PDF Attached

 

Calls:
(planting progress, polls for USDA and weather are drivers)

Soybeans
unchanged to 3 lower

Corn
unchanged to 2 lower

Wheat
down 2-4 (predicated on good rain for US WW areas)

 

 

Quiet
session with selected countries on holiday. Choppy trade occurred for the CBOT agriculture markets, in part to profit taking from a few rallied late last week (SBO for example) and positioning ahead of many reports due out this week.  Reuters and other polls
are expected to show a large discrepancy for the low and high end of trade expectations. This could create some volatility when new-crop USDA numbers are released on Friday. US CPI will be updated on Wednesday. StatsCan Canadian stocks will be updated Tuesday.
There was some chatter over ENSO patterns today with heat waves rolling across Asia. Something to monitor long term.

 

El
Nino versus La Nina – North American Northern Hemisphere refresher:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html#:~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20causes%20the%20Pacific,life%20off%20the%20Pacific%20coast.

 

Fund
estimates as of May 8

 

 

 

Weather

Map

Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Excessive
    heat occurred in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia during the weekend with extreme highs of 36 to 111 degrees Fahrenheit
    • Records
      were set because of the heat and stress to many crops (including coffee, citrus, sugarcane and corn)  resulted
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia are expected to see frequent rainfall over the next five days improving topsoil moisture as pre-monsoonal precipitation slowly increases
    • A
      tropical cyclone passing through Myanmar to southwestern China may lead to another bout of drier and warmer weather briefly during the weekend and early next week
  • India
    weather is expected to be mostly normal over the next ten days with a few pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms expected in the south and extreme east while most other areas are dry
  • A
    tropical cyclone will evolve in the Bay of Bengal this week and could impact Myanmar and/or Bangladesh and a part of India’s Far Eastern States late this week and into the weekend
    • Very
      poor model agreement on this system is present today and the forecast should be closely monitored for changes
  • Indonesia/Malaysia
    weather is still favorably wet through the next ten days
    • Recent
      rainfall was most significant in Indonesia and Malaysia while the Philippines dried down for a while
      • This
        trend may be perpetuated over the next couple of weeks
  • China
    weekend rainfall was abundant to excessive in areas south of the Yangtze River where flooding resulted.
    • One
      location in northwestern Fujian reported 28.50 inches of rain since Friday and another in Jiangxi reported 27.32 inches while most other areas in Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian and western Zhejiang reported 3.00 to 8.00 inches.
    • Damage
      to maturing rapeseed and some early season rice likely resulted
    • Rain
      also fell from eastern Sichuan and far western Hubei through Shaanxi to Shanxi where 2.00 to more than 5.16 inches resulted in some areas.
    • Limited
      rainfall occurred elsewhere in China with Yunnan and much of the North China Plain dry or mostly dry as were Heilongjiang, central and northern Jilin and much of Inner Mongolia.
  • Drought
    in Yunnan, China will finally be eased late this week and into the weekend as moderate rain finally falls
    • Rice,
      corn and sugarcane among other crops will benefit, though it has been dry enough for a long enough period of time for production to be hurt
    • Additional
      rain will be needed
  • China’s
    greatest rain over the next ten days will be in the southwest where 2.00 to 6.00 inches and locally more than 8.00 inches will result
    • Some
      flooding is expected
    • Rapeseed
      areas will see less frequent and less significant rain which may help stop the damage that has occurred recently from excessive rainfall and flooding
  • Xinjiang,
    China was unusually cool during the weekend
    • Northeastern
      areas reported highs in the 40s western areas reported highs in the 50s and 60s with a few readings to 73 Fahrenheit
    • Summer
      crop conditions are not very good because of the cool start to the planting season; both cotton and corn need much warmer weather
  • Xinjiang,
    China temperatures will trend warmer during the middle to latter part of this week with temperatures returning to normal by the weekend
    • A
      meld to warm temperature regime is likely thereafter through most of next week
  • Drought
    relief is expected in northeastern Algeria and Tunisia this week with rainfall of 0.50 to 1.50 inches and local totals over 2.00 inches
    • Dryness
      has already hurt production this year, but there might be a few crops that can still benefit from the moisture boost
    • Other
      areas in North Africa and in much of Spain will be dry
      • Eastern
        Spain may get a few showers of benefit this week while most key crop areas stay dry
  • Europe’s
    greatest precipitation through May 20 will be from southeast to northwest where 1.00 to 3.00 inches will impact many areas with a few areas from Italy and the Alps into the western Balkan Countries getting 3.00 to more than 5.00 inches
    • Some
      local flooding is possible
    • Northeastern
      Europe will not receive nearly as much rain
  • Northwestern
    Kazakhstan and neighboring southern areas of Russia’s eastern New Lands will get some rain this week with 1.00 to nearly 2.50 inches possible in a few areas, but most of the precipitation will be lighter leaving some need for more moisture
    • A
      close watch on this region is warranted because of decreasing topsoil moisture recently and additional warm and dry biased weather expected in the same areas again this weekend into most of next week
  • Other
    western CIS crop areas will likely benefit from a drier bias over the next week to ten days
  • Canada’s
    Southwestern Prairies will continue drought stricken through the next two weeks, despite a few showers periodically
  • Canada’s
    eastern and far western Prairies may experience some planting delay because of periodic rainfall, this week although the impact will be low
    • A
      new wave of heat and dryness is expected near and beyond mid-month, impacting Alberta and western Saskatchewan more than areas to the east
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada will experience a more seasonable temperature regime this week after being cooler and wetter than usual recently
    • Drier
      and warmer weather is needed to induce a better environment for wheat development and spring planting that often begins around mid-month
      • Warming
        is expected soon
  • U.S.
    weekend precipitation was greatest in the northern Plains and northern Midwest as well as the Pacific Northwest, including northern California
    • Rainfall
      was erratically distributed with some totals of 0.50 to 1.65 inches from Nebraska to eastern and south-central South Dakota and in northwestern Minnesota
    • Rainfall
      of 0.50 to 2.00 inches also occurred in parts of Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and from southeastern Illinois to eastern Ohio northward into south-central Michigan
    • Rainfall
      of 1.00 to 2.00 inches also occurred in sugarcane areas of Louisiana and eastward into southern most Mississippi while the Blacklands of Texas reported 0.30 to 1.00 inch with one location in central Texas getting 2.19 inches
    • Kansas
      and Colorado through western Texas was dry along with the lower Midwest, Tennessee River Valley and northern Delta as well as the southeastern states
    • Northern
      California received 1.00 to 2.26 inches of moisture
  • U.S.
    temperatures were hot in the southern Plains with 80- and 90-degree highs from Kansas and Missouri to southern Texas
    • Extreme
      highs over 100 Fahrenheit occurred in a few Texas Oklahoma and readings reached 97 in southeastern wheat areas of Kansas
  • U.S.
    temperatures will continue above normal in the central and southern Plains and a part of the western Corn Belt for while this week
    • Additional
      highs in the 80s and 90s are expected and some of the heat will expand into the southeastern states
    • 70-
      and 80-degree highs are expected in the Midwest later this week as well
    • The
      warmth will accelerate drying rates between rain events
  • U.S.
    rainfall is expected in all major crop areas at one time or another during the next ten days; including hard red winter wheat areas, West Texas and a part of the northwestern Plains all of which have been drier than usual at times.
    • Rainfall
      may be heavy at times in central, eastern and southern Texas
    • Sufficient
      amounts are expected in the northern Plains and upper Midwest to keep farmers out of their fields for a while
    • Eastern
      Midwest and southeastern states rainfall may be lightest and least frequent
    • No
      rain is expected in the southwestern states
    • Hard
      red winter wheat areas will get 0.10 to 0.75 inch in the west-central Plains with some areas failing to get enough rain to counter evaporation while other areas receive 0.60 to 1.50 inches and a number of areas in the east and south will get over 2.00 inches
      • Western
        Nebraska and northeastern Colorado may also get some significant rain
    • West
      Texas rainfall may range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches and locally more with much of that occurring this coming weekend into early next week
  • Central
    and eastern Argentina received some welcome rain during the weekend easing dryness
    • Areas
      east of a line from northwestern Cordoba to central Buenos Aires were wettest with 0.20 to 0.60 inch common and some areas from Santa Fe to northeastern Buenos Aires and Entre Rios receiving 0.60 to 1.69 inches
      • Summer
        crop harvesting was disrupted, but the moisture was good for future wheat planting if there is some follow up moisture
    • Southwestern
      Argentina was left dry
  • Argentina
    will be mostly dry through May 19 favoring the resumption of summer crop harvesting and drying trend in the soil again
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above normal with the warmest weather likely during the weekend and next week
  • Brazil
    weather during the weekend was dry in much of center west and center south crop areas where it should remain dry or mostly dry over the next two weeks
    • Drying
      is normal for this time of year, though late planted Safrinha crops will require moisture late this month and in June to ensure the best yield potentials.
  • Rio
    Grande do Sul, Brazil received significant rainfall during the weekend with 1.00 to 2.83 inches reported through Sunday morning.
    • The
      moisture was good for late season crops, but some drying is now needed
  • Rain
    will linger into Monday in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and then it, too, will dry out over the coming ten days
  • Rain
    is expected in Bahia and Tocantins during mid- to late-week this week causing a disruption to farming activity; including the harvest of cotton, sugarcane and coffee
    • Most
      of the rain is not likely to be heavy
  • West-central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic rainfall over the next two weeks maintaining a mostly good environment for coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane
    • Mali
      and Burkina Faso rainfall will remain lighter than usual, although some welcome precipitation is expected that will raise topsoil moisture.
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall will continue periodic and mostly in a beneficial manner to support rice, coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and other crops
  • South
    Africa rainfall increased during the weekend slowing summer crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Some
      rain will continue early this week followed by some welcome drying
    • Harvest
      delays will continue for a while, though some winter crops might benefit from the moisture in Free State
    • Far
      western parts of the nation where most of the wheat and canola is produced will be left dry
  • Australia
    rainfall during the coming week will be greatest in winter crop areas near to the coast.