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USDA:
Private exporters reported the cancellation of sales of 272,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
USD
was higher by 22 points and WTI crude oil was up 41 cents. Rapid US planting progress and improving US weather along with export demand concerns sent US ags lower. Most of the US will see rain one time or another this week, lighter bias the west-central Plains.
Texas will see most rain over the next 7 days. There is a change of two light frost events next week for parts of the Northern Plains and Midwest. Brazil’s corn area will dry down this week.
A
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 11,000 thousand barrels to 987k (980-997 range) from the previous week and stocks up 152,000 barrels to 23.515 million.
StatsCan
Canadian March 31 stocks were seen supportive for wheat and canola, but other factors today influenced price movement.
Fund
estimates as of May 9
WEATHER
TO WATCH
-
Northern
U.S. Plains will trend wetter later this week and into the early weekend -
Significant
rain is expected, but it may be greatest in the driest areas of the western Dakotas rather than the wetter areas in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota -
Rainfall
of 1.00 to 3.00 inches may impact some of these western areas -
Rainfall
in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota will range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches -
The
moisture will interfere with the region’s much needed drying trend and further delay farming activity -
Recent
rain in central Alberta, Canada has been good for spring planting of especially after the previous bout of hot and dry weather -
More
heat and dryness is coming later this week and into next week making the rain even more important -
East-central
Alberta, west-central Saskatchewan and areas to the north in Saskatchewan have been missing recent rain and will continue doing so
-
Net
drying will continue in these areas and there will also be a return of warm weather this weekend into next week that will accelerate drying and raise more worry about crop development potential in the driest areas -
U.S.
central Plains rainfall is expected to continue erratically and lighter than usual maintaining concern for winter wheat and some early summer crops -
Rain
will fall in many areas, but amounts will be light for much of western Kansas, southeastern Colorado and immediate neighboring areas -
Torrential
rain is expected in a part of central Texas this weekend resulting in serious flooding -
The
area impacted will be a minor corn and sorghum production region, but the impact will still be significant especially in any urban location that gets involved -
West
Texas will receive significant rain Friday through Sunday with a little more into Monday -
Rainfall
of 0.50 to 1.50 inches is expected in the high Plains region while 1.00 to 3.00 inches occurs in eastern portions of the region including the Rolling Plains -
Follow
up rain after this weekend is expected the be limited -
Aggressive
planting of corn, sorghum and cotton is expected If the forecast verifies -
Western
and central Mexico will continue in the midst of drought while rain falls periodically in the eastern and southern parts of the nation into the next ten days -
Seasonal
rains usually begin in southern Mexico during May and early June before advancing northward during the balance of June and early July -
Ontario
and Quebec will continue in a milder than usual temperature regime for a while and that may lead to slower planting of corn and soybeans that usually begins after May 15 -
Europe
will experience heavy rain and flooding during the coming week from Italy into the eastern Adriatic Sea region where some damage to crops and property may result -
Some
replanting of spring and summer crops may be needed in a few areas, but it should not be widespread -
Northeastern
Algeria and northern Tunisia reported rain Monday and more will occur periodically over the next week
-
The
moisture boost will be helpful for the latest maturing crops -
No
relief is expected to the drought stricken areas of Morocco or northwestern Algeria -
Eastern
parts of Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos experienced some much needed cooling Monday due to showers and thunderstorms that evolved -
Excessive
heat and dryness occurred during the weekend stressing livestock and unirrigated crops throughout the region -
Additional
rain is expected over the next several days offering more relief from the hottest and driest conditions -
A
tropical cyclone will evolve Wednesday or Thursday in the Bay of Bengal before moving into northwestern Myanmar this weekend -
Torrential
rain, strong wind and flooding will accompany the storm inland -
Northwestern
Myanmar, southeastern Bangladesh will be most impacted and “some” damage to rice and sugarcane may result -
India
weather is expected to be mostly normal over the next ten days with a few pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms expected in the south and extreme east while most other areas are dry -
Indonesia/Malaysia
weather is still favorably wet through the next ten days -
Recent
rainfall was most significant in Indonesia and Malaysia while the Philippines dried down for a while -
This
trend may be perpetuated over the next couple of weeks -
Drought
in Yunnan, China will finally be eased late this week and into the weekend as moderate rain finally falls -
Rice,
corn and sugarcane among other crops will benefit, though it has been dry enough for a long enough period of time for production to be hurt -
Additional
rain will be needed -
China’s
greatest rain over the next ten days will be in the southwest where 2.00 to 6.00 inches and locally more than 8.00 inches will result -
Some
flooding is expected -
Rapeseed
areas will see less frequent and less significant rain which may help stop the damage that has occurred recently from excessive rainfall and flooding -
Xinjiang,
China was unusually cool during the weekend and only warmed slightly Monday -
High
temperatures Monday were in the 50s Fahrenheit in northeastern cotton and corn areas while in the 60s and 70s in western parts of the province where much of the cotton is produced -
Summer
crop conditions are not very good because of the cool start to the planting season; both cotton and corn need much warmer weather -
Xinjiang,
China temperatures will trend warmer during the middle to latter part of this week with temperatures returning to normal by the weekend
-
Some
forecast models have suggested warmer than usual temperatures are possible this weekend into next week
-
Northwestern
Kazakhstan and neighboring southern areas of Russia’s eastern New Lands will get some rain this week with 1.00 to nearly 2.50 inches possible in a few areas, but most of the precipitation will be lighter leaving some need for more moisture -
A
close watch on this region is warranted because of decreasing topsoil moisture recently and additional warm and dry biased weather that may eventually return later this month -
Other
western CIS crop areas are expected to benefit from alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the next week to ten days -
Argentina
will experience limited rainfall and warmer biased weather for much of the coming week to ten days -
Summer
crop maturation and harvesting will advance normally -
Rio
Grande do Sul, Brazil received additional rainfall Monday, but will now experience some welcome drier biased weather for a while -
Recent
moisture was good for late season crops, but the state is plenty wet now and needs to dry down for a while -
Rain
is expected in Bahia and Tocantins during mid- to late-week this week causing a disruption to farming activity; including the harvest of cotton, sugarcane and coffee -
Most
of the rain is not likely to be heavy -
West-central
Africa will continue to experience periodic rainfall over the next two weeks maintaining a mostly good environment for coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane -
Mali
and Burkina Faso rainfall will remain lighter than usual, although some welcome precipitation is expected that will raise topsoil moisture.
-
East-central
Africa rainfall will continue periodic and mostly in a beneficial manner to support rice, coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and other crops -
South
Africa will dry down for the next few days before the next wave of rain evolves Saturday through Tuesday of next week
-
The
rain will be good for winter wheat planting and establishment in the west, but it will slow summer crop maturation and harvest progress.
-
Australia
rainfall during the coming week will be greatest in winter crop areas near to the coast.
-
Moisture
totals will be light and a boost in rainfall will continue to be needed in interior Western Australia, interior South Australia and western New South Wales -
Drought
continues in central and western Mexico while recent rain in the east has improved crop and field conditions -
Central
Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -1.98 and it should move erratically lower over the next several days
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Tuesday,
May 9:
- Canada’s
StatsCan to release wheat, soybean, canola and barley reserves data - China’s
first batch of April trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports
Wednesday,
May 10:
- EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Malaysian
Palm Oil Board’s data for May output, exports and stockpiles - Malaysia’s
May 1-10 palm oil exports - Sugar
production and cane crush data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
Thursday,
May 11:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - Brazil’s
Conab issues production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans - New
Zealand Food Prices - EARNINGS:
GrainCorp
Friday,
May 12:
- USDA’s
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm eastern - China’s
agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans