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US
wheat and corn settled lower, soybeans & meal mixed (bull spreading noted for soybeans and corn from strong spot cash prices), and soybean oil lower.  Weather models somewhat improved for the US Midwest (morning and afternoon updates). Not all areas will benefit
from rain over the next 10 days.
The
Goldman Roll started today. The Great Plains will see rain over the next week. The heart of the US will see rain Friday through Sunday. The northwestern Midwest will turn drier next week while the southeast turns wetter. Black Sea grain export deal talks resume
Friday in Geneva. Earlier this week Russia said it saw no prospects to extend the deal. China May soybean imports jumped to a record 12.02 million tons despite tighter inspection protocols.

 

Fund
estimates as of June 7 (net in 000)

 

Weather

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World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Low
    soil moisture in the U.S. crop areas and recent warm weather has expanded crop stress and raised more market worry over the fate of crops
    • Cooling
      in the next week will reduce that stress and even though rain is advertised it is likely to be sporadic and light enough to maintain some concern over crop conditions and production potential especially in the longer-range outlook since this is only June and
      there is a lot of summer weather still yet to come
  • GFS
    model is predicting too much rain for the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states during the second week of the  outlook today
  • Less
    rain and more sunshine in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas in the next two weeks should bode well for improved crop and field conditions
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn and  sorghum areas will experience a good mix of light showers and sunshine, though there is need for greater warmth
    • Some
      southwestern counties in West Texas did not get adequate relief from dryness and still need greater rain
    • Temperatures
      will continue cooler than usual into the weekend, but next week’s temperatures will be a little closer to normal
    • The
      longer range  outlook will promote less rain and greater warmth over time a favorable outlook for late summer rainfall
  • Soil
    and crop conditions in the heart of central, eastern and southern Texas are mostly good for developing cotton, corn and sorghum
  • GFS
    model is predicting too much rain for Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan during the  second week of the forecast today; some showers are expected, but a general soaking seems to be a little out of line with reality
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada will get some welcome rain next week while dry and mild to cool weather occurs over the balance of this week and during the weekend
  • Mexico’s
    drought remains serious with western and central parts of the nation quite warm to hot and dry over the next week to ten days
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea will spend several days over open water and it will disrupt normal monsoon rainfall in southern and eastern parts of the nation
  • There
    are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean Basin today and none are expected
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Guchol in the Philippine Sea poses no threat to land
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall continues to occur routinely enough to support most crops favorably
  • Northern
    Europe temperatures will be warmer than usual this week and that will create a more stressful environment for crops as they deal with another week of dry conditions
  • Southern
    Europe has been receiving frequent rainfall in recent weeks and the trend will continue for another week
  • Eastern
    CIS New Lands will begin to receive some timely rainfall the remainder of this week bringing some relief to the drier biased areas of Kazakhstan and Russia’s eastern New Lands
    • The
      precipitation will be sporadic helping some areas more than others
      • Kazakhstan
        is not likely to get nearly as much rain and unirrigated crop stress will continue
  • Russia’s
    Volga River Basin and Ukraine will be dry for the next week to ten days raising crop moisture stress for some crops since the ground is already drying out
    • There
      is some potential for relief after June 14
  • Summer
    crops in China are expected to see a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days
    • Some
      far southern China crop areas may become a little too wet during the next ten days.
    • Northeast
      China will see sufficient rain to maintain a good outlook for corn, soybeans, sugarbeets and spring wheat
      • There
        is a dryness concern from northern Jilin into Inner Mongolia and “some” relief is possible in the next couple of weeks, although more rain will be needed
  • Xinjiang,
    China will experience more seasonable temperatures over the next two weeks
    • The
      province has struggled with coolness in recent weeks and crop development is behind the usual pace
      • Production
        potentials have decreased because of some reduced area planted and due to the poor early season start to crop development
        • There
          is concern over early season frost and freeze potentials coming along before the crop is fully mature
  • Monsoonal
    rainfall is expected to occur in the mainland areas of Southeast Asia during the next two weeks resulting in improved sugarcane, rice and coffee conditions among other crops like corn
    • Some
      caution is needed since some of the computer forecast model data is exaggerating the anticipated rainfall
  • Philippines,
    Indonesia and Malaysia will see a favorable mix of weather during the next two weeks supporting most crop needs
  • Australia
    weather over the next ten days will include rain in Victoria, New South Wales, southeastern South Australia and southwestern Western Australia
    • The
      moisture will be ideal for wheat, barley and canola establishment
    • A
      boost in rainfall will be needed in Queensland and in interior South Australia and in some northern and eastern Western Australia crop areas
  • South
    Africa rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days, though some rain will benefit southwestern winter wheat, barley and canola production areas
  • West-Central
    Africa rainfall will be favorably distributed for coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and cotton as well as rice during the next ten days
  • East-central
    Africa has been and will continue to be favorably distributed from Uganda and southwestern Kenya to Ethiopia through the next ten days with western Ethiopia wettest relative to normal
  • Argentina
    weather over the next ten days will not provide much rainfall which will favor fieldwork in many areas, but no relief from dryness is likely in the southwest
  • Brazil
    weather during the coming will be dry for most of the nation’s key crop areas this week, although some rain will fall in coastal Bahia and areas northward
    • Rain
      is expected in far southern Brazil Sunday into Wednesday of next week, June 11-14
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -19.42 and it will move erratically higher over the next week

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
June 8:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Russia
    grain union conference in Gelendzhik, day 3
  • HOLIDAY:
    Brazil

Friday,
June 9:

  • USDA’s
    World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
  • China’s
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly supply and demand report
  • Sustainable
    World Resources conference in Singapore
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
  • Russia
    grain union conference in Gelendzhik, day 4

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Reuters
estimates for USDA S&D

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Bloomberg
estimates for Conab – June 13 release

 

 

Macros