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Spot
US corn basis remains very strong and that supported the spread today. Meanwhile traders are weighing in the possibility of a large US corn abandonment as some locations has reach their respected planting insurance dates this week. Soybean oil was higher in
part to higher WTI crude oil. Soybean meal fell and that weighed on soybeans. Wheat was lower on profit taking, Black Sea competition and an IL wheat tour report suggesting the states soft red winter yield could be much higher than USDA’s current projection. 

 

Weather

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World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Super
    Typhoon Mawar overran Guam and the southern Mariana Islands earlier today producing wind speeds of more than 130 mph near its center with gusts to 167 mph.
    • Serious
      damage is suspected to Guam and a few neighboring Islands
    • The
      storm will now track toward Taiwan and northeastern Luzon Island in the northern Philippines, but a turn to the northeast prior to reaching those areas is still possible, although there is potential for a continued northwesterly track possibly impacting Taiwan
      and/or China
  • Rain
    in western Alberta, Canada over the past two days has been significant in the Peace River Region and in the Swan Hills region which is mostly in far western Alberta
    • Moisture
      totals of 1.00 to nearly 2.50 inches has occurred inducing much improved soil moisture after the ground became too dry recently
    • Other
      areas in western and northern Alberta have reported lighter rain that was also beneficial, though there is need for more rain
    • Drought
      remains in east-central and interior southern Alberta where not much change is expected for a while
  • Rain
    is expected in much of central and eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada during the coming week offering the first generalized rain seen in a very long time
    • Rain
      totals of 0.50 to 1.50 inches and locally more than 2.00 inches are expected by this time next week
    • The
      moisture will help improve future planting conditions and will stimulate improved germination, plant emergence and establishment
    • Southeastern
      Manitoba will be driest as will far western parts of Saskatchewan
  • Quebec
    and Ontario, Canada will begin warming while receiving limited rain and will do so again Thursday, though the impact on wheat has been minimal and most of the corn and soybeans are not emerged
    • Frost
      and freezes will occur again Thursday morning in Quebec without inducing any serious damage to wheat or summer crops
  • U.S.
    Midwest will be dry and warm over the next week to ten days

    with daily highs in the 70s and 80s occurring often followed by lows in the 40s and 50s
    • The
      exception will be Thursday when a cool airmass will slip through the northeast and central parts of the region bringing down high temperatures to the 60s and 70s
      • The
        frontal system will retreat to the north Friday and Saturday opening the door of opportunity for multiple days of 80-degree highs beginning this weekend and last through the first half of next week
    • Rapid
      planting, quick seed germination and good crop emergence conditions are likely throughout the week
    • Some
      beneficial rainfall and continued seasonably warm weather is expected in early June, although temperatures will trend cooler
      • The
        rain anticipated in early June will continue lighter than usual
    • Overall,
      weather will be very good fieldwork and crop development over the next two weeks
      • Some
        pockets of dryness are expected to evolve and subsoil moisture will continue quite favorable. A close watch on the dry conditions will be warranted in June especially if temperatures turn warmer than usual
    • Winter
      crop development will continue to advance quite favorably
  • U.S.
    Hard Red Winter wheat and West Texas crop areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms this week favoring crop development and fieldwork
    • West
      Texas rain totals for the next ten days will vary from 0.75 to 1.75 inches in the high Plains and 1.00 to 3.00 inches from the Low Plains into the Rolling Plains with local totals over 4.00 inches in the latter area
  • U.S.
    Delta will experience net drying conditions over the coming week to ten days
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks with some areas getting beneficial moisture while others will not and net drying will result
  • A
    tropical or subtropical low pressure center will form off the Florida coast late this week and into the weekend that may enhance rainfall along the lower U.S. Atlantic Coast Friday into the weekend
    • Preliminary
      rainfall may vary from 2.00 to 6.00 inches impacting coastal areas of the Carolinas and possibly a part of eastern Georgia and/or southeastern Virginia
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will be dry and warm biased during much of the coming ten days in the Yakima Valley while other areas experience scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week into next week with only light rain resulting, but it will be welcome and
    beneficial
  • U.S.
    northwestern Plains will get some welcome rain the remainder of this week into the weekend
    • The
      moisture will be ideal for spring and summer crops, although it will disrupt fieldwork
  • U.S.
    northeastern Plains will experience less frequent and less significant rain during the coming ten days supporting improved drying conditions and better field working opportunities
    • Temperatures
      will warm to the 80s Fahrenheit as well for a few days late this week and into the weekend
  • Argentina
    will experience additional rainfall during the coming week
    • Additional
      rain will be greatest in the central and east leaving some of the southwestern most winter crop areas in need of greater planting moisture
    • Fieldwork
      will advance swiftly in the central and eastern wheat areas after the rain ends this week, though more rain will be needed to ensure ideal conditions later this autumn
    • Concern
      over western dryness may continue for a while, but the situation will not be critical unless June turns out to be drier than usual as well
    • Temperatures
      will trend cooler in Argentina later this week and through the weekend
      • That
        will conserve soil moisture through lower evaporation so that winter seed germination and plant emergence occur favorably once drier weather resumes
  • Center
    south Brazil weather will be dry biased the remainder of this week and temperatures will be warmer than usual
    • Net
      drying is expected and unirrigated Safrinha crops will become more stressed
      • Early
        maturing corn will be maturing and should not be seriously stressed by the environment
  • Well-timed
    rain will fall in Safrinha crop areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paul and Parana early next week resulting in a perfectly timed improvement in topsoil moisture to carry late planting corn through reproduction in a favorable manner
  • Mato
    Grosso and Goias may not be included in the rain event next week and crop moisture stress may continue to rise, although there is only a small amount of very late crop development in these areas relative to the remainder of the Safrinha crop region which should
    limit the downside for production
  • Cooling
    after early next week’s southern Brazil rain event may bring down temperatures into the 40s Fahrenheit, but no frost event is presently anticipated
  • Southern
    Europe will continue wetter than northern Europe this week and next week as well
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable to slightly warmer than usual and that may lead to some gradual drying in the north raising the need for moisture in June, but fieldwork will advance well over this next ten days while rainfall continues minimal
    • Southern
      Europe will need some drier days and perhaps some warmer temperatures to stimulate the best crop development
      • Fieldwork
        will advance slowly because of frequent rain
    • The
      moisture in Spain will be very helpful in easing long term dryness, but the wetter biased conditions may raise some winter crop quality issues
  • CIS
    New Lands will be dry and warm over the next ten days resulting in net drying and a high potential for pockets of dryness to evolve
    • The
      situation will be closely monitored, although no area will become critically dry in this first week of the outlook
    • A
      few showers may occur in the second week of the forecast, but resulting rainfall will not be enough to change crop or field conditions in a significant manner
  • Western
    CIS weather over the next ten days will include warm temperatures for a while and then some cooling and periods of rain
    • Eastern
      Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region northward through the Volga River Basin to western Russia will receive widespread rain over the next ten days slowing fieldwork, but benefiting soil moisture and future crop development
  • Greater
    than usual rain is expected in northern India later this week and into the weekend
    • The
      wet weather will disrupt farming activity; including the harvest of winter crops
    • The
      moisture will support early season cotton development and help prepare the soil for summer crop planting
  • Mainland
    Southeast Asia rainfall will steadily increase later this week into next week bringing relief from early season dryness
    • Improved
      rice and corn planting conditions are expected
    • Improved
      sugarcane, coffee and other crop development is also likely as well
    • Water
      supply in the region is below average and concern is rising over water supply when El Nino kicks in and starts reducing summer rainfall which makes the greater rain forthcoming all the more important
  • China
    weather is still expected to be well mixed over the next two weeks as it has been during much of the spring season