PDF Attached

 

 

As
we learned last week, most CME/CBOT pits are now permanently closed.  Video link provided takes us back what they used to look like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a25jc54YFzo

 

Weather

 

Next
7 days

 

Last
7 days

 

World
Weather, Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD

  • Tropical
    cyclone 1A is developing off the lower west coast of India and promises to become a significant tropical cyclone this weekend and early next week before moving inland during mid-week next week over western Gujarat and/or southeastern Pakistan
    • Property
      damage is expected along with some loss of early season summer crops and unharvested winter crops
      • Agricultural
        losses are expected to be low and there is plenty of time to replant some crops
      • Winter
        crop harvesting should be quite advanced across some of the threatened production areas
  • Some
    frost and freezes occurred this morning in minor crop areas of far southern and extreme northeastern Rio Grande do Sul into southeastern Santa Catarina
    • The
      cold missed all of the most important crop areas and should have had a minimal impact
  • Canada’s
    eastern Prairies are not likely to see much significant rainfall over the coming week, although a few sporadic showers will continue to tease some of the region with minimal amounts of moisture
    • Alberta
      and far western Saskatchewan have some potential to receive meaningful rain late next week into the following weekend, but there is plenty of time for the advertised storm to change
    • Temperatures
      will turn very warm to hot in the eastern Canada Prairies during the late weekend through early half of next week
  • The
    northern U.S. Plains are not expecting very much “meaningful” rain over the next week and concern over drought will expand this late weekend into early next week as temperatures rise over 80 degrees Fahrenheit
  • U.S.
    Upper Midwest will have some potential for rainfall late next week and into the following weekend; until then the region will stay mostly dry
  • Frequent
    rain will fall in the central and southern U.S. Plains during the coming week to ten days possibly inducing some flooding over time.
    • Eastern
      Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, the Texas Blacklands, the northwestern U.S. Delta and the lower most Midwest will be wettest
      • Excessive
        rain is expected in a part of Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas wheat production areas
    • Wheat
      conditions will stay mostly good, but drier weather will be needed soon after this period to protect crops from wet weather disease and a threat to early maturing crop quality
  • West
    Texas rain potentials are still looking very good over the coming week
    • Scattered
      showers and thunderstorms will begin tonight night and be most significant Saturday night into Sunday until early to mid-week next week when the most generalized rainfall is expected
      • Good
        coverage is anticipated by this time next week with sufficient rain to improve planting moisture in much of the region
      • The
        intensity and coverage of rain has been reduced today, although all areas will get rain
        • The
          storm system in the central and southern Plains, Missouri and Arkansas may rob some of the moisture from falling in West Texas especially near the New Mexico border where rain amounts will be lightest
  • Cotton,
    corn, rice, soybean and sorghum areas of central and southern Texas will benefit from rain during the next ten days, although some local flooding may evolve
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience net drying during the coming week to ten days
    • Southern
      Georgia, northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and South
      Carolina will be included in the driest conditions
      • Good
        field working opportunities will remain, but the ground is expected to eventually become a bit too dry
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest unirrigated winter crop areas are still being stressed by dryness and there is no significant relief coming anytime soon
  • California,
    the Great Basin and most of the southwestern desert states will be dry through the next ten days
  • Southeast
    Canada corn, soybean and wheat  production areas are favorably moist and poised for good field progress and crop development this year
  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha crop areas will receive no meaningful rainfall through next Friday morning and then scattered showers will occur in many areas May 21-23 with resulting rainfall mostly under 0.50 inch
    • Additional
      showers are possible after May 23 in Brazil’s corn country, but confidence is low
  • The
    European continent will continue wet over the next ten days
    • Spain
      and Portugal will be the only drier biased countries
  • Russia’s
    New Lands are continuing to dry out  and this will become a market interest soon as the regions turns warmer than usual and becomes a little too dry
    • The
      area includes the southern Ural Mountains region, northern Kazakhstan and neighboring areas to the north in Russia’s southeastern New Lands and perhaps also impacting eastern portions of the lower Volga River Basin
    • This
      region is not too dry today and is expected to see aggressive spring planting and early crop development until the soil becomes too dry
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia and Luzon Island, Philippines still need greater rain
  • West
    Africa will receive lighter than usual rainfall for a while in the coming week
    • A
      boost in precipitation is needed, but unlikely for a while
  • Australia
    will be dry over the next ten days
    • Rain
      is needed to support better wheat, barley and canola planting conditions
  • Argentina
    weather will remain favorable for its harvest
    • Restricted
      rainfall and seasonable temperatures are expected in the next ten days
  • China
    rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin will be excessive in the coming week to ten days resulting in some flooding
    • The
      rain is spread out over multiple days and flooding should not be nearly as serious as that of last year
    • Some
      excessive rain has already been reported in random locations in the interior southern parts of China over the past several days
  • Portions
    of China’s North China Plain and Yellow River Basin will receive some needed rain through Saturday and into early Sunday easing dryness that has evolved recently and restoring favorable crop and field conditions in both winter and spring production areas
    • Hebei,
      Liaoning and Shandong will not receive nearly as much rain as other areas and will have a growing need for precipitation during the balance of this month
    • Shanxi,
      Henan and a few neighboring areas will be wettest
  • Northeastern
    China will continue to experience periodic rainfall that will keep spring planting moving along a little sluggishly for a while
  • Xinjiang
    China’s cotton areas will be cooler than  usual through the weekend and again late next week
    • The
      environment will be poor for degree day accumulations
    • Showers
      are expected today and Saturday, although most of the precipitation will be key very light
    • Temperatures
      will cool to the upper 50s and 60s in the northeast followed by lows in the middle and upper 30s into the 40s Saturday
      • Cooling
        in the southwest will force high temperatures to the 60s and 70s briefly through Saturday
    • Warming
      will occur early to mid-week next week with temperatures returning closer to normal
    • Another
      bout of cooling is expected late next week
    • The
      cool weather is slowing crop development and there is some concern over the overall condition of crops because of so much cool weather this spring
  • Mexico
    drought remains quite serious, but there is some rain and thunderstorms advertised for southern and eastern parts of the nation during the next two weeks
    • The
      precipitation will begin erratically and then increase over time this week and then decrease again next week
    • Water
      supply is quite low and winter crops in a few areas have not performed well
    • The
      moisture will help improve planting, emergence and establishment conditions for most summer crops in the wetter areas, but the west-central and northwest parts of the nation will continue quite dry.
  • Australia
    precipitation will be restricted over the coming week, although some showers are now being suggested for late next week and into the following weekend
    • Temperatures
      will be close to normal in the east and warmer than usual in the west
    • The
      bottom line supports aggressive planting in Western Australia where significant rain fell last week, but most other areas will wait on significant rain to bolster soil moisture for improved autumn planting and germination conditions in unirrigated areas
  • South
    Africa will not receive much rain in the coming two weeks favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Winter
      crop planting is under way and additional rain would be welcome for that purpose
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual
  • India
    winter crop harvesting has advanced well in the dry areas, but some rain has hindered fieldwork in a few areas
    • Rain
      will diminish over the next few days as the tropical cyclone moves northward off the west coast.
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index is mostly neutral at +5.57 and the index is expected to move higher for a while this weekend
  • North
    Africa rainfall is expected to be minimal over the next ten days
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual
    • Winter
      small grains will be rushed toward maturation faster than usual without much moisture
  • West-central
    Africa will see a mix of rain and sunshine through the coming week.
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average and rainfall will be below average
      • A
        boost in precipitation will be needed later this month to ensure soil moisture stays as good as possible and crop development continues normally
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall has been erratic in recent weeks and a boost in rainfall is under way in Kenya, Ethiopia and northern Tanzania during the coming week
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall will be favorably distributed in Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the mainland areas during the next two weeks
    • However,
      the mainland areas are reporting below to well below average rainfall recently and a boost in rain is needed in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and neighboring areas
    • Greater
      rain is also needed in the northern and western Philippines
      • Sulawesi
        also needs a boost in rainfall
    • Most
      of these areas will see improving rainfall May 20-26 with scattered showers and thunderstorms until then
      • Luzon
        Island, Philippines will be last to get significant rain
  • New
    Zealand precipitation for the next week to ten days will be periodic across North Island and more frequent in western portions of South Island
    • Temperatures
      will be a little cooler than usual

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
May 14:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 6:30pm London
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia, Dubai

Monday,
May 17:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop plantings – soybeans, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm
  • U.S.
    Green Coffee Association releases monthly green-coffee stockpiles
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Malaysia
    crude palm oil export tax for June (tentative)

Tuesday,
May 18:

  • China
    customs to publish trade data, including imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases cane, sugar and ethanol production data
  • International
    Sugar Organization and Datagro to hold New York sugar & ethanol conference

Wednesday,
May 19:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • BMO
    Farm to Market Conference, day 1
  • International
    Sugar Organization and Datagro to hold New York sugar & ethanol conference
  • HOLIDAY:
    Hong Kong

Thursday,
May 20:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China
    customs to release trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities such as soybeans
  • BMO
    Farm to Market Conference, day 2
  • Black
    Sea Grain conference
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysia
    May 1-20 palm oil export data
  • USDA
    total milk, red meat production, 3pm
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker

Friday,
May 21:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Black
    Sea Grain conference
  • U.S.
    Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

IHS
Markit 2021 Plantings:

Corn:
96.8 mil acres, up 3.26 mil from last month and 5.7 mil above USDA

Soybeans:
88.5 mil, down 1.3 mil from prior estimate and 885,000 above USDA

Other
Spring: 11.6 mil, down 130,000 from USDA

Cotton:
11.7 mil, down 355,000 from USDA

-Trade

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Traditional
funds were much less long than expected for corn, soybeans, wheat and meal. 

 

 

 

 

The
net long position gained over corn by a large amount for the week ending May 11.

 

Are
CBOT soybean oil prices getting into a dangerously high territory as the net long position for managed money funds fail to test early January net long highs? 

 

Macro

US
Retail Sales Advance (M/M) Apr: 0.0% (est 1.0%; prevR 10.7%; prev 9.8%)

US
Retail Sales Ex-Autos (M/M) Apr: -0.8% (est 0.6%; prevR 9.0%; prev 8.4%)

US
Retail Sales Ex-Autos, Gas Apr: -0.8% (est 0.3%; prevR 8.9%; prev 8.2%)

US
Retail Sales Control Group Apr: -1.5% (est -0.2%; prevR 7.6%; prev 6.9%)

US
Import Price Index (Y/Y) Apr: 10.6% (est 10.2%; prev 6.9%)

US
Import Price Index (M/M) Apr: 0.7% (est 0.6%; prevR 1.4%; prev 1.2%)

US
Import Price Index Ex-Petroleum (M/M) Apr: 0.7% (est 0.5%; prev 0.9%)

US
Export Price Index (Y/Y) Apr: 14.4% (est 14.0%; prev 9.1%)

US
Export Price Index (M/M) Apr: 0.8% (est 0.8%; prevR 2.4%; prev 2.1%)

Canadian
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) Mar: 3.5% (est 3.3%; prev -1.6%)

Canadian
Wholesale Trade Sales (M/M) Mar: 2.8% (est 1.0%; prev -0.7%)

US
Industrial Production (M/M) Apr: 0.7% (est 0.9%; prev 1.4%)

US
Capacity Utilization Apr: 74.9% (est 75.0%; prev 74.4%)

US
Manufacturing (SIC) Production Apr: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 2.7%)

 

Corn

 

  • China’s
    sow herd expanded 1.1% in April from the previous month and rebounded 23% over a year earlier. The sow herd in April stood at 97.6% of the end-2017 level, according to Reuters.  Newborn piglets up 58.8% from last year.  China has 180,000 large pig farms, up
    from 161,000 at the beginning of last year, according to the AgMin. 
  • FranceAgriMer
    reported the French corn planting progress at 95% complete as of May 10, up from 89% the previous week and 88% a year ago.
  • Ukraine
    planted about 74% percent of their planned corn area, or about 3.9 million tons.  Ukraine early spring plantings are near complete with more than 1.9 million hectares sowed as of May 13.  The area included 1.33 million hectares of barley, 229,600 hectares
    of peas, 186,800 hectares of oats and 174,700 hectares of spring wheat. 

 

EIA:
In 2020, U.S. exports of fuel ethanol fell for the second consecutive year

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47956&src=email

 

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