PDF Attached


Hikes By 25Bps; Target Range Stands At 5.00% – 5.25% 

Interest Rate On Reserves Balances Raised By 25Bps To 5.15% 


crude oil was down sharply again, back below $70/barrel. The USD was off more than 56 points by late afternoon trading. Attached is out updated US acreage table.
Sea tensions sent wheat and corn higher today. Russia accused Ukraine of drone attack on Kremlin, a couple days before the two countries are going to sit down and talk about the Black Sea grain export deal. Russia will also hold talks with United Nations officials
in Moscow on the same date.  Soybeans rallied late to close higher. Meal fell and soybean oil recovered. The US weather forecast improved from that of Tuesday. The lower Great plains will see rain through the end of the week. The southwestern areas of the
Midwest will be wet Thursday before moving into the south central areas Friday.


estimates as of May 3



snowpack is receding for the northern US and a problem for some California producers with risk of flooding from upcoming Sierra runoff.



Description automatically generated



Description automatically generated


SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast


Weather Inc.


  • Drought
    in Alberta and western Saskatchewan is unlikely to abate during the next two weeks, despite a few showers possible
  • Unusual
    warmth occurred in central Alberta Monday and Tuesday with an extreme highs of 86 and 84 Fahrenheit respectively; many temperatures were in the 70s and lower 80s
    • The
      heat will continue into Thursday with some of the warmest conditions shifting into western Saskatchewan
  • Drought
    will continue in Spain, Portugal and northwestern Africa through the coming week and perhaps longer; although, some rain will fall in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia briefly next week
  • Northern
    Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will continue dry and warm for another week, but some relief may come along in the May 10-16 period.
    • Dryness
      has been supporting aggressive spring planting and does not (yet) pose much of a threat to long term crop development unless than pattern resumes later this month or this summer
  • U.S.
    Midwest weather will improve with drier and warmer conditions through Thursday
    • Rain
      will develop in the lower Midwest Friday into Saturday with 0.40 to 1.50 inches resulting
    • Alternating
      periods of rain and sunshine are expected through next week in all of the Midwest favoring spring fieldwork and early season crop development
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas received some welcome rain overnight with 0.05 to 0.30 inch common and local totals of 0.40 to 1.03 inches
    • Additional
      showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight, again this weekend and more next week
      • The
        precipitation will be sporadic and mostly light
      • Warm
        temperatures will induce strong evaporation and drying rate resulting in limited relief from drought
      • Atmospheric
        moisture will be increasing and that will help to set the stage for better rainfall later this month
  • Texas
    Blacklands, Coastal Bend and to a lesser degree South Texas will have opportunity for generalized rain during the coming ten days favoring long term crop development
    • Some
      of this rain will reach into Louisiana favoring sugarcane and rice areas for rain as well
  • Red
    River Basin of the North moisture profile will remain abundant to excessive for a little while longer due to rain expected Friday that will linger through early next week resulting in 0.30 to 1.00 inch of moisture is expected with local totals to 1.50 inches
    falls over the already moist topsoil
  • River
    flooding continues along the upper half of the Mississippi and in the Red River Basin of the North and this process will continue through much of this month
    • Prevent
      plant is still a possibility for a part of these region’s and in Manitoba Canada, but much will be determined by rainfall that occurs later this month and in June
      • A
        significant break from rain is needed along with warm temperatures to get fields in better shape for planting
  • U.S.
    Delta will be plenty moist over the next ten days keeping some farming activity a little slow
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks maintaining good crop development conditions, but slowing fieldwork at times
  • Argentina’s
    drier bias will continue over the next ten days maintaining a good summer crop maturation and harvest outlook, but a big boost in soil moisture is needed for winter wheat planting
    • Wheat
      planting does not usually begin until late this month and June is the most important month for getting crops planted on time
  • Center
    south and center west Brazil is drying down, but that is normal for this time of year
    • Concern
      remains over long term soil moisture for the late planted corn
      • Rain
        will be needed in late May and early June to support the very latest planted crops through reproduction and filling
  • Coffee,
    citrus and sugarcane in Brazil are maturing favorably with some early harvesting already under way
    • Coffee
      and citrus production should be high this year while sugarcane yields may be off a little bit because of too much rain at times in the heart of the production region and late season dryness in the minor areas of the north
  • Cold
    weather will continue to impact northeastern Europe over the next week with the next coldest period of time coming up late this week into early next week
    • No
      crop damage is likely except possibly to flowering fruit trees
  • Europe
    and the western CIS will receive frequent bouts of rain during the next ten days resulting in favorable soil moisture
    • This
      does not include the Iberian Peninsula or the eastern CIS New Lands where dryness is an ongoing concern
  • India’s
    weather will continue unsettled over the next ten days and additional waves of rain will impact various parts of the nation, but big soakings of rain like that of this past weekend are not expected to occur again.
    • The
      far north and extreme south will be wettest at least for a while
    • Field
      working delays have occurred and some of the wettest areas have been suffering from quality declines
  • Western
    Australia has a very good opportunity for rain this weekend and again next week
    • The
      two rain events should bolster topsoil moisture for improved wheat, barley and canola planting, emergence and establishment
  • Other
    areas in Australia will continue to experience favorable weather for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting
  • All
    of eastern China’s agricultural areas will receive rain at one time or another during the next two weeks.
    • East-central
      and southeastern parts of the nation will be wettest, but the rain will be spread out enough to limit the incidence of flooding
    • Crop
      conditions should stay mostly favorable, although less rain is needed in rapeseed areas to protect crop quality as the crop matures and is harvested
    • Northeast
      China will be driest
  • Xinjiang,
    China continues to battle periods of cool weather and needs to warm up and be consistently warm to support cotton, corn and other crop development.
    • Some
      warming is expected over the next few days, but a new surge of cool air is expected late this weekend and next week dropping temperatures back to the 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit in the key crop areas of the west
      • Much
        cooler conditions are expected in the far northeast
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia are getting more routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms, but resulting rainfall has continued to be lighter than usual
    • Monsoonal
      precipitation usually begins in the south late this month
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia will continue to experience frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days – no area is expected to become too dry or excessively wet
  • Philippines
    rainfall will be timely, but there is need for greater rain in the north
  • Middle
    East soil moisture is greatest in Turkey, but there is need for more moisture in areas to the south and east
    • The
      environment is not critical, but cotton and rice would benefit from greater rain and improved soil moisture
    • Wheat
      production was mostly good this year
  • South
    Africa rainfall will be infrequent and light enough over the next ten days to support most late season crop needs while allowing some harvest progress to continue
  • Cotton
    areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso need significant rain to support cotton planting and establishment in unirrigated areas
    • Some
      showers are possible during the second week of the forecast
  • Drought
    continues in central and western Mexico while recent rain in the east has improved crop and field conditions
  • East-central
    Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was 0.33 and it should move erratically over the next several days

World Weather, INC.


Ag calendar

May 3:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
    Japan, Vietnam

May 4:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price
    Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh

May 5:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Malaysia’s
    May 1-5 palm oil export data
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
    Japan, South Korea, Thailand