Europe has been receiving frequent rainfall in recent weeks and the trend will continue for another week
-
Eastern
CIS New Lands will begin to receive some timely rainfall the remainder of this week bringing some relief to the drier biased areas of Kazakhstan and Russia’s eastern New Lands -
The
precipitation will be sporadic helping some areas more than others -
Kazakhstan
is not likely to get nearly as much rain and unirrigated crop stress will continue -
Russia’s
Volga River Basin will be drier than usual for this first week of the two week outlook raising crop moisture stress for some crops since the ground is already drying out -
There
is some potential for relief after June 14 -
Summer
crops in China are expected to see a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days -
Some
far southern China crop areas may become a little too wet during the next ten days.
-
Northeast
China will see sufficient rain to maintain a good outlook for corn, soybeans, sugarbeets and spring wheat -
There
is a dryness concern from northern Jilin into Inner Mongolia and “some” relief is possible in the next couple of weeks, although more rain will be needed -
Xinjiang,
China will experience more seasonable temperatures over the next two weeks -
The
province has struggled with coolness in recent weeks and crop development is behind the usual pace -
Production
potentials have decreased because of some reduced area planted and due to the poor early season start to crop development -
There
is concern over early season frost and freeze potentials coming along before the crop is fully mature
-
Monsoonal
rainfall is expected to occur in the mainland areas of Southeast Asia during the next two weeks resulting in improved sugarcane, rice and coffee conditions among other crops like corn -
Some
caution is needed since some of the computer forecast model data is exaggerating the anticipated rainfall
-
Philippines,
Indonesia and Malaysia will see a favorable mix of weather during the next two weeks supporting most crop needs -
Australia
weather over the next ten days trend a little drier, but recent rain has improved crop and field conditions in many production areas -
The
moisture will be ideal for wheat, barley and canola establishment -
A
boost in rainfall will be needed in Queensland and in interior South Australia and in some northern and eastern Western Australia crop areas -
South
Africa rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days, though some rain will benefit southwestern winter wheat, barley and canola production areas -
West-Central
Africa rainfall will be favorably distributed for coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and cotton as well as rice during the next ten days -
East-central
Africa has been and will continue to be favorably distributed from Uganda and southwestern Kenya to Ethiopia through the next ten days with western Ethiopia wettest relative to normal -
Argentina
weather over the next ten days will not provide much rainfall which will favor fieldwork in many areas, but no relief from dryness is likely in the southwest -
Brazil
weather during the coming will be more unsettled than in previous weeks resulting in some increases in topsoil moisture
-
Rain
is expected in southern Brazil and Paraguay Sunday into Wednesday of next week, June 11-14 -
A
greater amount of rain may impact areas from Parana to northern Rio Grande do Sul -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -18.80 and it will move higher over the next week
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Friday,
June 9:
- USDA’s
World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm - China’s
agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly supply and demand report - Sustainable
World Resources conference in Singapore - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - Russia
grain union conference in Gelendzhik, day 4
Reuters
estimates for USDA S&D
