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FI crop progress tables will be related Tuesday as I am out of the office.


US corn planting 92% (exp 92%) 84% 5yr avg

US corn 69% G/E (exp 71%) 73% yr ago

US soybean planting 83% (exp 82%) 65% 5yr avg

US spring wheat planting 85% (exp 82%) 86% 5yr avg

US winter wheat 34% G/E (exp 32% G/E) 29% yr ago



Corn unchanged to 2c higher

Wheat down 1-4c

KC/Minn unchanged to down 3c

Soybeans unchanged to down 3c


was noted across the board on the improved weather outlook adding more rain and the “hot and dry” talk pushed to the last half of June.  We are still early in the crop cycle to get the market to have a sustained rally on weather.  US HRW wheat areas saw rain
over the weekend, but drought conditions are not expected to improve much










seven days

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seven days

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Weather Inc.


  • The
    heart of the U.S. Midwest will be dry and warm biased into early next week
    • Rain
      is expected late next week and into the following weekend with some cooling as well
      • The
        event will be very important in determining the longer range outlook for the region – if rainfall is limited there may be reason for more market worry
    • World
      Weather, Inc. is still expecting cool weather in late June over the Midwest and if that occurs after the short term break from dry and warm weather next week there may not be much reason for huge market excitement
      • Rainfall
        next week will be very important – early indications suggest it will be timely, but still lighter than usual offering some short term relief from drying, but more rain will be needed
  • Abundant
    moisture falling in the U.S. Plains and periodic rain in Canada’s central Prairies will leave the potential for a strong ridge of high pressure to develop rather low for a while
    • Sufficient
      moisture is going into the ground to provide feedback moisture keeping any ridge building weak for a while
  • West
    Texas rainfall has become frequent and significant enough to restrict planting progress in some grain and cotton production areas
    • Drier
      weather is needed
    • Some
      dryland production areas of West Texas still need greater rain
    • Additional
      showers and thunderstorms over the next ten days will maintain a wetter biased environment, although the dryland areas of the southwest will have need for more moisture
  • Latest
    Pacific Ocean surface water temperature data shows more weakening in the negative PDO
    • Notable
      warming has been occurring in the past couple of weeks off the west coast of North America while cooling is occurring south of the Aleutian Islands
      • Both
        suggest a steady reduction in the intensity of negative PDO, although the event is still significant enough to impact North America weather for several more weeks
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -14.79 and it should move erratically this week
  • El
    Nino continues to evolve
    • Latest
      ocean temperature data shows a slower progress of warming, but the trend is still in place and an El Nino event is likely to be declared in place next month
      • Please
        be sure to recall that El Nino’s influence will first be on the tropics and it will take a few weeks or months for a mid-latitude influence to begin
  • U.S.
    Midwest rainfall is expected to be limited over the coming week, although a few showers will pop up periodically
    • A
      cool front expected next week will bring some cooling and a little increase in rainfall coverage and amounts, but the Gulf of Mexico is still not open as a good moisture source for the Midwest or Delta this week
    • Temperatures
      will be warm, but not excessively hot
    • Rainfall
      this week (ending Sunday) will be too light to counter evaporation in the central and eastern Midwest while 0.20 to 0.75 inch occurs in the western Corn Belt with a few amounts of 0.75 to 1.50 inches
      • Portions
        of Nebraska to Minnesota and eastern North Dakota will be wettest
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will experience restricted rainfall through the next ten days
  • U.S.
    Great Plains precipitation will occur relatively often through the next ten days as atmospheric instability remains setting off isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms relatively often through mid-week next week
    • Rain
      totals of 0.30 to 1.00 inch and local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches are expected with some potential for locally more
      • Amounts
        will vary greatly, though Montana and areas from Nebraska into western Texas will be wettest
  • Washington,
    Oregon and California rainfall will be restricted during the next ten days while showers in Idaho Wyoming and neighboring areas benefits dry bean and sugarbeet development
  • U.S.
    weather Friday through Monday included dry and seasonably warm temperatures across the Midwest and a majority of the Delta
    • Rain
      and very cool temperatures occurred in the Carolinas, eastern Kentucky and Virginia where highs were limited to the 50s and 60s early in the weekend before warming to the lower 70s Sunday and a little warmer Monday
      • Rainfall
        of 1.00 to nearly 3.00 inches resulted across the Carolinas and eastern Georgia while up to 0.50 inch occurred in central and eastern Virginia
      • The
        remainder of the southeastern states were dry
    • Jackson,
      TN reported 1.41 inches of rain from a lone thunderstorm complex that occurred Saturday evening; otherwise the Delta received very little rain and experienced net drying
    • A
      very intense thunderstorms complex that was slow to move or to dissipate occurred at McCook Nebraska where more than six inches of rain fell, but that was an anomaly and not representative of weather in the region during the weekend
    • Thunderstorms
      occurred across much of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle as well as neighboring areas during the weekend with rainfall of 0.50 to 2.00 inches resulting
      • The
        greatest rain fell near and east of a line from Lubbock to Plainview, Texas where several countries received at least some rain of 1.00 to more than 2.00 inches of rain
      • Rainfall
        in the western High Plains of West Texas varied from 0.25 to 0.75 inch with local totals to 1.50 inches
    • Kansas
      rainfall was restricted once again with very little moisture occurring in the driest areas of the state
    • Rain
      was widespread from northeastern Colorado and north-central and northwestern Kansas through western Nebraska to Montana and the western Dakotas with 0.30 to 1.00 inch of rain common and local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches
    • Limited
      rainfall occurred from the U.S. Pacific Northwest through California to the southwestern desert areas
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will get scattered showers and thunderstorms this week, but Alberta’s drought region is not likely to be impacted by much rain leaving the region quite dry
    • Rainfall
      outside of east-central and southern Alberta will be erratic and light until late this week and during the weekend when a boost in rain is expected in Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba
    • Another
      cool front pushing through the eastern Prairies next week will stimulate a few more showers and thunderstorms
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada wheat, corn and soybean areas will experience much warmer temperatures and limited rainfall over the next ten days
    • The
      change will be welcome for a while after a cool and sometimes wet spring
    • Some
      timely rain and cooling will be needed and should occur late next week
  • Europe
    weather will continue drier than usual in the north and Baltic Sea regions for another ten days raising concern over crop and field conditions, although not much heat is expected
    • Northern
      Europe has been drier than usual for an extended period already and the ground is beginning to firm up – rain will be needed soon
    • Southern
      Europe is plenty wet and will likely remain that way for a while
      • Spain
        continues to receive frequent rain along with southern France, Italy and the western Balkan Countries
  • North
    Africa received rain Friday through Monday and more will fall periodically through the next week to ten days
    • The
      rain comes late in the growing season and may be threatening durum wheat quality in Morocco and northwestern Algeria while crop areas to the east may have benefited from recent rain.
  • Russia’s
    New Lands continued to dry down during the weekend with limited rainfall and high temperatures in the 80s Fahrenheit
    • Slowly
      increasing potentials for rain are expected in this coming ten days, though the rain distribution will not be even leaving areas of needed rain
  • China
    reported excessive rain between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers during the weekend
    • Several
      locations in the Yangtze River Basin reported 15.00 to more than 22.00 inches of rain during the past four days
      • Much
        of the rain reported in east-central China varied from 4.00 to 8.00 inches
      • Wettest
        north of the Yangtze River through the Yellow River Valley
        • Fieldwork
          was delayed, but the moisture should prove to be good for summer crop development  in areas that were not flooded
          • Wheat
            areas need to dry down to protect grain quality
  • Xinjiang,
    China temperatures continued cooler than usual during the weekend with highest readings in the 60s and 70s in the northeast and in the 70s and lower 80s in the west
    • Lowest
      morning temperatures were in the upper 40s and 50s in the northeast and the 50s in other areas
  • Xinjiang,
    China will continue cooler than usual
    • Degree
      day accumulations are well below normal and cotton, corn and other crops are not developing normally
    • Warming
      is needed
    • The
      next ten days will continue cooler than usual
  • India
    was wetter than usual during the weekend in northern parts of the nation
    • The
      moisture was good for a few early season crops; including cotton
    • A
      cooler than usual and wetter than usual bias will remain in northern India for the next ten days
  • India’s
    monsoonal precipitation will be well below normal during the first half of June in southern and eastern portions of the nation
  • Thailand,
    Cambodia and Laos rainfall in this coming week will be lighter than usual
    • Some
      beneficial rain fell during the weekend
  • Typhoon
    Mawar was located 238 miles northeast of Luzon Island, Philippines at 1400 GMT today and 352 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan
    • Peak
      wind speeds were reaching 103 mph and gusting to 127 mph
    • The
      storm was expected to turn to the northeast this week resulting in the storm’s passage across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan during mid- to late-week while continuing to weaken
      • Mawar
        should weaken sufficiently to have a low impact on the minor islands of Japan outside of heavy rain, moderately strong wind speeds and rough seas
      • Taiwan
        and Luzon Island, Philippines are not likely to be impacted by the storm
  • Australia
    rainfall during the weekend was greatest in Victoria, southeastern South Australia and southern New South Wales benefiting topsoil moisture and better winter crop establishment
  • Australia
    weather during the next ten days should be unsettled enough to produce rain in some of the more important winter crop areas to help get winter crops better established
    • Resulting
      rainfall will be light, though, leaving need for much more away from the coast
  • South
    Africa rainfall in this coming week will be sufficient to support good wheat, barley and canola emergence and establishment
    • Some
      summer crop harvest delays are likely and some interruption to late season winter crop planting is also expected
      • The
        moisture will help winter crops become better established
  • Argentina
    rainfall will be restricted in this next ten days, but last week’s rain has soil moisture looking very good for planting from Santa Fe and Entre Rios into central and eastern Buenos Aires
    • Western
      Buenos Aires and Cordoba still have a big need for rain and they may have to wait for a while
  • Brazil
    weekend rain in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and immediate neighboring areas was good for Safrinha crops – especially those planted so very late
    • The
      moisture was also good for wheat establishment
    • Additional
      mid-week rain is expected from Mato Grosso to Sao Paulo and Parana bolstering soil moisture for assurance that late planted crops will finish without a serious moisture shortage threatening production
  • Brazil
    sugarcane, citrus and coffee harvest delays are expected briefly this week due to rain, but drier weather will be quick enough to resume to prevent any negative impact
  • Central
    America rainfall is expected frequently over the next ten days supporting improved soil moisture and some better runoff after a slow start to the rainy season
  • Mexico
    rainfall will be confined to the far east and extreme south this week while other areas are dry biased
    • The
      rain will be welcome, but greater amounts will soon be needed in the central and western parts of the nation
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rain frequency and intensity has been and is expected to continue better than advertised last week
    • The
      pattern will perpetuate favorable crop conditions from rice and sugarcane to oil palm, coconut and rubber development
  • Philippines
    rainfall will remain well mixed with sunshine over the next ten days
  • West-central
    Africa will continue to receive periodic rainfall over the next two weeks and that will prove favorable for main season coffee, cocoa and sugarcane
    • Some
      cotton areas would benefit from greater rain, though the precipitation that has occurred has been welcome
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall has been favorable for coffee, cocoa and other crops in recent weeks with little change likely
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop weather has been relatively good this year with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall reported
    • The
      favorable environment will continue

World Weather, INC.










Ag calendar

May 30:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • US
    planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm
  • US
    cotton and winter wheat condition, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

May 31:

  • US
    agricultural prices paid, received
  • Malaysia’s
    May palm oil exports

June 1:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 11am
  • USDA
    soybean crush, corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

June 2:

  • FAO
    food price index, monthly grains report
  • USDA
    weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
    Italy, Indonesia

Bloomberg and FI



inspections versus Reuters trade range

382,031                 versus   200000-600000  range

1,313,411             versus   600000-1400000                range

239,736                 versus   100000-400000  range










GRAIN      05/25/2023  05/18/2023  05/26/2022    TO DATE     TO DATE  


0           0          73        2,154       10,229 

1,313,411   1,326,281   1,412,248   28,691,303   42,308,082 

0           0           0          200          324 

0           0           0            0            0 

0           0           0        6,686          600 

0           0           0            0            0 

33,169     116,048     144,690    1,669,067    6,120,819 

239,736     166,590     404,350   48,450,848   49,550,493 

0           0           0        2,508        2,260 

382,031     440,094     344,319   19,557,889   19,997,455 

1,968,347   2,049,013   2,305,680   98,380,655  117,990,262