PDF Attached

 

Under
the 24-hour reporting system, USDA reported private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year.  Officials have not reached an agreement over the Black Sea grain export deal, but some are
optimistic a two-month extension will be reached. Negotiations will continue tomorrow. Brazil Conab raised their production estimates for soybeans and corn, although both below expectations. Soybeans gave back most of their gains headed into the close (old
crop higher and new-crop lower). Soybean meal held while soybean oil fell on product spreading. Grains fell on favorable North American weather and prospects for large 2023-24 supplies. Rain will fall across West Texas through the weekend, improving topsoil
moisture but don’t discount local flooding. The northern US Plains will trend wetter through the weekend. The central US Great Plains will see net drying to some light rain. Weather is favorable for much of the Midwest, but a couple light frost events may
occur bias north over the next week. Brazil will remain dry over the next 10-14 days. Europe will experience heavy rain and flooding during the coming week from Italy into the eastern Adriatic Sea region.

 

Fund
estimates as of May 11

 

November
soybeans/December corn

 

Weather

The
US CPC sees a 90 percent change for El Nino persisting into winter after a neutral transition overt the next couple of months.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

 

Map

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Map

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World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Beneficial
    rain was received in northwestern Kansas, east-central Colorado and southwestern Nebraska late Wednesday into this morning with several areas getting more than 1.00 inch and a few in northwestern Kansas getting more than 2.00 inches
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will receive waves of rain during the coming week, through portions of Kansas may not get enough to counter evaporation resulting in more crop stress later this month
    • The
      greatest rain is expected from northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas into southwestern Nebraska where enough will fall to saturate the topsoil and possibly induce localized areas of brief flooding
      • The
        ground is so dry, though, any flooding would dissipate quickly
    • Rain
      could become heavy in a part of the Texas Panhandle, and it may fall a little late in the season for wheat, but it will be perfect for corn, sorghum and cotton planting
  • Central
    and West Texas will be significant in this coming week
    • Flooding
      rain is expected in south-central parts of the state where multiple inches of rain are expected some of which will occur over a short period of time causing flood conditions
    • West
      Texas rainfall will vary from 0.50 to 1.50 inches near the New Mexico border and 1.00 to 2.00 inches in the Low Plains with 2.00 to 3.00 inches and possibly more in the Rolling Plains and a part of the southeastern Texas Panhandle
  • Western
    North Dakota, much of South Dakota and eastern Montana will benefit greatly from the general rain event expected tonight into the weekend
    • Rain
      totals of 1.00 to 3.00 inches will improve soil moisture for better planting, germination and emergence, though there will be some planting delay because of the moisture
    • Eastern
      North Dakota and Minnesota will get 0.50 to 1.50 inches except in southern Minnesota where 1.00 to 2.50 inches will result
      • This
        moisture will add to the planting delays that have already been present in recent weeks
  • Lower
    and eastern U.S. Midwest will continue to see lighter than usual rain, but soil moisture is nearly ideal and crop progress will continue to advance around the precipitation
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine with fieldwork accelerating as the rain frequency continues less than that of earlier this season
  • U.S.
    Delta will continue plenty moist over the next two weeks
  • California
    precipitation will be restricted for a while
  • Central
    Washington is quite dry and would benefit from some rain. In the meantime, temperatures will be quite warm to hot this weekend into next week add some heat stress to the drier bias in the region
  • Southeastern
    Canada’s Prairies will receive some significant rain tonight into Sunday with 1.00 to 3.00 inches from southeastern most Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba
    • Field
      working delays are likely for a little while after the rain ends
  • Western
    Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta will continue dry for at least another week and temperatures will rise well above normal once again especially late this weekend into early next week
    • Concern
      over crop emergence and establishment will continue until significant rain falls; there is some potential for crop failure in those areas where the crop germinates and emerges without significant rain and with minimal subsoil moisture
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada weather should be mostly good over the next ten days with a mix of rain and sunshine and mostly seasonable temperatures
  • South-central
    Europe will experience frequent rain and some flooding during the coming week from Italy into the eastern Adriatic Sea region where some damage to crops and property may result
    • Some
      replanting of spring and summer crops may be needed in a few areas, but it should not be widespread
  • Northeastern
    Algeria and northern Tunisia will receive periodic rain into Monday
    • The
      moisture boost will continue helpful for the latest maturing crops, but much of the precipitation will fall a little too late in the season for big changes in production
    • No
      relief is expected to the drought stricken areas of Morocco or northwestern Algeria, although rain is advertised for those areas in the second week of the two-week outlook
  • Eastern
    parts of Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos experienced some additional needed cooling and rainfall Wednesday after hot and dry conditions occurred last weekend
    • Additional
      rain is expected over the next several days offering more relief from the hottest and driest conditions
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Mocha evolved in the Bay of Bengal overnight
    • Torrential
      rain, strong wind and flooding will accompany the storm inland through northwestern Myanmar, southeastern Bangladesh where “some” damage to rice and sugarcane may result
  • India
    weather is expected to be mostly normal over the next ten days with a few pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms expected in the south and extreme east while most other areas are dry
  • Indonesia/Malaysia
    weather is still favorably wet through the next ten days
    • Recent
      rainfall was most significant in Indonesia and Malaysia while the Philippines dried down for a while
      • This
        trend may be perpetuated over the next couple of weeks
  • Drought
    in Yunnan, China will finally be eased into the weekend as moderate rain finally falls
    • Rice,
      corn and sugarcane among other crops will benefit, though it has been dry enough for a long enough period of time for production to be hurt
    • Additional
      rain will be needed
  • China’s
    greatest rain over the next ten days will be near and south of the Yangtze River, including the southwest where 2.00 to 6.00 inches and locally more than 8.00 inches will result
    • Some
      flooding is expected
    • Rapeseed
      areas will see less frequent and less significant rain which may help stop the damage that has occurred recently from excessive rainfall and flooding
  • Xinjiang,
    China is slowly warming after an unusually cool conditions earlier this week and especially last weekend
    • High
      temperatures Wednesday were in the 70s in the bulk of cotton and corn areas, although there were some 60-degree Fahrenheit highs in the northeast
    • Summer
      crop conditions are not very good because of the cool start to the planting season; both cotton and corn need much warmer weather
  • Xinjiang,
    China temperatures will trend warmer during the balance of this week with temperatures returning to normal this weekend
    • Some
      forecast models have suggested warmer than usual temperatures are possible this weekend into next week
  • Northwestern
    Kazakhstan and neighboring southern areas of Russia’s eastern New Lands will get some rain the remainder of this week with 0.50 to nearly 1.50 inches possible in a few areas, but most of the precipitation will be lighter leaving some need for more moisture
    • A
      close watch on this region is warranted because of decreasing topsoil moisture recently and additional warm and dry biased weather that may eventually return later this month
  • Other
    western CIS crop areas are expected to benefit from alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the next week to ten days
    • Some
      net drying is expected in northwestern Russia, the Baltic States and northeastern Belarus
    • Beneficial
      rain is expected in the southern Ural Mountains region, northwestern Kazakhstan and immediate neighboring areas of Russia’s southern eastern New Lands over the next few days
      • This
        rain will restore favorable topsoil moisture conditions after recent drying
  • Argentina
    will experience limited rainfall and warmer biased weather for much of the coming week
    • Summer
      crop maturation and harvesting will advance normally
    • Rain
      is possible late next week and into the following weekend
    • Greater
      precipitation is needed to improve wheat planting prospects
  • Rio
    Grande do Sul, Brazil will now experience some welcome drier biased weather for a while
    • Recent
      moisture was good for late season crops, but the state is plenty wet now and needs to dry down for a while
    • Rain
      should return at the end of next week or in the following weekend
  • Rain
    is expected in Bahia, northern Minas Gerais and Tocantins during balance of this week causing a disruption to farming activity; including the harvest of cotton, sugarcane and coffee
    • Most
      of the rain is not likely to be heavy and no damage will result
  • West-central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic rainfall over the next two weeks maintaining a mostly good environment for coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane
    • Mali
      and Burkina Faso rainfall will remain lighter than usual, although some welcome precipitation is expected that will raise topsoil moisture.
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall will continue periodic and mostly in a beneficial manner to support rice, coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and other crops
  • South
    Africa will dry down for the next few days before the next wave of rain evolves Saturday through Tuesday of next week
    • The
      rain will be good for winter wheat planting and establishment in the west, but it will slow summer crop maturation and harvest progress.
  • Australia
    rainfall during the coming week will be greatest in winter crop areas near to the coast.
    • Moisture
      totals will be light and a boost in rainfall will continue to be needed in interior Western Australia, interior South Australia and western New South Wales
    • Greater
      rain is needed in some interior crop areas
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting has advanced relatively well his year with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -3.62 and it should move lower over the next several days

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
May 11:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Brazil’s
    Conab issues production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices
  • EARNINGS:
    GrainCorp

Friday,
May 12: