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Bearish
fundamental developments today. Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey all confirmed a 60-day Black Sea grain export safe passage extension deal.
We
updated our price ranges for selected major markets. The deal sent the CBOT agriculture markets lower. On a weekly rolling basis, CBOT corn hit its lowest level since November 2021, Chicago wheat near a two-week low and soybean oil at a February 2021 low.
Oil share was hit hard again today from product spreading. Nearby KC wheat was on the defensive, but losses were limited from early poor results from the annual US winter wheat crop tour. The July KC contract continues to hold a large premium over July Chicago.
We would not fade that spread until the US crop tour data is digested in the market. Meanwhile, China cancelled
272,000
tons of corn for delivery during the 2022-23 marketing year. USDA commitments are expected to drop for China by a large amount when updated Thursday morning and could justify another 25-50 million bushel cut by USDA when they update their balance sheet next
month. 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 17

 

Weather

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

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Description automatically generated with low confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Argentina
    is still in a good position to receive rain for wheat planting later this week and especially next week
    • Sufficient
      rain over the next ten days will occur to support fieldwork
  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha crop areas have no risk of crop damaging cold over the next two weeks and seasonably dry weather will prevail in all corn and cotton production areas
    • Sufficient
      moisture will remain in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo to support late planted crops into the first days of June without rain
    • Mato
      Grosso and Goias are trending drier and will need a little rain for the latest planted crops, but conditions are mostly good for the bulk of corn
      • Cotton
        might end up with the greatest need for rain in Mato Grosso
  • Australia
    rainfall has been timely in recent weeks, although amounts have often been lighter than usual in the interior west and across most of South Australia as well as some western production areas of both Queensland and New South Wales production areas
    • Greater
      rain will be needed in the drier areas, but fieldwork is advancing well
  • China
    weather will continue a little wetter biased in rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River valley and areas to the south where some drying might be best for maturation and harvesting
  • Northern
    China drying has not presented much of a problem, though some spring wheat and sugarbeet areas in eastern Inner Mongolia are too dry
    • Some
      of this dryness has been expanding to the west and south recently including northern Hebei
      • Central
        parts of Inner Mongolia and portions of the northern Yellow River Basin may become influenced by the drier bias over time, though conditions today are still very good in those areas
  • Xinjiang,
    China remains too cold in the northeast for ideal corn or cotton development
    • Western
      parts of Xinjiang where much of the cotton is produced,  has had two days of very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and lower to a few 90s Fahrenheit
      • The
        heat has begun to improve crops in the west and the warmer conditions should prevail for a while
  • India
    weather is quite favorable for this time of year with pre-monsoonal showers occurring in the south and east while drying occurs in many other areas supporting good harvest conditions
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands may slowly dry down over the next ten days, but crop conditions should remain mostly favorable during this period of time
  • Western
    Russia and eastern Ukraine will experience timely rainfall during the next ten days supporting good crop conditions
  • Southern
    Europe weather will continue active with frequent bouts of rain expected through the next week and possibly for ten days
    • The
      moisture will delay some planting and could raise a little concern over crop quality in a few areas
  • Northern
    Europe will be drier biased, although not completely dry
    • The
      environment will be good for planting, emergence and establishment
  • North
    Africa will receive greater than usual rainfall over the next week to ten days resulting in a possible crop quality concern for early maturing wheat and barley in Morocco and northwestern Algeria
    • Crops
      in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia are expected to benefit from their rain since crops should be in the reproductive and filling stages of development
  • Philippines
    and western Indonesia soil moisture firmed up a little during the past week due to more infrequent and light rainfall
    • The
      region is expecting to get more significant rain in this coming week
    • A
      tropical disturbance may help to enhance Luzon Island rainfall while Madden Julian Oscillation will help bring rain to Sumatra and other western Indonesia crop areas
  • Frost
    and Freezes in North America over the next week will have no permanent impact on crops
    • Ontario
      and Quebec will be coldest today and Thursday and again Sunday into Monday with lows in the 20s and 30s Fahrenheit
      • Some
        of this cold will also impact the northeastern U.S.
    • Parts
      of Canada’s eastern Prairies will see frost and a few light freezes Thursday and Friday with no permanent impact on crops
      • most
        low temperatures will be in the 30s Fahrenheit with no temperatures colder than 30
    • Patches
      of soft frost cannot be ruled out in North Dakota and immediate neighboring areas Friday; although, the impact will be minimal Lows will be fall to the 30s Fahrenheit with a slight risk of a county or two getting to 28 or 29 briefly.
  • Canada’s
    Prairies may experience some increase in rainfall during the middle to latter part of next week, although confidence is low on how significant the moisture will be in the drought region
    • Any
      rain would be welcome
    • Drought
      remains serious in east-central and interior southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan with no rain and waves of heat likely in this first week of the outlook
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas of Kansas, southeastern Colorado, the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will have a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with a few showers beginning tonight
    • Rainfall
      of 0.30 to 0.90 inch and local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches will be possible
    • Scattered
      showers and thunderstorms may resume during the weekend and continue periodically through the last days of May
      • These
        will be erratic, near-daily, showers and thunderstorms that will slow fieldwork, but add moisture for spring and summer crops and may help improve conditions for “some” wheat
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains, Canada’s Prairies and much of the northwestern U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt will be drier biased over this first week of the outlook
  • U.S.
    crop weather in general over the next ten days to two weeks will be favorably mixed providing time for planting and moisture for emergence and establishment
    • This
      includes most of the Midwest, the Great Plains, Delta and southeastern states
    • Soil
      moisture in most of these areas is already rated favorably
  • U.S.
    temperatures in the coming week will be very warm in the far western states and near normal in much of the central and east, although the southwestern Plains will be cooler biased for a while
    • Warmer
      biased temperatures are likely many key crop areas except in the southwestern Plains and Gulf of Mexico Coast States next week
  • South
    Africa weather will be trending drier in the coming week to ten days after rain fell Monday and will linger in the northeast  today
    • Summer
      crop harvesting and winter crop planting will advance swiftly in the next two weeks with some need for greater rain in western wheat areas
  • West
    Africa weather continues to generate timely rainfall for coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and rice
    • Rainfall
      in the most recent 30 days was a little lighter than usual in southeastern Nigeria and western Cameroon as well as from northern Ivory Coast into southwestern Burkina Faso impacting cotton areas
    • Crop
      conditions should remain mostly good, although the drier areas would benefit from greater rain
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall has been favorable for coffee, cocoa and other crops in recent weeks with little change likely
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop weather has been relatively good this year with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall reported
    • The
      favorable environment will continue
  • Mexico
    rainfall is expected to steadily increase over the central and eastern parts of the nation during the next ten days improving soil moisture for future planting of summer crops
    • Western
      Mexico will continue quite dry
  • Central
    America rainfall is expected to be erratic, although mostly favorable during the next two weeks
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Fabien in the Indian Ocean poses no threat to land
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -6.37 and it should move erratically lower over the next several days

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
May 18:

  • China’s
    2nd batch of April trade data, including agricultural imports
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Australian Agricultural Co.
  • HOLIDAY:
    France, Germany, Indonesia

Friday,
May 19:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
  • US
    Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Saturday,
May 20:

  • China’s
    3rd batch of April trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

Macros

103
Counterparties Take $2.214 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op. (prev 101 Counterparties, $2.203 Tln)

US
Housing Starts (M/M) Apr: 2.2% (est -1.4%; prevR -4.5%)

US
Building Permits (M/M) Apr: -1.5% (est 0.0%; prevR -3.0%)

US
Housing Starts Apr: 1401K (est 1400K; prevR 1371K)

US
Building Permits Apr: 1416K (est 1430K; prevR 1437K)

US
DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 12-May: 5040K (est -2000K; prev -2951K)

Distillate:
80K (est -1500K; prev -4170K)

Cushing
OK Crude: 1461K (prev +397K)

Gasoline:
-1381K (est -2000K; prev -3167K)

Refinery
Utilisation: 1.00% (est 0.60%; prev 0.30%)

President
Biden: Am Confident We Will Get Budget Agreement, America Will Not Default

President
Biden: Negotiators Will Be Meeting Again Today

Will
Be In Close Touch With Negotiators During Trip