PDF Attached

 

Calls
are objective. Two-sided seen. US
winter wheat conditions improved two percentage points, as expected by FI. Soybean plantings and corn were near expectations, but spring wheat needs to catch up. We don’t see a planting issue for summer crops but remain concerned over overall precip for June/July.
USDA: Private exporters reported sales of 225,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

 

US
debt ceiling talks are ongoing.
Technical
buying in ags was seen today (bottom picking). Soybean and corn nearby spreads were very firm in part of lack of US producer selling. The recent drop in gain prices attracted some major importers (corn and wheat). Soybean CBOT crush margins were lower in part
to limited gains in soybean meal. Soybean oil gained ground over soybean meal from oversold oil share conditions.

 

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Fund
estimates as of May 22

 

 

Weather

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

Soil Moisture Pecentile for the last Day of month

 

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World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Tropical
    Cyclone Mawar will overrun Guam and the southern Mariana Islands in the southwestern Pacific Ocean during mid-week this week resulting in some property damage
    • The
      storm will become intense and could move toward the Philippines and/or Taiwan this coming weekend into early next week
      • The
        storm should be closely monitored because of its intensity and quick movement
    • Serious
      damage is expected to Guam and a few neighboring Islands Tuesday and Wednesday due to predicted wind speeds of 127 mph and gusts to more than 150mph
  • Rain
    will fall significantly in western Alberta, Canada early this week with 0.75 inch to 2.00 inches common and a potential for 2.00 to 3.00 inches in a few areas near Swan Hills and the Peace River Region
    • Relief
      from recent drying will be welcome and should improve long term crop development potential even through fieldwork will be slowed
  • Rain
    is also expected in portions of central and eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada during the middle to latter part of this week with rainfall sufficient to support recently planted seed germination, plant emergence and improved establishment
    • The
      moisture will also help improve future planting conditions
  • Drought
    in east-central and southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan, Canada may not change this week, despite a few showers
    • Next
      week may not be much different
  • Quebec
    experienced additional frost and freezes this morning and will do so again later this week, though the impact on wheat has been minimal and most of the corn and soybeans are not emerged
  • U.S.
    Midwest will be dry and warm this week with daily highs in the 80s Fahrenheit early this week and in the 70s and lower 80s late this week into next week
    • Rapid
      planting, quick seed germination and good crop emergence conditions are likely throughout the week
    • Timely
      rainfall and continued seasonably warm weather is expected next week
    • Overall,
      weather will be very good fieldwork and crop development over the next two weeks
      • Some
        pockets of dryness are expected to evolve, but they are not likely to be widespread and subsoil moisture will continue quite favorable
    • Winter
      crop development will continue to advance quite favorably
  • U.S.
    Hard Red Winter wheat and West Texas crop areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms this week favoring crop development and fieldwork
    • West
      Texas crop areas near the New Mexico border will be driest; including some dryland production areas
      • West
        Texas rain totals for the next ten days will vary from 0.50 to 1.50 inches in the high Plains and 1.00 to 3.00 inches from the Low Plains into the Rolling Plains
  • U.S.
    Delta will experience net drying conditions over the coming week
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks with some areas getting beneficial moisture while others will not and net drying will result
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will be dry and warm biased during much of the forecast period in the Yakima Valley while other areas experience scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week into next week with only light rain resulting, but it will be welcome and
    beneficial
  • U.S.
    northern Plains will get some welcome rain later this week into the weekend, though dry weather until then will be equally good for spring and summer crop progress
  • U.S.
    weekend precipitation included most of the eastern and lower Midwest, Delta the southeastern states and portions of the southern Plains
    • Net
      drying did occur in the lower Delta, the western high Plains region all of the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt as well as portions of eastern and southern Texas and the far southeastern corner of the nation
  • Argentina
    rain was significant enough to raise topsoil moisture in the east half of Argentina during the weekend
    • Highly
      varying amounts of rain resulted with only 50% of the region experiencing enough rain to notably improve soil moisture
  • Argentina
    will experience additional rainfall during the coming week before dry weather resumes
    • Additional
      rain will be greatest in the central and east leaving some of the western most winter crop areas in need of greater planting moisture
    • Fieldwork
      will advance swiftly in the central and eastern wheat areas after the rain ends this week, though more rain will be needed to ensure ideal conditions later this autumn
    • Concern
      over western dryness may continue for a while, but the situation will not be critical unless June turns out to be drier than usual as well
    • Temperatures
      will trend cooler in Argentina later this week and through the weekend
      • That
        will conserve soil moisture through lower evaporation so that winter seed germination and plant emergence occur favorably once drier weather resumes
  • Center
    south Brazil weather will be dry biased through the coming week as it was during the weekend; temperatures will be warmer than usual
    • Net
      drying is expected and unirrigated Safrinha crops will become more stressed
  • Well-timed
    rain will fall in Safrinha crop areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paul and Parana early next week resulting in a perfectly timed improvement in topsoil moisture to carry late planting corn through reproduction in a favorable manner
  • Mato
    Grosso and Goias may not be included in the rain event next week and crop moisture stress may continue to rise, although there is only a small amount of very late crop development in these areas relative to the remainder of the Safrinha crop region which should
    limit the downside for production
    • Some
      recent computer forecast model runs are introducing rain for southern Mato Grosso and Goias, but confidence is not high
  • Cooling
    after early next week’s southern Brazil rain event may bring down temperatures into the 40s Fahrenheit, but no frost event is presently anticipated
  • Southern
    Europe will continue wetter than northern Europe this week and next week as well
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable to slightly warmer than usual and that may lead to some gradual drying in the north raising the need for moisture in June, but fieldwork will advance well over this next ten days while rainfall continues minimal
    • Southern
      Europe will need some drier days and perhaps some warmer temperatures to stimulate the best crop development
      • Fieldwork
        will advance slowly because of frequent rain
    • The
      moisture in Spain will be very helpful in easing long term dryness, but the wetter biased conditions may raise some winter crop quality issues
  • CIS
    New Lands will be dry and warm over the next ten days resulting in net drying and a high potential for pockets of dryness to evolve
    • The
      situation will be closely monitored, although no area will become critically dry in this first week of the outlook
    • Rain
      prospects will improve next week with some timely moisture possible