FI Evening Grain Comments 06/05/20

PDF Attached includes prices after the wheat section (ignore the settlement changes after respected sections)

 

Weather

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  Eastern
U.S. Midwest crop areas will likely dry down for a while in the coming week to ten days, but crop conditions will stay fine and late season planting will advance favorably. Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring welcome moisture from Missouri into Wisconsin and
some neighboring areas next week to maintain moisture abundance in those areas. Net drying in the southeastern states and Tennessee River Basin will be closely monitored.

           
China weather is a concern in some of the dry areas in east-central parts of the nation, Limited rainfall and very warm to hot temperatures through early next week will raise concern over crop development and the region will need to be closely monitored. Some
rain is possible in the driest areas during early through mid-week next week, but it may be a little too light and sporadic for the best relief. Northeastern China will see a better mix of rain and sunshine to support fieldwork and crop development.

           
India’s monsoon is expected to perform well this year, although rainfall will be erratic over the next ten days. Tropical Cyclone Nisarga dissipated over Maharashtra Thursday, but the storm has bolstered soil moisture in the state and neighboring areas of
Madhya Pradesh where some early planting may soon evolve.

           
Oil palm and coconut production in Southeast Asia is advancing favorably with little change likely.

           
Canola planting is moving along in Australia, but there is need for greater rainfall in many areas. There is plenty of time for the greater rain to fall, however. Canola in Canada’s Prairies has been planted in many areas, but rain is needed in parts of the
central and east to stimulate germination, emergence and improved establishment. Western parts of the Prairies have been too wet at times and more rain is coming to those areas this weekend and early next week.

           
Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop is finishing favorably after rain fell in late May. Some production cut did occur earlier in the month because of dryness especially in eastern production areas.

           
Argentina’s harvest is moving along well as is that of South Africa.

           
Most of Eastern Europe’s crop weather has improved with recent rainfall, although the precipitation came a little late to seriously turn around winter rapeseed production. Corn, sunseed and soybean planting should be advancing well with favorable emergence,
but warming is needed to stimulate better crop development from Eastern Europe into the western CIS. Rain is needed in northwestern Europe and some of that may occur in the coming week to ten days. Net drying is expected in southeastern Ukraine and Russia’s
Southern Region over the next ten days.

           
Overall, weather today is likely to have a mixed influence on market mentality.

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Dryness
remains a worry in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and from there into southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, although “some” rain is expected by this time next week. The precipitation may be somewhat restricted, though. Western Alberta is
still too wet and moving slowly in its spring planting. Eastern Alberta will likely become too wet this weekend into early next week.

           
U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas will be experience net drying this week, despite a few showers and thunderstorms because of very warm to hot temperatures. However, much of the crop has reproduced and is filling with crops in the south maturing.
The limited rainfall and heat will stress a few crops, but Nebraska and northern Kansas crops are most immature while having the best soil moisture. The bottom line to net drying is not expected to be very great on crop conditions or production, although maturation
will be rushed.

           
U.S. soft wheat conditions in the Midwest have improved with this week’s decreasing rain frequency and rising temperatures.  Dryness in the northwestern states remains a concern and weekend heat did not help the situation.

           
Northwestern Europe dryness will continue a concern, despite a few showers recently and those still yet to come. Crops elsewhere in Europe and the western CIS will experience a favorable mix of weather, although production will not be restored in areas that
had inclement conditions last autumn and earlier this spring to harm production. Net drying is resuming in eastern parts of the Black Sea region, but today’s forecast is offering some opportunity for rain in Russia’s eastern New Lands during the June 13-19
period.

           
China’s winter wheat crop is rated favorably, although drying now may be stressing a few of the more immature crops. Spring crops are favorably moist and expected to perform well.

           
Australia’s planting of small grains has advanced well. There is still need for greater rain in many of Australia’s winter crop areas. Queensland, northern and western New South Wales and parts of South Australia and northern Western Australia crop areas need
more rain. South Africa and western Argentina also need more rain.

           
Overall, weather today will likely contribute a mixed influence on market mentality with a bullish bias.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
June 8:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S.
  crop progress — corn, soybean plantings, winter wheat conditions, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• French
  Agriculture Ministry crop report due during week (no set day)
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, Malaysia

TUESDAY,
June 9:

• Brazil’s
  Conab grains report

WEDNESDAY,
June 10:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• International
  Grains Council virtual conference
• FranceAgriMer
  crop report and press briefing
• Crop
  report by Australia’s Abares
• Malaysia
  MPOB palm oil stockpiles, export, production data for May
• Cargo
  surveyors release Malaysia export numbers for June 1-10

THURSDAY,
June 11:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
• China
  CASDE monthly crop supply and demand report
• Vietnam’s
  coffee, rice and rubber export data for May
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Council webinar: Palm oil in post- pandemic
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

FRIDAY,
June 12:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• New
  Zealand food prices
• Shanghai
  exchange’s weekly commodities inventory
• HOLIDAY:
  Russia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

·        
Goldman Roll began on Friday

·        
May unemployment rate comes in at 13.3%, better than the 19.5% expected

·        
US Change In Nonfarm Payrolls May: +2509K (est -7500K; prevR -20687K; prev -20537K)

·        
US Unemployment Rate May: 13.3% (est 19.0%; prev 14.7%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) May: -1.0% (est 1.0%; prevR 4.7%; prev 4.7%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) May: 6.7% (est 8.5%; prevR 8.0%; prev 7.9%)

·        
US Change In Private Payrolls May: 3.094K (est -6750K; prevR -19724K; prev-19557K)

·        
US Change In Manufacturing Payrolls May: 225K (est -400K; prevR -1324K; prev -1330K)

·        
US Average Weekly Hours Al Employees May: 34.7 (est 34.3; prev 34.2)

·        
US Labour Force Participation Rate May: 60.8% (est 60.1%; prev 60.2%)

·        
US Underemployment Rate May: 21.2% (prev 22.8%)

·        
Canadian Unemployment Rate May: 13.7% (est 15.0%; prev 13.0%)

·        
Canadian Full Time Employment Change May: 219.4K (prev -1472K)

·        
Canadian Part Time Employment Change May: 70.3K (prev -521.9K)

·        
Canadian Participation Rate May: 61.4 (est 59.1; prev 59.8)

 

 

 

 

CFTC
commitment of traders

 

 

 

 

 

Corn.

·        
July corn futures ended higher on Friday and up 5.50 cents for the week.  Friday’s rally was related to
positive
US economic data (massive surprise in jobs report indicating a recovery), higher WTI and short covering.

·        
Favorable US weather continues to cast a long-term bearish undertone on the market as the US carryout could exceed 3.3 billion bushels. 

·        
We see the US 2020-21 US corn carryout above 3.3 billion bushels. 

·        
Goldman Roll started on Friday. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

• Syria
  will retender for 50,000 tons of soymeal and 50,000 tons of corn on June 24 for delivery within four months of contract.

 

Updated
6/4/20

• July
  corn is seen in a $3.20 and $3.45 range.  December lows could reach $2.90 if US weather cooperates. 
  

 

Soybean
complex

• Soybeans
  ended near
  unchanged to higher after rallying this week amid 24-hour sales announcements Tuesday into Friday.  State owned Chinese buyers bought small amounts of US soybeans all week after the government told them not to make large (one off) purchases. 
  
• Prices
  were supported early from improving US economic conditions and support from outside related markets such as crude oil and the devaluation in the US during last half Thursday trading. 
  
• China
  continued to buy US soybeans on Thursday into Friday. At least three cargoes traded hands.
  
• It’s
  safe to say the bulls are eying US soybean export competitiveness against SA soybeans for OND shipment.
  

·        
China soybean imports in May were up 27 percent from a year ago after sourcing 9.4 million tons alone from Brazil, up from 7.4 million in May 2019. The record high for Brazil was 10.08 million tons
in July 2017. 

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 63 cents per bushel (70 previous session) and compares to 67 cents a week ago and 79 cents around this time last year.

• APK-Inform
  estimated the Ukraine 2020 sunflower crop between 16 and 16.2 million tons, up from previous 15.5 million tons. 
  

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• USDA’s
  24-hour reporting system announced:

–Export
sales of 258,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 198,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 330,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 196,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 134,000 metric tons is for delivery during the
2020/2021 marketing year.

• Syria
  will retender for 50,000 tons of soymeal and 50,000 tons of corn on June 24 for delivery within four months of contract.

 

Updated
6/4/20

• July
  soybeans are seen in a $8.35-$8.90 range. 
• July
  soybean meal is seen in a $280 to $310 range. 
• July
  soybean oil range is now seen in a 26.75 to 28.50 range. 

 

Wheat

• Chicago
  wheat ended lower
  on Friday on lack of fresh news leading to profit taking. 
  
• US
  harvest progress will likely remain strong after this weekend into next week. Much of the rain from the tropical storm may stay east of the main areas of TX and OK that are undergoing harvest progress. 
  
• French
  soft wheat ratings were unchanged at 56 percent but remain very low relative to history.
  
• Ukraine
  spring plantings are 98 percent complete on an estimated 15.5 million hectares (does not include land not reported).
  
• Paris
  December wheat futures settled 0.75 euros, or 0.4%, lower at 186.75 euros ($210.82) a ton.

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on June 17 for November-December shipment. 
• The
  Philippines passed on 55,000 tons of feed wheat on June 4 for September shipment.
  

 

Rice/Other

• CBOT
  July rice sharply higher again, making significant gains over the September.  We view this trade and the short WTI earlier, as trades of the year for commodities.  
  
• The
  Philippines seeks 300,000 tons of rice on June 8. 

 

Updated
6/4/20

• Chicago
  July is seen in a $5.00-$5.31 range
• KC
  July $4.65-$4.95
• MN
  July $5.10-$5.40