PDF Attached

 

Attached
are our updated US corn & wheat balance sheets. We lowered our corn crop year average for 2022-23 from $6.30 to $6.00.
2023-24
wheat was left unchanged.

 

Grains
and the soybean traded two-sided on Friday, ending lower. The US weather forecast for the Midwest turned slightly unfavorable from that of yesterday. Limited rains in central areas next week may allow stress to build.
Meanwhile US HRW wheat weather will gradually improve. The US failed to reach a compromise over the debt ceiling. WTI crude oil was 27 cents lower earlier (ended the day only down 6 cents) and USD 40 points lower
as of 1:50 pm CT.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 19

 

 

Weather

 

 

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Frost
    and freezes occurred this morning from the western Dakotas and eastern Montana into Saskatchewan
    • Lows
      dropped to 28 Fahrenheit in several areas, although very little crop was emerged or established enough to be permanently damaged
  • Another
    round of frost and freezes are expected in eastern Ontario and Quebec, Canada  Sunday into Monday, but the impact should be minimal after the hard freezes that occurred earlier this week
  • Argentina
    rain expected over the next ten days will be more than sufficient to bolster topsoil moisture for wheat planting
    • Showers
      this week have been too brief and light for a serious change to soil moisture, but that was to be expected
    • Additional
      waves of rain in the coming week to ten days will change that situation greatly bring sufficient topsoil moisture for seeding of wheat
      • Subsoil
        moisture will continue lighter than usual
  • Brazil’s
    center south and center west crop areas will continue in a net drying mode for the next two weeks – which is normal for this time of year
    • Coffee
      and sugarcane areas will also experience good maturation and harvest weather
    • A
      few fields of corn and cotton in Mato Grosso and Goias that were planted late may experience a reduction in yield potential, but the bulk of crop has made it through the most moisture sensitive stage without much trouble
    • Safrinha
      corn in Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Parana is much farther behind in their development than areas to the north, but soil moisture is still very well rated which should carry normal crop development into early June without much problem
    • There
      is no risk of crop threatening cold during the next two weeks
  • U.S
    Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will continue to experience a very good mix of weather for aggressive planting and early season crop development
    • Warmer
      temperatures next week will accelerate drying rates and stimulate faster plant growth rates leading to a need for greater rainfall in June, especially while rainfall is lighter than usual as it should be for the next couple of weeks
  • European
    forecast model suggested very little rain would fall in the U.S. Midwest during the next ten days and frequent temperatures in the 70s and 80s would induce some steady drying
    • The
       forecast may be a little too dry, but the GFS is much too wet
    • June
      weather is expected to be dominated by a high pressure ridge in the middle of the nation and its strength will determine how much of the Midwest will be dry
      • Late
        June is still advertised cooler once again – at least in the eastern Midwest
  • Significant
    rain fell in central western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle overnight bolstering topsoil moisture for winter wheat and spring and summer crops
    • Rainfall
      of 1.00 to 2.00 inches occurred often with Doppler radar suggesting some greater amounts
    • The
      moisture comes a little late for some of the wheat crop, but there should be some improvement in yield and grain quality
    • Summer
      crops will benefit most from the precipitation with a much better planting, germinating and emergence environment resulting from recent rain
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will continue warmer and drier than usual for a while longer
    • Unirrigated
      crops are stressed especially in the Yakima Basin of Washington
    • Relief
      from dryness in the Pacific Northwest is not very likely for an extended period of time
  • West
    Texas planting moisture will be favorable, but the region will not get a good soaking to fix poor subsoil moisture in unirrigated crop areas
    • Showers
      and thunderstorms will be in the forecast nightly across the region during the next ten days, but resulting rainfall will be erratic and coverage a little too sporadic
  • U.S.
    temperatures this weekend will be very warm in the far western states and near normal in much of the central and east, although the southwestern Plains will be cooler biased for a while
    • Warmer
      biased temperatures are likely many key crop areas except in the southwestern Plains and Gulf of Mexico Coast States next week
      • Frequent
        highs in the 70s and 80s are likely from the northern Plains into the Midwest
  • Southern
    Europe weather will continue active with frequent bouts of rain expected through the next week and possibly for ten days
    • The
      moisture will delay some planting and could raise a little concern over crop quality in a few areas
  • Northern
    Europe will be drier biased, although not completely dry
    • The
      environment will be good for planting, emergence and establishment
  • North
    Africa will receive greater than usual rainfall over the next week to ten days resulting in a possible crop quality concern for early maturing wheat and barley in Morocco and northwestern Algeria
    • Crops
      in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia are expected to benefit from their rain since crops should be in the reproductive and filling stages of development
  • China
    weather will continue a little wetter biased in rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River valley and areas to the south where some drying might be best for maturation and harvesting
  • East-central
    China (between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers) will experience a good mix of weather during the next ten days favoring crop development and additional planting
  • Northern
    China drying has not presented much of a problem, though some spring wheat and sugarbeet areas in eastern Inner Mongolia are too dry
    • Some
      of this dryness has been expanding to the west and south recently including northern Hebei
      • Central
        parts of Inner Mongolia and portions of the northern Yellow River Basin may become influenced by the drier bias over time, though conditions today are still very good in those areas
  • Xinjiang,
    China remains too cold in the northeast for ideal corn or cotton development
    • Western
      parts of Xinjiang where much of the cotton is produced,  has had a few days of very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and lower to a few middle 90s Fahrenheit
      • The
        heat has begun to improve crops in the west and the warmer conditions should prevail for a while
    • Some
      cooling is expected in western cotton areas this weekend and next week
  • India
    weather is quite favorable for this time of year with pre-monsoonal showers occurring in the south and east while drying occurs in many other areas supporting good harvest conditions
    • Rainfall
      was increased in northern India for next week, but some of the precipitation advertised may be overdone on today’s forecast models
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands may slowly dry down over the next ten days, but crop conditions should remain mostly favorable during this period of time
  • Western
    Russia and eastern Ukraine will experience timely rainfall during the next ten days supporting good crop conditions
  • Philippines
    and western Indonesia soil moisture firmed up a little during the past week due to more infrequent and light rainfall
    • The
      region is expecting to get more significant rain in this coming week
  • Western
    and northern Alberta, Canada will receive significant rain early next week and that will bolster soil moisture after recent hot and dry weather