FI Evening Grain Comments 06/08/20

PDF Attached

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:
Weather conditions in the U.S. will be mixed over the next two weeks with some net drying in the eastern Midwest and Tennessee River Basin. The drying trend will be closely monitored, but for now this change in weather will be good for late season summer crop
planting. Weekend rainfall in the upper Midwest and that expected early this week will bolster soil moisture for improved summer crop conditions

Weekend rainfall in Canada’s Prairies was good for “some” of its canola, but additional rain will be needed in parts of the region this week.

            South
America weather did not change much during the weekend and little change was expected this week. Net drying in key summer coarse grain and oilseed areas will be great for crop harvesting.

            Rain
is needed in South Africa and Australia to improve canola planting conditions.

            Philippines
rainfall has become erratic and light and needs to be bolstered in a major way. Most of Malaysia and Indonesia rainfall is still rated favorably and likely to prevail for a while.

            Europe
weather will remain mostly good for coarse grain and oilseed development, although some additional warming is needed in Eastern Europe. A boost in rainfall coming for Western Europe will likely translate into improving summer crop development potential, although
it may come a little late for winter rapeseed.

            Drying
in Russia’s Southern Region, Kazakhstan and central and eastern Ukraine will raise some interest for soybeans, corn and sunseed development, but the region is not too dry today except in parts of Kazakhstan and Russia’s Southern Region.

            The
bottom line will make weather a growing interest for coarse grain and oilseed development around the world, although it does not seem like there is an immediate threat to production. Just enough concern may help induce some rising market premium as time moves
along.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:
Rain in Canada’s Prairies during the weekend helped to improve wheat conditions, although there are still some pockets that need greater rainfall. Dryness is also a concern in parts of the northern U.S. Plains. In the meantime, less rain in the eastern Midwest
will be good for soft wheat as it fills and matures over the next few weeks.

            U.S.
hard red winter wheat is finishing out relatively well, but dryness and frost damage in the southwestern Plains has left production low in some areas. Hot, dry weather over the next few days will speed along crop development and maturation.

Rain in Europe has improved small grain conditions in recent weeks and will continue to support crops, although some areas need temperatures to trend just a little warmer.  Spring cereals are still rated favorably with little change expected this week. There
will be some interest in eastern Russia’s spring wheat as time moves along this summer, but for now the environment is still mostly good.

            Australia’s
rain event expected late this week and into the weekend should improve some crops, but there will be an ongoing need for greater moisture.  South Africa and parts of Argentina still need greater rainfall to support wheat planting and establishment.

            Overall,
weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bearish bias.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
June 8:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S.
  crop progress — corn, soybean plantings, winter wheat conditions, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• French
  Agriculture Ministry crop report due during week (no set day)
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, Malaysia

TUESDAY,
June 9:

• Brazil’s
  Conab grains report

WEDNESDAY,
June 10:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• International
  Grains Council virtual conference
• FranceAgriMer
  crop report and press briefing
• Crop
  report by Australia’s Abares
• Malaysia
  MPOB palm oil stockpiles, export, production data for May
• Cargo
  surveyors release Malaysia export numbers for June 1-10

THURSDAY,
June 11:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
• China
  CASDE monthly crop supply and demand report
• Vietnam’s
  coffee, rice and rubber export data for May
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Council webinar: Palm oil in post- pandemic
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

FRIDAY,
June 12:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• New
  Zealand food prices
• Shanghai
  exchange’s weekly commodities inventory
• HOLIDAY:
  Russia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

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