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school thought? “Turnaround Tuesday”. CBOT grains and the soybean complex traded lower. Trading was slow in part to a US biofuel conference that started today and favorable US weather as traders relook at supplies. China tossed a wrench into the short-term
agriculture bull machine by reporting poor April economic data that rippled into their currency valuation against the USD. Some are doubting the covid recovery has positively impacted business efforts after a Monday report that showed a rebound in energy consumption
by that country. China industrial production for April rose by 5.6% year-on-year, below 10.9% expected, and retail sales increased 18.4%, below 21% trade average. China stock composites didn’t tank, a good sign, however, market sentiment remains frail, according
to market reports. US wheat conditions last week were unchanged after a second rainy week for the first “H” of May for parts of the Great Plains, one point below expectations,
while summer (US) planting progress is moving along at a rapid pace for corn and soybeans across the US Midwest. Ironically echoes an Argentina crop year production cycle. A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 16,000 thousand barrels
to 981k (960-995 range) from the previous week and stocks up 45,000 barrels to 23.291 million.


have a bias to soon lower(our 2023-24 crop year price outlooks if NA weather remains favorable.  Current estimates below.  Note the 2019-20 crop year when weather was mostly favorable. Below is our
previous price 2023-24 forecast.




estimates as of May 16







weather forecast is ideal for early corn second crop corn harvest progress.

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast


A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with low confidence


Weather Inc.


  • Frost
    and Freezes in North America over the next week will have no permanent impact on crops
    • Ontario
      and Quebec will be coldest Wednesday and again this weekend with lows in the 20s and 30s Fahrenheit
    • Parts
      of Canada’s eastern Prairies will see frost and a few light freezes Thursday and Friday with no permanent impact on crops
    • Patches
      of soft frost cannot be ruled out in North Dakota or northern Minnesota Friday either, although the impact will be minimal
  • Canada’s
    Prairies may experience some increase in rainfall during the middle to latter part of next week, although confidence is low on how significant the moisture will be in the drought region
    • Any
      rain would be welcome
    • Drought
      remains serious in east-central and interior southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan with no rain and waves of heat likely in this first week of the outlook
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas of Kansas, southeastern Colorado, the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will have a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with a few showers beginning Wednesday night
    • Rainfall
      of 0.30 to 0.90 inch and local totals over 1.25 inches will be possible
    • Scattered
      showers and thunderstorms may resume during the weekend and continue periodically through the last days of May
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains, Canada’s Prairies and much of the northwestern U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt will be drier biased over this first week of the outlook
  • U.S.
    crop weather in general over the next ten days to two weeks will be favorably mixed providing time for planting and moisture for emergence and establishment
    • This
      includes most of the Midwest, the Great Plains, Delta and southeastern states
  • U.S.
    temperatures in the coming week will be very warm in the far western states and near normal in much of the central and east, although the southwestern Plains will be cooler biased for a while
    • Warmer
      biased temperatures are likely many key crop areas except in the southwestern Plains next week
  • Argentina
    weather is still expected to slowly become more active with waves of timely rain to bolster planting moisture in winter wheat areas
    • The
      precipitation will slow late summer crop harvesting, but there will be no quality issues
  • Brazil’s
    center west and center south crop areas will continue seasonably dry biased over the next ten days
    • Safrinha
      crops will continue to develop well, although some rain may be needed soon in Mato Grosso and Goias where the topsoil is becoming quite dry and subsoil moisture is in decline
      • Early
        planted corn and cotton has performed extremely well
    • Late
      planted Safrinha corn in Sao Paulo, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul is developing well with little change due to adequate soil moisture
  • Portions
    of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraguay will get rain next week for late season crops and winter wheat
  • Southern
    Europe will be plenty wet for a while keeping field progress running a little slow, but long term soil conditions will be good for winter and spring crops
  • Northern
    Europe precipitation will be limited over the next ten days and temperatures will trend a little warmer over time
    • The
      environment will be good for fieldwork and crop development
  • Russia,
    Ukraine, Belarus and Baltic States will see a good mix of weather during the next ten days favoring fieldwork and normal crop development
  • A
    few areas in northern Kazakhstan and neighboring areas of Russia would still benefit from greater rain, although recent rain was welcome
    • The
      region should be closely monitored for drying later this year
  • China’s
    weather remains favorably mixed in the Northeast, North China Plain and Yellow River Basin
    • Some
      drought conditions remain in Inner Mongolia and northern Hebei
    • Excessive
      soil moisture is expected again in areas near and south of the Yangtze River over the next couple of weeks
      • The
        precipitation may disrupt rapeseed maturation and harvesting
      • Some
        rapeseed quality declines are possible
  • India’s
    weather will be normal for this time of year over the balance of this month
  • Thailand,
    Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia will experience net drying over the next several days and then rain will resume again during the weekend and next week
    • The
      region would benefit from greater precipitation
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall is becoming more erratic and next week’s precipitation may be light enough to induce net drying
    • Crop
      moisture should remain favorable for a while, but developing El Nino conditions will impact these nations soon with lighter than usual rainfall and net drying
  • Philippines
    weather will be favorably mixed for a while, but a tropical disturbance near the west coast of Luzon may eventually enhance rainfall across the island while other areas experience a more favorable mix of rain and sunshine
  • Australia
    rainfall will be mostly confined to coastal areas for the next ten days
    • Planting
      will proceed, but some greater precipitation may be needed in the next few weeks to induce the best possible stands
  • Australia
    rainfall Monday in southeastern Queensland and far northeastern New South Wales was good for future wheat and barley emergence and establishment
    • Fieldwork
      was disrupted in the region briefly, but should accelerate as net drying develops
  • South
    Africa weather will be trending drier in the coming week to ten days after rain fell Monday and will linger in the northeast  today
    • Summer
      crop harvesting and winter crop planting will advance swiftly in the next two weeks with some need for greater rain in western wheat areas
  • West
    Africa weather continues to generate timely rainfall for coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and rice
    • Rainfall
      in the most recent 30 days was a little lighter than usual in southeastern Nigeria and western Cameroon as well as from northern Ivory Coast into southwestern Burkina Faso impacting cotton areas
    • Crop
      conditions should remain mostly good, although the drier areas would benefit from greater rain
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall has been favorable for coffee, cocoa and other crops in recent weeks with little change likely
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop weather has been relatively good this year with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall reported
    • The
      favorable environment will continue
  • Mexico
    rainfall is expected to steadily increase over the next ten days improving soil moisture for future planting of summer crops
    • Western
      Mexico will continue quite dry
  • Central
    America rainfall is expected to be erratic, although mostly favorable during the next two weeks
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Fabien in the India Ocean poses no threat to land
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -6.24 and it should move erratically lower over the next several days

World Weather, INC.


Ag calendar

May 16:

  • Future
    Food Asia 2023 conference in Singapore, day 1
  • French
    agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • GrainCom
    conference in Geneva, day 2
  • New
    Zealand dairy trade auction

May 17:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Future
    Food Asia 2023 conference in Singapore, day 2
  • GrainCom
    conference in Geneva, day 3

May 18:

  • China’s
    2nd batch of April trade data, including agricultural imports
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports