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USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 165,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to Spain during the 2022-23 marketing year.

 

US
weather forecasts and money flow dominated the ag markets after price reaction initially reflected changes in crop conditions, Australian wheat production, and the Ukraine dam situation. Week one of the GFS model was drier for parts of the Midwest and wetter
for southern OK. Australia sees their wheat crop at 26.2 million tons, a 34 percent decline from last year. Traders are concerned the Ukraine/Russia conflict is escalating.
It’s
rare to see a large drop in US corn conditions for this time of year but not surprising given the dry areas of the WCB and upper ECB states.

 

Fund
estimates as of June 6 (net in 000)

 

Weather

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Weather
    changes coming to many areas in the world during the next two weeks
    • Rain
      is expected to fall in the U.S. Midwest to improve topsoil moisture and temperatures will trend cooler
    • Canada’s
      Prairies will have a little better chance for rain, although the precipitation will continue a little too erratic
    • Northern
      Europe is expecting rain to relieve three weeks of dry weather
    • Eastern
      Russia New Lands will get waves of rain and experience cooler temperatures easing long term dryness and improving crop prospects
    • India
      will begin receiving better rainfall during the second half of next week after the Arabian Sea tropical cyclone moves into Oman and dissipates
  • Southwestern
    U.S. Plains will experience less frequent and less significant rain during the next ten days especially in the High Plains of West Texas
  • U.S.
    Midwest will get some timely rainfall, although amounts will be a little disappointing when the time comes
    • The
      greatest precipitation is expected next week
    • Additional
      rain will  be needed
  • U.S.
    central Plains will remain plenty wet over the next ten days maintaining a grain quality concern for some of the crop, although it will not be quite wet enough for a serious impact
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will  get waves of rain during the next two weeks, alternating with periods of sunshine
    • Temperatures
      will trend cooler than usual
  • Cooling
    in eastern North America later this week and lasting into next week will slow crop development rates in some areas and conserve soil moisture in many areas where the ground  is moist
  • A
    returning  62-day cool cycle is possible late this month that could perpetuate the cooler  bias
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will not experience much serious rain this week
    • Scattered
      showers and thunderstorms are expected, but resulting rainfall will not be enough to fix long term drought in eastern or southern Alberta or seriously ease dryness in western Saskatchewan
    • Dryness
      is evolving in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba as well and these areas have received limited rain recently and seen frequent high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit
    • Any
      rainfall that occurs this week in the Prairies will be welcome, but it will not be enough to seriously change the moisture profile
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will trend cooler next week and along with that should come a better opportunity for “some” rain, but it is too soon to get excited about a serious trend change.
  • Ontario
    and Quebec weather will not include much rain for a while, although temperatures will trend cooler and that should translate into favorable field working conditions
    • Rain
      is needed soon to improve summer crop emergence and establishment
    • Wheat
      development should continue favorably
  • Tropical
    Activity may increase in the eastern Pacific Ocean next week
  • There
    are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean Basin today and none are expected
  • Tropical
    Cyclone 02A in the Arabian Sea will develop into a s strong storm that will eventually reach Oman producing heavy rain and strong wind speeds
    • The
      most important part of this storm is its interference with southwest monsoon moisture for India resulting in poor rainfall in southern and eastern parts of that nation for the next week
    • Monsoonal
      moisture should improve later next week
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall continues to occur routinely enough to support most crops favorably
  • Northern
    Europe temperatures will be warmer than usual this week and that will create a more stressful environment for crops as they deal with another week of dry conditions
  • Southern
    Europe has been receiving frequent rainfall in recent weeks and the trend will continue for another week to ten days
  • Eastern
    CIS New Lands will begin to receive some timely rainfall the remainder of this week bringing some relief to the drier biased areas of Kazakhstan and Russia’s eastern New Lands
    • The
      precipitation will be sporadic helping some areas more than others
      • Kazakhstan
        is not likely to get nearly as much rain and unirrigated crop stress will continue
  • Russia’s
    Volga River Basin and Ukraine will be dry for the next week to ten days raising crop moisture stress for some crops since the ground is already drying out
    • There
      is some potential for relief after June 14
  • India’s
    monsoon continues to perform poorly and that situation will not change greatly over the next two weeks
    • A
      tropical cyclone will develop in the Arabian Sea this week interfering with the southwest monsoon flow for up to ten days
  • Another
    Tropical Cyclone will develop northwest of Guam and well east of the Philippines this week
    • The
      storm should stay over open water and is expected to curve back to the east northeast late this week keeping the system away from major land masses in Southeast Asia
  • Summer
    crops in China are expected to see a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days
    • Some
      far southern China crop areas may become a little too wet during the next ten days.
    • Northeast
      China will see sufficient rain to maintain a good outlook for corn, soybeans, sugarbeets and spring wheat
      • There
        is a dryness concern from northern Jilin into Inner Mongolia and “some” relief is possible in the next couple of weeks, although more rain will be needed
  • Xinjiang,
    China will experience more seasonable temperatures over the next two weeks
    • The
      province has struggled with coolness in recent weeks and crop development is behind the usual pace
      • Production
        potentials have decreased because of some reduced area planted and due to the poor early season start to crop development
        • There
          is concern over early season frost and freeze potentials coming along before the crop is fully mature
  • Monsoonal
    rainfall is expected to occur in the mainland areas of Southeast Asia during the next two weeks resulting in improved sugarcane, rice and coffee conditions among other crops like corn
    • Some
      caution is needed since some of the computer forecast model data is exaggerating the anticipated rainfall
  • Philippines,
    Indonesia and Malaysia will see a favorable mix of weather during the next two weeks supporting most crop needs
  • Australia
    weather over the next ten days will include rain in Victoria, New South Wales, southeastern South Australia and southwestern Western Australia
    • The
      moisture will be ideal for wheat, barley and canola establishment
    • A
      boost in rainfall will be needed in Queensland and in interior South Australia and in some northern and eastern Western Australia crop areas
  • South
    Africa rainfall will be restricted over the next ten days, though some rain will benefit southwestern winter wheat, barley and canola production areas
  • West-Central
    Africa rainfall will be favorably distributed for coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and cotton as well as rice during the next ten days
  • East-central
    Africa has been and will continue to be favorably distributed from Uganda and southwestern Kenya to Ethiopia through the next ten days with western Ethiopia wettest relative to normal
  • Argentina
    weather over the next ten days will not provide much rainfall which will favor fieldwork in many areas, but no relief from dryness is likely in the southwest
  • Brazil
    weather during the coming will be dry for most of the nation’s key crop areas, although some rain will fall in coastal Bahia and areas northward
    • Rain
      is expected in far southern Brazil Sunday into Wednesday of next week, June 11-14
  • Mexico’s
    drought is not likely to improve for the next two weeks
    • Rain
      will occur periodically in eastern and far southern portions of the nation, but seasonal rains are expected to be delayed by at least two more weeks
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -19.64 and it will move erratically higher over the next week

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
June 6:

  • Russia
    grain union conference in Gelendzhik, day 1
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • New
    Zealand commodity prices
  • Malaysia’s
    June 1-5 palm oil export data
  • US
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment

Wednesday,
June 7:

  • China’s
    1st batch of May trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Russia
    grain union conference in Gelendzhik, day 2

Thursday,
June 8: