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WTI
crude was up $2.76, USD 12 points lower and US equities sharply higher. US jobs reported was supportive. CBOT agriculture markets ended mostly higher (back month meal was lower) on follow through short covering. Product spreading limited grain in nearby meal.
US wheat areas have rain in the forecast through at least mid-next week. We look for an improvement of 2 points for the G/E categories for winter wheat when updated on Monday.
The
US weather forecast improved a touch from that of Thursday. Funds are holding a much larger short position in corn than expected. Trade estimates for USDA will be out as early as mid-Monday.
Fund
estimates as of May 5
WEATHER
TO WATCH
-
Not
many changes around the world today -
Rain
has begun from Cordoba, Argentina to Entre Rios and Uruguay this morning and it will increase so that rain totals of 0.50 to 1.50 inches results with local totals over 2.00 inches in northern Cordoba -
There
are already a few amounts over 1.25 inches noted in northern Cordoba through 1230 GMT -
Not
much other rain is likely in Argentina crop areas during the coming week to ten days, other than a few sporadic showers infrequently -
Brazil’s
center south and center west crop areas will steadily dry down over the next ten days to two weeks
-
Safrinha
crop conditions will remain favorable, although topsoil moisture is going to be depleted soon in parts of Mato Grosso and Goias raising the need for rain late this month and in early June for late planted crops -
Subsoil
moisture will carry on normal crop development for the next couple of weeks -
Rio
Grande do Sul, Brazil and Paraguay will be plenty wet during the coming week with a few areas possibly getting a little too much moisture -
Coffee,
citrus and sugarcane in Brazil are maturing favorably with some early harvesting already under way -
Coffee
and citrus production should be high this year while sugarcane yields may be off a little bit because of too much rain at times in the heart of the production region and late season dryness in the minor areas of the north -
Spain,
Portugal and North Africa will continue to dry down over the next week -
Some
rain is predicted for northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia a week from now, but it is still questionable how significant that rain will be -
Drought
has already cut into production from all three of these regions -
Central
Europe will be plenty wet if not a little too wet in the coming week, though no harm will come to crops -
Cold
weather will continue to impact northeastern Europe over the next week with the next coldest period of time coming up late this week into early next week
-
No
crop damage is likely except possibly to flowering fruit trees -
Northern
Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will get some rain to ease dryness next week, but some of the medium range computer forecast models have suggested another ridge of high pressure is possible near and shortly after mid-month that
could return the drying trend -
Relief
from dryness will not be uniform, but any precipitation will be welcome -
Topsoil
moisture is running a little short, but subsoil moisture is still favorable -
The
drier bias has been great for advancing spring fieldwork, but another round of warm and dry weather may prove to be stressful if significant rain does not fall first -
India
weather has trended drier and warmer and this will prevail through mid-month -
The
change will induce some beneficial improvement for crops and harvest progress after too much rain fell last weekend and earlier this week -
All
of eastern China will get rain at one time or another through the next ten days, although the Northeast Provinces will see the lightest precipitation
-
A
little too much rain may fall in the rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River Basin and areas to the south where crop maturation and harvesting could be threatened by frequent rain -
The
Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will see the best weather for winter crop development and for the planting of spring and summer crops -
Xinjiang,
China continues to suffer from a cooler than usual spring -
Northeastern
areas will remain quite cool with frequent showers and drizzle through the weekend and then slowly improving conditions next week
-
Western
Xinjiang, where most of the cotton is produced, will seed cool and dry conditions through the weekend and then slowly warming next week back to a more normal temperature regime -
Summer
crop conditions are not very good because of the cool start to the planting season -
Canada’s
Southwestern Prairies will continue drought stricken through the next two weeks, despite a few showers periodically -
Canada’s
eastern and far western Prairies may experience some planting delay because of periodic rainfall, although the impact will be low -
Excessive
heat in the western Prairies of Canada this week raised soil temperatures and accelerated drying, but the environment was very good for aggressive planting in areas that are not seriously drought stricken -
Extreme
highs in the 80s and a few lower 90s Fahrenheit were noted in the past few days -
The
warmest weather has occurred in central Alberta impacting areas as far to the north as Edmonton, Whitecourt, Vegreville and Lloydminster -
Cooling
is expected this weekend -
Ontario
and Quebec, Canada have been quite cool this week and rainy at times too -
Drier
and warmer weather is needed to induce a better environment for wheat development and spring planting that often begins around mid-month -
Warming
is expected soon -
Most
U.S. crop areas from the Pacific Northwest to the Atlantic coast, including all of the Plains, will get rain at one time or another during the next week to ten days -
The
moisture will interfere with some planting, but the long term outlook should be mostly good -
Planting
delays are most concerning in the northeastern U.S. Plains, upper Midwest and neighboring areas of eastern Canada’s Prairies where fieldwork has been limited by cool and moist conditions this spring -
Poor
drying conditions are expected until near mid-month -
The
lower and eastern Midwest and southeastern states will experience the best mix of weather with fieldwork and crop development advancing most favorably in those areas -
West-central
and southwestern parts of the high Plains region will not get much rain until mid- to late-week next week and the moisture that falls will be brief, although beneficial -
West
Texas will also get some rain Tuesday into Wednesday of next week and then more significantly in the following weekend -
U.S.
Delta will be a little wet along with the Texas Blacklands, Coastal Bend and South Texas – mostly during the middle and latter part of next week, although some rain will fall sooner than that
-
U.S.
southern Plains, lower Midwest and Delta will become much warmer this weekend and early next week with daily high temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit -
Some
hotter temperatures are expected in interior southern Texas -
River
flooding continues along the upper half of the Mississippi and in the Red River Basin of the North and this process will continue through much of this month -
Prevent
plant is still a possibility for a part of these region’s and in Manitoba Canada, but much will be determined by rainfall that occurs later this month and in June -
A
significant break from rain is needed along with warm temperatures to get fields in better shape for planting -
California
will receive some rain and mountain snowfall during the coming week maintaining a strong potential for flooding as snow melts in the mountains and then new rain and snow fall -
Western
and southern Australia will receive showers in the coming week, but interior crop areas will remain drier biased -
Western
Australia needs greater rainfall to improve wheat, barley and canola planting and establishment conditions -
Southeastern
Australia is plenty moist for winter crop planting and early emergence, but greater rain is still needed for some areas -
Summer
crop harvesting in east-central Australia is advancing well with little change likely -
A
tropical cyclone may evolve in the Bay of Bengal this weekend and may threaten Myanmar sugarcane and rice production potentials -
Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia are getting more routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms, but resulting rainfall has continued to be lighter than usual
-
Monsoonal
precipitation usually begins in the south late this month -
Indonesia
and Malaysia will continue to experience frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days – no area is expected to become too dry or excessively wet -
Philippines
rainfall will be timely, but there is need for greater rain in the north -
Middle
East soil moisture is greatest in Turkey, but there is need for more moisture in areas to the south and east -
The
environment is not critical, but cotton and rice would benefit from greater rain and improved soil moisture -
Wheat
production was mostly good this year -
South
Africa rainfall will be infrequent and light enough over the next ten days to support most late season crop needs while allowing some harvest progress to continue -
Today’s
forecast is a little wetter than that of Wednesday for eastern parts of the nation -
Cotton
areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso need significant rain to support cotton planting and establishment in unirrigated areas -
Some
showers are possible during the second week of the forecast -
Drought
continues in central and western Mexico while recent rain in the east has improved crop and field conditions -
East-central
Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops -
Central
Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was 0.52 and it should move erratically over the next several days
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Friday,
May 5:
- FAO
World Food Price Index - April
U.S. jobs report - Malaysia’s
May 1-5 palm oil export data - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - HOLIDAY:
Japan, South Korea, Thailand