FI Evening Grain Comments 06/04/20

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USDA
announced 120,000 tons of soybeans to unknown. US soybeans are competitive for the export market.  USDA export sales were supportive.  China sold nearly 12 million tons of corn out of reserves over the past three weeks. FAO sees 2020 global wheat production
below USDA’s outlook.

 

Weather

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  U.S.
crop weather should be mostly good this week with warmer temperatures and less rain occurring to spur on faster crop development while stimulating late season planting. Timely rainfall will become very important later in June and is likely to occur.  Tropical
Storm Cristobal should bring moisture to the U.S. Midwest early next week. The moisture should be timely after net drying this week and help maintain moisture abundance for long term crop development.

           
China weather is a concern in some of the dry areas in east-central parts of the nation, Limited rainfall and very warm to hot temperatures through the weekend will raise concern over crop development and the region will need to be closely monitored. Some
rain is possible in the driest areas during early through mid-week next week, but it may be a little too light and sporadic for the best relief. Northeastern China may be a little wetter than usual for a while slowing some of its planting, but most crops in
the region are suspected of being in good condition.

           
India’s monsoon is expected to perform well this year, although initial rainfall will be erratic over the next ten days. Tropical Cyclone Nisarga dissipated over Maharashtra overnight and its remnants will move to western Madhya Pradesh today. The storm produced
very little negative impact in agriculture or personal property.

           
Oil palm and coconut production in Southeast Asia is advancing favorably with little change likely.

           
Canola planting is moving along in Australia, but there is need for greater rainfall in many areas. There is plenty of time for the greater rain to fall, however. Canola in Canada’s Prairies has been planted in many areas, but rain is needed in parts of the
central and east to stimulate germination, emergence and improved establishment.

           
Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop is finishing favorably after rain fell in late May. Some production cut did occur earlier in the month because of dryness especially in eastern production areas.

           
Argentina’s harvest is moving along well as is that of South Africa.

           
Most of Eastern Europe’s crop weather has improved with recent rainfall, although the precipitation came a little late to seriously turn around winter rapeseed production. Corn, sunseed and soybean planting should be advancing well with favorable emergence,
but warming is needed to stimulate better crop development from Eastern Europe into the western CIS. Rain is needed in northwestern Europe and some of that may occur in the coming week to ten days. Net drying is expected in southeastern Ukraine and Russia’s
Southern Region over the next ten days.

           
Overall, weather today is likely to have a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Dryness
remains a worry in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and from there into southern and eastern Saskatchewan and west-central Manitoba, although “some” rain is expected by this time next week. The precipitation may be somewhat restricted, though. Western Alberta
is still too wet and moving slowly in its spring planting. Eastern Alberta will likely become too wet this weekend into early next week.

           
U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas will be experience net drying this week, despite a few showers and thunderstorms because of very warm to hot temperatures. However, much of the crop has reproduced and is filling with crops in the south maturing.
The limited rainfall and heat will stress a few crops, but Nebraska and northern Kansas crops are most immature while having the best soil moisture. The bottom line to net drying is not expected to be very great on crop conditions or production, although maturation
will be rushed.

           
U.S. soft wheat conditions in the Midwest will improve with this week’s decreasing rain frequency and rising temperatures.  Dryness in the northwestern states remains a concern and weekend heat did not help the situation.

           
Northwestern Europe dryness will continue a concern for a little while longer this week, but rain is expected later in the week and into next week. Crops elsewhere in Europe and the western CIS will experience a favorable mix of weather, although production
will not be restored in areas that had inclement conditions last autumn and earlier this spring to harm production. Net drying is resuming in eastern parts of the Black Sea region and in a part of Russia’s southern eastern New Lands.

           
China’s winter wheat crop is rated favorably, although drying now may be stressing a few of the more immature crops. Spring crops are favorably moist and expected to perform well.

           
Australia’s planting of small grains has advanced well. There is still need for greater rain in many of Australia’s winter crop areas. Queensland, northern and western New South Wales and parts of South Australia and northern Western Australia crop areas need
more rain. South Africa and western Argentina also need more rain.

           
Overall, weather today will likely contribute a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
June 4:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
• FAO
  world food price index, 4am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand commodity price

FRIDAY,
June 5:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for June 1-5

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
Export Sales

No
surprises.  US soybean oil shipments were very good and meal commitments were at the high end of expectations.  Sorghum sales were 93,300 tons and pork sales just over 17,000 tons.  China posted an increase in pork sales of 3,400 tons. 

 

 

 

 

Macros